Opinion

The Great Debate

What we’ve learned from 25 years of famine

By Mark Malloch-Brown
August 26, 2011

By Mark Malloch-Brown
The opinions expressed are his own.

Twenty five years ago, in the aftermath of a devastating famine in Ethiopia, remembered for better and worse for Bob Geldof’s Bandaid concerts, I wrote a book called “Famine: A Man-Made Disaster?” The question mark said it all. I ghostwrote the book for a group of African and other leaders who were more tentative than I was in declaring what had happened was largely the fault of African governments. So the great men added a question mark.

Yet while it was more convenient–not least for fundraising and handling a nasty regime in Ethiopia–to blame it on God and the weather, that famine was caused in large part by bad governance. A centralized regime in distant Addis Ababa, interested in its own survival, had little time for the development of far off rural areas where non-Amharic minorities were living. Its military background and Marxist pretensions also meant it had no interest in developing local food markets and viable peasant agriculture.

So the first big change is what has not happened. Most of Ethiopia and for that matter Kenya have escaped the famine not just because they were beyond the strict epicenter of the drought itself but because a long investment in rural food security in Ethiopia and a buoyant market economy in Kenya has enabled both to ride out sharply higher food prices.

It is no coincidence that the famine has taken hold where governance remains weakest in the region: northern Kenya where pastoralists are marginalized and have little voice in the capital, Nairobi; the Ogaden region, a similarly politically marginal area of Ethiopia, is struggling but in Tigre, the centre of the famine 25 years ago, a central government back in Addis led by Tigreans has built robust economic and environmental defenses as it has in much of the country. By contrast next door in Eritrea an unpleasant reclusive leadership may be hiding the extent of its failure to contain the famine.

The best example of why government matters is in Somalia, where there is no central government to speak of and the famine is principally in the area controlled by the ruthless Al-Shabab Islamic militia. By contrast semi-independent, better governed Somaliland and Puntland have weathered the crisis much more effectively. Following the logic that safety from famine follows good leadership and management it may be time for its neighbors and the world to hear Somaliland’s call for international recognition and independence. Its parent is a failed state that might do better broken up.

Whether it is terraced farming in Ethiopia, which conserves dusty highland soils that previously were blown or rained off the hill sides, or the extraordinary success of Bangladesh in recent years of cutting lives lost from tens of thousands to almost zero in the annual monsoons that flood down it’s funnel-shaped center, the examples of successful cheap disaster mitigation and containment are remarkable in poor countries.

Yet as man has found throughout his history, good management can only get you so far in a contest with nature, and today the affected famine region is facing the worst drought in 60 years or more. Man-made defenses might seem not to be able to prevail against the combination of climate change and local environmental degradation that are making populations in this area ever more marginal. Like in Niger in West Africa there seems a risk that this part of East Africa could lapse into an endemic famine situation with almost yearly food crises.

And there are factors beyond local African leadership control — such as climate change — that will continue to bear down disproportionately on a region like this because of the pre-existing vulnerability of its soil and weather. But there are other factors that are within local control such as farming models, particularly sorting out the balance between herders and crop farmers; soil and water management; financing inputs such as fertilizers, seeds and livestock; and the meta, too often unmentioned issue, of population growth.

Recent UN estimates suggest the comfortable assumption that Africa will quickly settle into the same demographic transition to smaller family size that has happened in parts of Asia as people move to cities and wages is off by a century or so, and thus also by many hundreds of millions of people. Even if in Nairobi or Addis Ababa family size does come down faster, in rural areas children as a source of farm labor will remain a good insurance policy in the eyes of parents. The extraordinary success of changing behavior and providing supporting medical services that has been applied to breaking the momentum of the HIV/Aids virus in Africa needs to be applied to providing women with effective family planning services and advice.

Critical to their delivery, as it has been to the HIV success, have been international development agencies. Since the era of Bob Geldof, they have labored against an ugly undercurrent that seems to believe that in a conspiracy with publicity-seeking celebrities NGOs invent famine to serve their own interests. And that these UN and NGO relief workers are much happier feeding the hungry forever rather than encouraging the self-sufficient development that will one day make their ministrations redundant.

Yet if there is one further happier factor amidst the tens of thousands of lives being lost in this tragedy, it is that NGOs and government agencies are mostly working with both a long term view of what needs to be done and with a deep understanding of local conditions. The best of these agencies are not carpetbaggers who fly in on the back of a fundraising appeal back home but agencies who have been engaged for decades in the region and most of whose staff are seasoned locals.

So whereas my first reaction to the tragic news of the famine was “Not Again,” the great news is that it isn’t. Where people are starving, and where they are not, is not just the luck of the weather, it reflects the fact that many leaders in Africa and beyond, although sadly not all, have learned from the last time.

