Opinion

The Great Debate

Why Erdogan doesn’t get it

By Ben Judah
June 13, 2013

Protesters run as riot police fire teargas during a protest at Taksim Square in Istanbul June 11, 2013. REUTERS/Osman Orsal

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan doesn’t get it. Turkey’s strongman is still fighting the Deep State

He doesn’t understand that the crowd filling Gezi Park in the scruffy center of Istanbul is the most precious creation of Turkey’s boom – an ambitious, creative, new generation. Erdogan doesn’t see the beauty in this kaleidoscope of mini-groups – Turkish and Kurdish, Marxist and Kemalist, Armenian and Islamist – all demanding that he listen to the public, rather than bulldoze Istanbul in his image.

Instead he sees in the Gezi Park protests the work of plotters and foreign bankers, the opposition Republican People’s Party – even a mysterious international “interest lobby.”

Erdogan is trapped in Turkish history. His battle against the clandestine networks of Kemalist generals – the moniker of the adherents to the secular legacy of the Turkish republic’s founder Mustafa Kemal – and their plainclothes allies, has been so long and so bitter it has left him unable to see anything else.

Erdogan is angry. He won three democratic elections with an increased majority and believes – not incorrectly – he has made life better for the Turkish poor and made Turkey look more like them, less secular and more conservative.

Erdogan doesn’t get it because he is still fighting his last battle – the secretive civil war within the Turkish elite. He sees shadowy forces trying to unseat him among the twentysomethings of Gezi Park because, until recently, there really were forces out to get him. They were trying to topple his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Erdogan’s enemies were evocatively called the “Deep State” – or the state within the state that kept Turkish democracy under military tutelage for generations. It was a shifting network of generals, bureaucrats and criminals who once acted as the guardians of secularism – but actually propped up the Western-oriented elites of Turkey’s coastal cities and the bureaucracy. Less a shadow government and more an evolving political mafia, these forces kept on preventing outsiders from coming to power democratically.  To prevent outsiders like Erdogan from seizing the state machinery, Turkey suffered four military coups – in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997.  This effectively denied the poor a voice in politics – until Erdogan won election.

The entrenched establishment did not give up easily. The AKP’s consolidation evolved into a “winner takes all” war in the elite. The Kemalist establishment – the tight-knit military, judiciary and oligarchic elites – tried everything possible to stop Erdogan. He was briefly jailed for his Islamist beliefs in 1999. They attempted to ban the AKP as recently as 2008.  Military coup plots seemed continual. Generals threatened to intervene. Then there were sensational murders (allegedly orchestrated by factions inside the security forces) to sow chaos with the aim of ousting Erdogan. There was relentless, scurrilous propaganda funded by these shadowy groups to defame him – accusing him, amongst other things, of being a secret Jew.

This tactical war against Erdogan rattled and embittered him – and he fought back to attain his goal of total victory. As recently as 2011 – while the world was transfixed by the Arab Spring – AKP leaders moved to smash the military elite, unraveling a coup plot. There were mass arrests – the numbers are huge. The plotters’ trials have now sprawled to take in 530 defendants and 8,000 pages of indictments – much, but not all, fabricated.

The result is more than 15 percent of Turkish admirals and generals are now in the dock.

Yet, just as Erdogan seemed to have finally defeated the “Deep State,” these protestors have appeared across Turkey attacking his leadership and calling for his removal. He must have felt blind-sided by the spontaneous demonstrations because the last time there were similar mass protests in Turkey, back in 2007, they were organized by the military in alliance with the opposition Republican People’s Party. Those protests brought hundreds of thousands out onto the streets in an effort to block Erdogan from winning the election. Gigantic crowds in Ankara and Izmir numbered more than 350,000 Turkish flag-waving secularists.

Erdogan smells conspiracy because, until 2011, Turkish politics has been nothing but conspiracy.

These current protests also clearly stunned him since the plans to redevelop Istanbul’s Taksim Square, erect a gigantic airports and gargantuan third bridge over the Bosphorus, were part of the AKP election mandate in its recent big win. There was never a secret, Erdogan’s men claim, that voting for the AKP in the 2009 mayoral election and the 2011 general elections meant rebuilding Istanbul.

