Opinion

The Great Debate

Obama’s political options

By Bill Schneider
March 11, 2013

Fiscal crisis? What fiscal crisis? The stock market is up, unemployment is down and the deficit is shrinking.

The fiscal crisis is in Washington, and it’s a crisis of Washington’s own devising. All those deadlines! January 1: the fiscal cliff. March 1: sequesters. March 27: a possible government shutdown. Sometime in August:  the debt ceiling, again.

The unending fiscal crisis could take up the entire year. President Barack Obama desperately wants to end it. For one thing, more spending cuts could bring on a recession. For another, an unending fiscal crisis would monopolize the agenda. No time for Congress to take up immigration reform or gun control or the minimum wage or preschool education.

What can Obama do? Here are the options:

1. The permanent campaign

Beginning in mid-February, the president tried to rally the public against the impending sequesters. He barnstormed the country, warning of the consequences and imploring voters to pressure Congress to resolve the impasse.

It didn’t work. Most voters had no idea what a sequester was. The cuts are not happening all at once, like a government shutdown. The public is also OK with across-the-board spending cuts (by a 2-to-1 margin in a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll). Just don’t cut any specific programs.

2. The charm offensive

When the outside option failed, Obama switched gears and went for the inside option. He’s been turning on the charm, wining and dining members of Congress. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) remarked, “After being in office for four years, he’s actually going to try to talk to members. … I hope something will come out of it.”

The problem is that Obama is not a people person like President Bill Clinton. When Clinton talks to you, it’s like you’re the only person in the world. Obama is aloof. He’s at his best addressing throngs, using a teleprompter. One Democratic congressional staffer told the New York Times that Obama seems to view relations with lawmakers “as a chore, not an opportunity.”

3. Wheel and deal

If you saw the movie Lincoln, you got a sense of how things used to get done in Washington. “I am president of the United States of America,” the movie’s Abraham Lincoln says to his shady operatives, “clothed in immense power! You will procure me those votes!”

They do. Representative Thaddeus Stevens describes the 13th Amendment as “passed by corruption, aided and abetted by the purest man in America.”

Ever see the famous series of photographs showing Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson as he works over Rhode Island Senator Theodore Green? Note: The last photo is the famous one.

Obama is not Johnson. Or Lincoln. Down and dirty is not his style.

4. Just wait till 2014

“What I can’t do is force Congress to do the right thing,” Obama said this month. “The American people may have the capacity to do that.”

Immediately after giving his victory speech in November, the Washington Post reported, the president walked off the stage in Chicago and telephoned two Democratic congressional leaders. He offered to support their campaign to retake control of the House in 2014. If the opposition party in Congress won’t go along with you, beat their brains out.

The problem with 2014 option is that it so rarely works. Since 1934. there have only been two midterm elections in which the president’s party has gained House seats: 1998, when Clinton was facing impeachment, and in 2002, the first election after 9/11. Those were both, to say the least, exceptional circumstances.

Moreover, Republican seats have gotten safer as a result of the 2010 redistricting (controlled by the GOP in most states) and growing political segregation (the tendency for people to live among others who vote the same way).

It would take an earthquake for Republicans to lose the House in 2014. Earthquakes do happen. But they are hard to engineer.

5. Game changer

Unexpected events happen. Often tragic events. And they can change everything.

Democrats thought they had President George W. Bush cornered in budget negotiations on September 10, 2001. The next day, Bush’s presidency was transformed.

On April 18, 1995, a few months after the Republican takeover of Congress, Clinton was reduced to arguing that “the president is relevant.” The very next day, the bombing in Oklahoma City proved how relevant he was.

Obama may have been counting on the Sandy Hook school shootings to change everything in his second term. So far, that hasn’t happened.

In politics, you have to expect the unexpected. But you can’t rely on it.

6. Grand bargain

The talk in Washington now is about crisis fatigue and the desire of both sides to strike a grand bargain on fiscal issues.

We know what the grand bargain would look like. Republicans would agree to close tax loopholes and limit deductions – and call it tax reform rather than a tax hike. Democrats would agree to allow means-testing for Medicare and change the formula for Social Security cost-of-living increases – and call it entitlement reform rather than a spending cut.