PHOTO: An internally displaced woman holds her malnourished child inside a pediatric ward at the Banadir hosptial in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, August 22, 2011. REUTERS/Ismail Taxta

Comments
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Following the logic of the writer, Mark Malloch-Brown, if the 1984 famine in Ethiopia was caused by the “Amhara led government,” and whose victims were the Tigre ethnic group in the drought prone northern parts of Ethiopia, and now that the Tigre ethnic minority are in power today and the Tigre people are not among the 4.5 million Ethiopians facing the Tigre-made disaster of famine and starvation, it should be hailed a success????? (question marks added by me)

If an ethnic group that comes to power in Ethiopia only tends to the needs of the ethnic group it represents, what makes the regime different from the brutal apartheid system in South Africa that made the white settlers superior over the oppressed native black Africans?

For the record: according to the founder of the Tigre rebellion of the 1980′s, that later came to power piggy backing on the Eritrean liberation front in the early 90′s, he admitted the 1984-85 famine in Ethiopia was caused by the Tigre rebels who sold the relief supplies in the Sudan to buy arms, which led to the over one million people in the rebel held territories to starve to death. The same rebel leaders responsible for causing the famine and deliberate mass starvation are in power today. Just because the Tigre ethnic minority who make up mere 4% of the total Ethiopian population are not starving today that does not absolve the Tigre minority regime of its crimes causing yet another famine affecting the lives of 4.5 million Ethiopians of various ethnic groups.

Posted by Semhar | Report as abusive
 

Ethiopia’s president meles is committing indictable offenses agains ogaden people and the The Ethiopia government is using access to aid as a weapon to control people and crush dissent http://bbc.in/nXM4QB http://bit.ly/prpaBh http://bit.ly/pQNdBr

Posted by somalian | Report as abusive
 

Salim Lone had warned, in time before, at the behest of the US, Ethiopia invaded Somalia again in 2006, that a foreign-inspired war against the Islamic Courts regime hat was then maintaining a very appreciable measure of law and order in Somalia, would only cause the mergence of more hardline Islamist militants, and wreak havoc in Somalia, including famine. Nobody listened to Salim Lone, and many tried to demonise him. At that time almost nobody had heard of Al Shabab. Well, the perspicacious observers whom those who demonise Salim Lone call extreme leftists are now having their schadenfreude moment seeing the ‘catastrophe capitalists’ being served what they had all along wished for.

Posted by MohamedMalleck | Report as abusive
 

While this is all true and good, how about saying what we haven’t learned: We still haven’t learned that nobody really cares especially the people in power and the creeps with money like Trump, gates , and all the other billionares who only care about themselves and who, if they had any decency , wld get together and do something about starving and sick children all over. But the only thing they care about is their own fame and money. They give away a token amount to make themselves look good–that’s all no more. ! No one cares ! same old story !

Posted by royearl | Report as abusive
 

Who are the commentators?
First: Semhar, Eritrean, tried to shade some crocodile tears, claiming that the Tigre people are exploiting the rest of Ethiopia. I am a non-Tigre Ethiopian, and I refuse to accept any unsolicited advice that is based on lies and misinformation. Just compare these two very recent headlines:
1. Ethiopia, Kenya better ‘prepared’ for food crisis: IFRC
http://news.yahoo.com/ethiopia-kenya-bet ter-prepared-food-crisis-ifrc-184536321. html
2.Amid government denials, Eritreans flee harsh drought
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Amid +government+denials+Eritreans+flee+harsh +drought/5327606/story.html
Therefore; Why worry about a speck in your friend’s eye when you have a log in your own?
Second and Third: Somalian, and a person called MohamedMalleck. Somalis are the last people to offer advice on tolerance, peace and stability. Somalis have 3000 KM coastline, fertile land, natural resources and highly business-minded population. Sadly, they preferred the paths of terrorism, religious fundamentalism, and piracy. They have been dreaming of “greater Somalia” by taking 1/5th of Ethiopia, 1/3rd of Kenya and some parts of tiny Djibouti. Now they end up producing child-militias and millions of refuggees. Dear Mohamed, please don’t romanticize the days of Islamic Courts Union. The very first week they entered the capital Mogadishu, they killed two young boys for watching soccer games on tv (tv, music, films etc are unislamic entities). The same week, the head of the Islamic Courts Union organized international Mujahideen volunteers and openly declared a holy war (jihad) against Ethiopia.
Today poor Ethiopia is struggling to cope with more than 1 million Somali refugees, and still people take their time to play the blame game.

Posted by Werner2010 | Report as abusive
 

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