This is one key reason why Erdogan sees the protestors as undemocratic, elitist losers, spreading chaos to undermine him.

Erdogan no doubt thinks he has behaved toward the protestors like a perfect democrat. He does not see the police actions as brutal or coarse – rather he compares them to the old security tactics of Turkey’s military past.

Never before has the Turkish state abandoned the Taksim area like this – allowing an un-policed carnival to run its course for more than a week. Never before have the Turkish police apologized. Rather, Erdogan thinks back to the Taksim protests of 1977, when almost 500,000 converged on the square. The police killed more than 30 people – running them down and wildly firing live rounds into the crowds.

Erdogan doesn’t get it because he doesn’t listen. Like Russian President Vladimir Putin, his repressive paranoia has increasingly muzzled the media.

Newspaper columnists whom Erdogan resents have been sacked, while Turkish TV has been pressured, through government contracts and other cash matters, into broadcasting more or less what he wants to hear. This became obvious during the protests – documentaries on penguins were broadcast instead of live-feeds from Taksim Square. A score of national papers ran identical headlines.

Nor does Erdogan have anyone left to listen to. Advisers who might offer criticism or adversarial views have been pushed aside – and a court of sycophants enthroned. Even leading AKP members now worry about incurring Erdogan’s wrath. As a result, he is cut off from reliable information.  One leaked U.S. cable revealed: “Erdogan reads minimally, mainly the Islamist-leaning press […] instead he relies on his charisma, instincts and the filtering of advisors who pull conspiracy theories off the Web or who are lost in neo-Ottoman fantasies.”

Erdogan, lashing out at Gezi Park, keeps insisting that Turkey is “exactly where we were in 2007” – when the army posted a memorandum online hinting it might stage a coup.

Erdogan can’t grasp that the “Deep State” has gone. For this new generation in Gezi Park, Erdogan’s battles against the old elites are irrelevant, and his efforts to reframe these protests as part of that struggle is misguided or even deluded.

For them, Erdogan is no longer the victim – he is the state.

 

PHOTO (Insert A): Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of parliament from his ruling AK Party (AKP) in Ankara June 11, 2013. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

PHOTO (Insert B): Protester holds a petrol bomb behind his back during clashes in Istanbul’s Taksim Square June 11, 2013.  REUTERS/Yannis Behrakis

Comments
10 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

This is a very perceptive article. The following, however, is a little oversimplified ….

“To prevent outsiders like Erdogan from seizing the state machinery, Turkey suffered four military coups – in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997. This effectively denied the poor a voice in politics – until Erdogan won election.”

These four interventions were all quite different. The 1960 coup was prompted by Adnan Menderes’ closing of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). Far from being an outsider, he was formerly a member of the CHP, where he was noted for his opposition to land reform. The 1971 “Coup by Memorandum” (i.e., a threatened coup rather than an actual one) occurred because Süleyman Demirel’s right-wing government’ increasingly violent suppression of popular left-wing movements was ineffective andresulting in more political violence. The 1980 coup was the big one, resulting in a bloody military regime that imprisoned (and often tortured) around half a million people. As for 1997, it hardly warrants the title of coup at all. The military made unhappy noises about Necmettin Erbakan’s increasingly violent Islamist rhetoric, and enough MPs defected from hisparty to make the government collapse.

As for the poor having no voice in policitcs until Erdoğan’s election, what makes you think they have a voice now? Buying votes with free food and coal isn’t the same as giving the poor a voice.

Posted by BozukTurkce | Report as abusive
 

This is one of the worst written articles.
First he states that the Turksih Generals were plotting to overthrow the government, then states that the charges against those same generals are fabricated.

He states that the great and secular Turkish military put down protests in 1977 and used live rounds and killed 30 people. Has Erdogan done any of that when putting down these protesters???

And on top of it all, the project for Taksim Square and the Bospherous WAS PUT TO THE BALLOT, AND ERDOGAN WON.

Go home people.

