Comments on: Obama at the electoral tipping point

By: CJ_Ipsos

CJ_Ipsos — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 19:04:33 +0000

@mahadragon
You raise a good point, this model is designed to estimate the chances of reelection, i.e. is it a coin flip or trying to roll a seven. However the actual results are still very much determined by events in the real world.

@SKMauss
This study is based on elections in democratic systems around the world for two reasons: 1) There are comparatively few cases in post WWII US history (N=16). Using international data gives us a much larger data set and allows us to draw more robust conclusions because… 2) Despite some unique characteristics, most democratic systems are more similar than they are different. Our model is designed to measure the chances for an incumbent office holder across a breadth of systems.

By: mahadragon

mahadragon — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 10:51:01 +0000

It’s impossible to talk about Obama’s chances at re-election without discussing his possible successor. If Obama were to go against, say, Palin, I’d say his chances of re-election were outstanding (just as an example).

By: HAL.9000

HAL.9000 — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 16:53:05 +0000

The 800 pound gorilla in the room is Congress. With so much focus on the President, we continue to forget that the POTUS is no more powerful than what Congress allows him to be…and Congress can not pass legislation with the President’s OK.

Again, he is not king, emperor, ruler, dictator of the US. He shares power equally with Congress. So when asking why this President has been ineffective, you also have to ask why Congress has crippled him so.

…and if Congress still represent their constituents like they are supposed to, or just their major campaign contributors (corporations) who really dont have the welfare of the common man in mind but rather their own bottom line.

By: thelostdecade

thelostdecade — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 16:32:54 +0000

“Obama needs to finds ways to improve his numbers, while Republicans should work to depress satisfaction with the President.” What a brilliant deduction!

By: eleno

eleno — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 12:15:57 +0000

Frankly, if America votes the incompetent Mr Obama back into office they deserve their fate which is increased unemployment.

Obama has a knack of doing and saying things that create increased uncertainty in the business climate and, as is well known to most (except Obama voters) the uncertainty prevents businesses from hiring.

Current unemployment among blacks is over 15%, but Obama’s minions somehow have convinced blacks that Obama is not culpable.

By: BuffaloGirl

BuffaloGirl — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 10:38:15 +0000

@JackMack

During the last election, the best the Republicans could put out was McCain and Palin – which was great because they helped you lose. Unless something incredible has changed to the Republican party, the steady,but sure Democrats will prevail. Perry would sell his soul to the nuclear waste business and others, which will put off a lot of people and Bachmann (tea party) doesn’t have a chance. When Bachmann won the straw poll in Iowa, you should have seen the faces of Republican News presenters, they looked like they were going to cry and went on talking about Perry – hardly a word about the winner of the poll. Once again, they’re putting their money on the wrong one, and doing the Dems a great favor.

By: AndyAE

AndyAE — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 02:58:25 +0000

@IntoTheTardis: You do realize that Congress needs to invite the President – that the President cannot force the event on Congress? So, he really doesn’t have the option – however, the Republicans showed that jobs creation isn’t their top priority.

****
Actually, it was Obama whose top priority was not communicating to republicans about his job proposals. By scheduling his speech the same night they would be watching their candidates for presidency, he actually wrote them off.

By: FoxxDrake

FoxxDrake — Sun, 04 Sep 2011 01:05:34 +0000

“Can we gather support to have the presidential debates stop being a duopoly, and give the American people a less party-controlled choice?”

Here, here.

Every election we get the same coin and are told to pick “heads or tails” and told that is a choice. But it’s the same coin…over and over again. They are in cahoots with each other.

It’s a fraud. The nation is based and run on a lie.

By: jfxwsr

jfxwsr — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 17:07:51 +0000

Reading the posts, there is clearly great disappointment among the President’s base. The sanity of most of the Republican candidates would be difficult to establish. This might be the year for an independent candidate. Ron Paul has been mentioned. Michael Bloomberg? Can we gather support to have the presidential debates stop being a duopoly, and give the American people a less party-controlled choice?

By: Pete_Murphy

Pete_Murphy — Sat, 03 Sep 2011 10:26:04 +0000

As an independent, I voted enthusiastically for Obama, based primarily on his promise to rewrite NAFTA and address other failed trade deals. I’ve been bitterly disappointed. On his first foray into the subject of trade as president, he was sent home with his tail between his legs by the Mexicans, who responded to his talk about NAFTA with huge tariffs on American imports. Those tariffs still stand and he’s done nothing about it. The guy is a candy-ass in negotiations, and he’s proven it time and again, both at home and abroad. Our trade deficit has exploded during his presidency, dragging down our economy and killing jobs. I won’t vote for him again.