Comments on: Civil wars and Syria: lessons from history http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/ Thu, 21 Jul 2016 07:57:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: KyleDexter http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72846 Thu, 30 May 2013 14:10:17 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72846 @Fromkin,
Well said

]]>
By: Fromkin http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72818 Fri, 24 May 2013 19:36:13 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72818 @ptiffany

“…Who would believe that?”

Informed people.

Not a civil war? No. It’s a Regime-change war. Go to google or Bing, type Wesley Clarck 7 countries. You’ll see Syria on a list of countries the US was planning to attack and overthrow its government since 2001. None of the terorists who attacked NY were from Syria or every country on that list. In fact terrorists were all from countries allied to the US:Saud Arabia, Yemen, Egypt…

If it was a civil war why is the US and its lackeys supporting one side? Why is Al Qaida, a Saudi and CIA creation, involved?

You guys are paid to roam the internet and confuse people and attack those who tell the truth. What are you talking about?

Apart from Saud Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan(to a less extent), Islamic militants in Irak and Lebanon are part of the aggressors. And let’s not forget the elephant in the room:Israel which is actively helping al Qaida on the battlefield. But since you only believe what you hear from Fox and CNN, you won’t know what’s really happening in Syria.

]]>
By: ptiffany http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72817 Fri, 24 May 2013 18:40:19 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72817 So, the “West” including Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries is backing al Qaeda and other jihadists? Who would believe that?

No civil war? Are you, Fromkin, referring to some other country or are you just following the Palin Rule – When you don’t know something, just make it up?

]]>
By: EconCassandra http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72816 Fri, 24 May 2013 16:11:20 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72816 I recommend reading this article in conjunction with the above article, since it has a direct bearing on what is being discussed.

http://blogs.reuters.com/nicholas-wapsho tt/2013/05/23/lessons-of-the-london-butc hers/

]]>
By: Abby.S http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72814 Fri, 24 May 2013 04:26:00 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72814 The authors of this article are underestimating the military effort needed to solve the situation with force.
Syria is not Libya, is not even Iraq. In the Iraq invasion, the Iraqi army did not fight at all – not a single military maneuver was executed, there were no military battles. Tanks were abandoned, positions were deserted, not a single airplane took in the air. The only initial resistance was in the form of small gorilla style groups.
Syria still has a credible military, effective central command, and relatively well equipped. The SAA is actually better prepared to fight an invasion than fighting a guerilla war. But most importantly, they are fighting an existential battle, and it will be likely to expect for them to utilize everything they have in their disposal.
So, when I read that the authors are estimating casualty rate at dozens per month, make that dozens per hour during direct contact on the battlefield.
If anyone needs to have reality check, look at what happened in 1999, when NATO bombed Yugoslavia for 78 days nonstop with everything they had. NATO was reporting more than 10,000 Serbian soldiers killed, but in reality was less than 600 (total of 1031 if you include police and other losses). The Yugoslavian air force had less than 10 operational MIGs with some of them surviving and resisting to the last day of the war. So, this military proposition is not as simple as it sounds.
Plus, Syria has the support of Russia. There is a good number of Russian citizens that live in Syria with their families. There are specific legitimate strategic interest that Russia has in Syria, this needs to be understood and appreciated. So, in conclusion – this war is far from over and don’t expect NATO invasion anytime soon.

]]>
By: Fromkin http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72810 Fri, 24 May 2013 00:28:13 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72810 The conflict in Syria is not a civil war. It’s a war of aggression on Syria by the US, Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

All the options presented here by this article’s neocon author will fail.

What about the option of stopping arms’ flow to insurgents/terrorists which should lead to stopping the bloodshed?

Here is the predicament Syria’s aggressors are in as of today: if they stop supporting insurgents, they will be defeated in less than two months; if they continue as they are doing now, they will still be defeated by year end.

That’s also what Assad has said(not him but the Syrian government but since the West loves to demonize him so I use his name). Some people would not believe him but he is not the type to boast or bluster. Events on the ground are proving him right all the time. Independents analysts are saying the same thing.

For those who do not believe him or what I say, they need to check today’s edition of the German online publication of Spiegel(I’ll put a link at bottom). It says that German secrets services are now predicting that the Syrian army will defeat Western-backed insurgents/mercenaries by end of 2013. Western intelligence agencies are now realizing that Syrian army’s so called defectors lied to them promising that the Syrian army would crumble in two months, which Obama repeated to Middle East leaders.

Here is Voltairenet article about it(I did not know it was available in english):

BND anticipates Syria’s victory end 2013

Voltaire Network | 23 May 2013

The German foreign intelligence agency (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) has drastically revised its assessment of the situation in Syria, reveals Spiegel Online [1]

While, on the strength of reports by high-ranking military deserters, they had heretofore predicted the rapid enfeeblement of Bashar al-Assad, today they announced his victory before the end of the year.

The BND believes that the Syrian Arab Army has succeeded in securing its supply lines and in cutting those of the “insurgents” (largely foreign jihadists, backed by NATO and the GCC). Regaining control of al-Qusayir presages that of the entire district of Homs and the collapse of the partition plans(by the West), with the possible exception of a
Kurdish area.

Here is the original article link:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/sy rien-bnd-rechnet-mit-offensive-der-assad -truppen-im-buergerkrieg-a-901132.html

And here is the original Headline: “Bürgerkrieg in Syrien: BND prognostiziert Vormarsch der Assad-Armee”

I don’t understand German but the title seems to say: Civil war in Syria: BND(German secret services) prognosticates(predicts) a victory by Assad’s army.