Posted by KyleDexter | Report as abusive
 

KyleDexter: You have no idea whats going on Turkey, So please be good Dexter and search..Why Erdogan never won,and never will….Go home redneck…go educate your self…

Posted by kontes | Report as abusive
 

KyleDexter: I didn’t know that we were supposed congratulate Erdogan for atrocities he did not commit. If that’s the case, let me also add a few more things to his list of accomplishments: “not planning mass murders”, “not engineering famines”, “not building slave camps” and “not purging journalists”.
Actually, scratch the last one, he does put a lot pressure on the journalists.

I don’t even know what you meant by putting Bosphorus project on the ballot. I don’t even know which project you are referring to.

One more thing, the Balyoz case documents are generally accepted to be fabricated. See the analyses on the Microsoft Word files. http://balyozdavasivegercekler.com/ is a good source.

Posted by charut | Report as abusive
 

KyleDexter: I just realized that your comment is so badly written that you should have done it on purpose. I’m not good at coming up with conspiracy theories, but your comment looks like what somebody against Erdogan would write to deface Erdogan’s followers.

Posted by charut | Report as abusive
 

Thank you for an informative article. It’s always nice to read something that is well researched.

@KyleDexter – you seem to be unaware that the above article spans many decades. Try reading the article properly before commenting. The writer points out the carnage of the 1980s coup, he does not condone it as you suggest.

@BozukTurkce – nice follow-up comment. I love learning new stuff. Thank you.

Maybe Mr. Erdogan has been fighting real demons – and won – for so long that he is now looking for imaginary ones. Here is my take if anyone is interested. Be warned, it is offensive and humorous in equal measure.

http://misterthorn.wordpress.com/

Posted by misterthorn | Report as abusive
 

People against AKP government like to manipulate things like social charity and help to the poor people by giving example that AKP buy vote by giving poor people coal and free food. This is not realistic and this is not so simple. The percentage of the supporters of AKP is %50. There are people giving vote for AKP from all different communities

Posted by mbykl26 | Report as abusive
 

It’s not a “petrol bomb” or molotov that protestor holds. It’s just an empty beer glass. Everybody uses these glass as a rock to protect themselves from police attack in those days in Istanbul. You cannot hold a petrol bomb like that, if you don’t want to burn yourself. BTW, such a bomb needs a scrap.

Posted by OlcayC | Report as abusive
 

I dont agree on this analysis, especially the part about the deep state.For years ,tens of years Erdogans group (and there were others before him) worked in highschools, worked to get the poor , the so called victims have on their side with a systematical islamisation that we never saw until his election. Yet it was there , right under our nose. They have chosen this youth as their targets and raised them , kids that were open to brainwashing and kids that needed help financialwise.Erdogans power has been strategically and minutiously planned for decades and he is not a victim.

And he gets it very well , he knows that people are awakening but he needs to keep that crowd that he came to call his own under control and in total illusion.

Posted by RimaNur | Report as abusive
 

@Mbykl26 akps has many strategies first is making people poorer and impoverishment. so they can easily buy their votes. Yes they do distribute money, food, valuables and they ask them to promise to vote their party.
2nd Manipulating the media they`ve almost achieved that with buying mainstream channels and influencing their broadcasts, as well the newspapers. Sabah group is now owned by Erdogans son in-law.They imprisoned many journalist,will continue till there’s no one left that writes a single word against government. Turkey is called journalist prison like in China.
That’s not all, they bought all the banks, so it is a big power. For small scale businesses and farmers who loan money, are being threatened to vote akp when they fail to pay back their depths.
Then Education, most people in turkey can not receive a good education, for the AKp it is easier to rule a group of people which do get the news from falsified sources and relies on friends words when its to to vote for referenda or election. e.g an example of fake news http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/shame-o n-you-amanpour-reacts-to-turkish-daily-t hat-published-fake-interview.aspx?pageID =517&nID=49022&NewsCatID=341
Sure MYbkl26 it is not as simple as that and there are more strategies to hypnos the big Turkish community and sell the taksim, haydarpasa,new bridge… cut trees build malls, sell boron element which has strategic value in energy…

Posted by Anonymous | Report as abusive
 

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