All this would be worked out behind closed doors in Washington and announced as a triumph of reasonableness. The problem is that Americans don’t go for tax hikes and entitlements are the most popular federal programs, watched over by influential interest groups like AARP. The American public may feel screwed.

People will demand to know: Why is Washington doing this behind our backs? Washington’s answer: Because of the fiscal crisis.

The people’s reply: What fiscal crisis?

 

PHOTO (Top): President Barack Obama  in the East Room of the White House in Washington, March 4, 2013. REUTERS/Jason Reed 

PHOTO (Insert A): President Barack Obama stands beside House Speaker John Boehner at the unveiling of a statue in honor of civil rights activist Rosa Parks, in Statuary Hall in the U.S. Capitol in Washington, February 27, 2013. REUTERS/Jason Reed

PHOTO (Insert B): President Lyndon B. Johnson laughs with Abe Fortas at the White House on July, 29, 1965. Johnson nominated him to be a Supreme Court justice that year, and he took his seat on the bench in early October. LYNDON B. JOHNSON PRESIDENTIAL LIBRARY

 

Comments
9 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

Clinton, Johnson, Nixon, pretty well knew themselves that they were scoundrels. Obama is like Bush II, and thinks he’s annointed. When O finally learns he will truly have to compromise he will go back to tweeting for mandates, it’s all he knows. Factor in a few fanatics like Pelosi and here you are. The Dems had the chance, 09 & 10 to really have a mandate. They squandered it on Ocare instead of the country’s needs. O responded to all the opposition by saying “That’s what elections are for”. Indeed. If he didn’t learn from that, and evidently didn’t, he will not learn how to work with the opposition. 2014 21 dem senators are up, 14 rep, he could well lose the senate as well.

Posted by ARJTurgot2 | Report as abusive
 

BRAVO, Mr. Schneider!

More! More!

Posted by OneOfTheSheep | Report as abusive
 

The President is as good a politician as we’ve ever had in the White House. He will continue to play the game expertly. I don’t think anyone knows for certain what he has in mind for his second term. Clearly, a Democrat majority in both the House and Senate would help. Should be an interesting four years.

Posted by gordo53 | Report as abusive
 

obama is as good of politician as we’ve had. Translation, he is the most underhanded, dishonest crook we have seen since Nixon. The sewer that is Chicago politics should be proud!

Posted by adrenalize13 | Report as abusive
 

I think most Americans recognize that the current spending is unsustainable. And only far left economists fail to recognize that the intelligent time to stop a fiscal crisis is before the Fed is forced to raise interest rates and the debt servicing costs on the already gargantuan principal debt force lawmakers to cut these popular programs and raise taxes in greater measure then what is necessary now. The logic of arguing there is no fiscal crisis is as sound as the logic against global warming. It hasn’t happened yet therefore we do nothing to stop it.

Posted by agsocrates | Report as abusive
 

No, Obama is not “down and dirty” – he is sneaky, underhanded and a pro at Chicago politics that include a lot of lying.

Posted by AZreb | Report as abusive
 

You state “The people’s reply: What fiscal crisis?”

The one that is being manipulated out of existence by the powers that be, of course.

It is a known fact that if you repeat a lie often enough the people will come to believe it as the truth, which is exactly what is happening in the US.

http://blogs.reuters.com/judgement-call/ 2013/03/12/the-fiscal-crisis-nears-or-no t/

Posted by PseudoTurtle | Report as abusive
 

Can’t believe the posts or the shallowness of the article that really did not address the title.
Obama is a politician! big surprise, but the fact that the Tea Party has high jacked the Republican party is no where in this article. Or that many of the right wing still can’t get over a black man in the ” White” house. It has been proven that you an not just fix it with austerity and spending cuts. You have to spend as well on getting people back to work. It’s not ” black” or “white”.

Posted by msdds1 | Report as abusive
 

With $17 trillion and growing, no sane person addresses this debt by more spending. If O doen’t want his legacy flushed down the toilet, this rock-star will have to learn to sit still and compromise.

Posted by ponder | Report as abusive
 

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