So what this author and Western journalists have been doing for the last few months is try to prop up foreign mercenaries who are losing the battle for regime-change by advancing absurd scenarii and using propaganda attacks and Israel threats to scare the Syrian army.

The bottom line is Regime-change has failed. Western mercenaries have been defeated. Assad will lead Syria for many years to come. Without a UN chapter 7 mandate, the aggressors won’t do a damn thing about it.

]]>
By: Fromkin http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72809 Fri, 24 May 2013 00:27:14 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72809 The conflict in Syria is not a civil war. It’s a war of aggression on Syria by the US, Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

All the options presented here by this article’s neocon author will fail.

What about the option of stopping arms’ flow to insurgents/terrorists which should lead to stopping the bloodshed?

Here is the predicament Syria’s aggressors are in as of today: if they stop supporting insurgents, they will be defeated in less than two months; if they continue as they are doing now, they will still be defeated by year end.

That’s also what Assad has said(not him but the Syrian government but since the West loves to demonize him so I use his name). Some people would not believe him but he is not the type to boast or bluster. Events on the ground are proving him right all the time. Independents analysts are saying the same thing.

For those who do not believe him or what I say, they need to check today’s edition of the German online publication of Spiegel(I’ll put a link at bottom). It says that German secrets services are now predicting that the Syrian army will defeat Western-backed insurgents/mercenaries by end of 2013. Western intelligence agencies are now realizing that Syrian army’s so called defectors lied to them promising that the Syrian army would crumble in two months, which Obama repeated to Middle East leaders.

Here is Voltairenet article about it(I did not know it was available in english):

BND anticipates Syria’s victory end 2013

Voltaire Network | 23 May 2013

The German foreign intelligence agency (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) has drastically revised its assessment of the situation in Syria, reveals Spiegel Online [1]

While, on the strength of reports by high-ranking military deserters, they had heretofore predicted the rapid enfeeblement of Bashar al-Assad, today they announced his victory before the end of the year.

The BND believes that the Syrian Arab Army has succeeded in securing its supply lines and in cutting those of the “insurgents” (largely foreign jihadists, backed by NATO and the GCC). Regaining control of al-Qusayir presages that of the entire district of Homs and the collapse of the partition plans(by the West), with the possible exception of a
Kurdish area.

Here is the original article link:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/sy rien-bnd-rechnet-mit-offensive-der-assad -truppen-im-buergerkrieg-a-901132.html

And here is the original Headline: “Bürgerkrieg in Syrien: BND prognostiziert Vormarsch der Assad-Armee”

I don’t understand German but the title seems to say: Civil war in Syria: BND(German secret services) prognosticates(predicts) a victory by Assad’s army.

So what this author and Western journalists have been doing for the last few months is try to prop up foreign mercenaries who are losing the battle for regime-change by advancing absurd scenarii and using propaganda attacks and Israel threats to scare the Syrian army.

The bottom line is Regime-change has failed. Western mercenaries have been defeated. Assad will lead Syria for many years to come. Without a UN chapter 7 mandate, the aggressors won’t do a damn thing about it.

]]>
By: ptiffany http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72806 Thu, 23 May 2013 19:39:24 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72806 This article is far too nuanced for our “great leaders” like Senilator John McCain. It’s hard to use history, facts and logic to compete with “Bomb – Bomb – Bomb, Bomb-Bomb X-country”. In the end, the American arms manufacturers come out way ahead. War profits have never been better. Lobbyists convice Congress to send “foreign aid” to countries like Egypt and Pakistan with most of these funds coming to American arms manufacturers. It seems the Plutocracy is firmly in charge.

]]>
By: COindependent http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72801 Thu, 23 May 2013 14:04:50 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72801 As evidenced in Eqypt, Iraq and Libya having a variety of opposition groups agreeing on any political solution is virtually impossible. Any disagreement will result in turmoil and violence.

You cannot resolve 2,000 years of tribal and sectarian conflict in weeks or years as the distrust is embedded in the culture. That is why each and every one of the Arab states is totalitarian in some way shape or form. The populace is effectively bribed to comply, underwritten by overt police and military control.

Even the good intentions of Western Europe and the U.S. to stop the killing of civilians will not change this dynamic. As the author stated, this is a war between fundamentalist Iran and western influence in the oil producing countries. Nothing more, nothing less. Once the fundamentalists take over, they will impose their will on those that are not “fundamentalist enough”.

Just look at Khameni and Rahfjestani in Iran to see the two sides of the same coin. The only thing they agree on is their hatred of the U.S. and Israel.

]]>
By: reality-again http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/05/22/civil-wars-and-syria-lessons-from-history/#comment-72793 Thu, 23 May 2013 00:15:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=20757#comment-72793 This article that talks about some things, and omits other things that are worth mentioning as well, including –
1. The war in Syria is de facto a war by proxy between Iran and some Arab states in the Persian / Arab gulf. In a way, it’s yet another front in the broader regional conflict between Shia and Sunni Muslims.
2. Sending US troops to Syria is out of the question. Period.
3. Syria and Lebanon are linked to each other to a point where practically speaking, you can’t dissociate them. 4. Hezbollah is fighting in Syria not just as an Iranian mercenary, but for its own survival.
5. Russia has been acting irrationally all through this conflict. Putin seems caught in an attitude stemming mostly from a need to defend Russia’s glorious past as the USSR empire, without thinking too much about the future.

]]>