Opinion

The Great Debate

The post-bubble world: what’s next?

By Guest Contributor
October 6, 2010

The American Enterprise Institute is hosting a panel with Nouriel Roubini and Reuters contributor Chris Whalen on “living in the post-bubble world: what’s next?” It is being livestreamed today from 2pm – 4pm ET. You can watch the video of it here:

From AEI’s website:

Americans are living in the wake of the great credit bubble of the twenty-first century. They have experienced the crisis of its collapse, massive increases in government intervention and debt, and now more uncertainty. What’s next? Are we in for a long slog, or will the economy rebound? What will happen to housing prices, mortgage defaults, commercial real estate, the banking system, and post-bubble Europe? Will we have defaults on sovereign debt? Deflation? How big will the Fed’s balance sheet get? What steps should be taken now? These and related questions will be discussed by our panel of economic and financial experts.

The debate is moderated by AEI fellow and former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago Alex J. Pollock. Other panelists are:

Panelists: Mark Fogarty, National Mortgage News
Desmond Lachman, AEI
John H. Makin, AEI
R. Christopher Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics
Thomas Zimmerman, UBS Investment Bank
Nouriel Roubini, New York University
Moderator: Alex J. Pollock, AEI

Mark Fogarty, National Mortgage News
Desmond Lachman, AEI
John H. Makin, AEI
Thomas Zimmerman, UBS Investment Bank

Comments
6 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

I can’t predict the future – in truth, no one can, although that doesn’t stop people from trying – but I will go on record with this: Nouriel Roubini, the guy who allegedly predicted the housing collapse, will be all gloom and doom in this panel discussion; endless gloom and doom in this panel discussion; relentless gloom and doom in this panel discussion. For a break from his gloom and doom-mongering, he may perhaps tout his most recent book, detailing his gloom-and-doom scenarios more fully. Find it online or at your favourite bookseller!

Posted by Gotthardbahn | Report as abusive
 

For some positive thoughts on the future, see http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS22844 4+05-Oct-2010+BW20101005

Posted by Plunkett | Report as abusive
 

These speakers all treat the USA as unitary while it most certainly is not. The USA has never been even remotely as fragmented ethnically and racially and politically as it is today. These fragments are all different from one another in being impacted by the current economic downturn.

The potential for civil strife in the USA is higher than it has been in over a century. That should not be discounted.

Posted by txgadfly | Report as abusive
 

In early 2005, my boss, Angelo Mozilo frequently predicted a mortgage-led recession and the Mortgage Bankers Association picked it up with predictions of over 80,000 people in the mortgage industry expected to lose their jobs by the end of 2005. The timing was off when Countrywide Home Loans was unexpectedly successful at selling huge numbers of refis and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELoCs), increasing the debt load. Mozilo also pushed hard for subprime loans, expanding the debt even more. The Collateralized-Debt Obligations packaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) of AIG also fed the gambling house-of-cards.

So, when did Roubini “predict” the housing collapse?

BTW, thousands of people in the mortgage industry were well aware that millions of high-risk loans were being sold, encouraged by Wall Street with the backing of Moody’s (on of Warren Buffet’s companies) and S&P with triple-A rated junk. Without the triple-A rating, most institutional investors such as big pension funds would have been prevented from buying financial crap.

Of course, this was highly subsidized by various government policies such as the biggest deduction ever – the mortgage interest (and fees) deduction.

Posted by ptiffany | Report as abusive
 

Gotthardbahn

Give Roubini a break, and credit.

The housing collapse occured not because he predicted it.

More gloom and doom are coming, whether you like it or not.

U.S. administrators let loose the monster and now have absolutely no idea on how to restrain it.

God bless America.

Posted by doctorjay317 | Report as abusive
 

What’s next is another bubble. The only question is where.

Posted by Pete_Murphy | Report as abusive
 

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