Putin’s created an economic crisis and left Moscow no easy way out
Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches unworkable.
Under normal market conditions, for example, the recent collapse of the Russian ruble should have spurred exports, domestic manufacturing and foreign investment because a weaker currency makes Russian business more competitive both domestically and internationally. Yet a dramatic rebound in any of those economic arenas remains unlikely not just due to sanctions but also because of the entrenched structural weaknesses of Putin’s system.
In particular, Russia lacks a diversified economy, a vibrant entrepreneurial class, the rule of law and a stable business environment that can support a fast economic turnaround. In addition, this crisis has sparked Russian anti-Western and isolationist rhetoric that makes Moscow’s road to recovery significantly more difficult.
Putin’s pursuit of greater imperial glory has brought an unrelenting stream of bad economic news. The dramatic collapse of the price of oil means a decline in state revenues and less money for Putin’s ambitious military and social spending projects. Along with the ruble sinking, inflation is rising and capital flight has soared to record highs.
The only good news is that the Russian budget is in balance. That only occurred, however, because the government is paying its bills with cheaper rubles. It is never a good sign when the finance minister announces that he needs a backup budget since the proposed 2015-17 budget is already obsolete. (It is based on an oil price of $100 per barrel.)
Though Russia has discussed the merits of diversification beyond oil for decades, it has never bothered to implement the strategy. Russian domestic producers are thus in no position to take advantage of a falling ruble because, other than natural resources, they have relatively little to sell abroad.
But even if foreign markets remain out of reach, a falling currency theoretically should stimulate domestic production if only because foreign goods inevitably will become too expensive for Russian consumers. Moscow has heralded its food sanctions — which ban the import of European Union and U.S. meat, fruit and vegetables — as just such a chance to force Russians to buy local produce.
Yet Russian businessmen and women have been so over-regulated — and over-prosecuted — that the Russian entrepreneur has become an endangered species. Indeed, an amnesty last year revealed tens of thousands of business leaders in jail on essentially trumped-up charges. Despite much fanfare, only a relative trickle of people was eventually released.
Because government fiscal policy and a dysfunctional legal system won’t allow small- and medium-sized businesses to lead Russia out of recession, that leaves Russia’s big state corporations — the bedrock of Putin’s policy of state capitalism — to show the way. Thanks to sanctions, however, Russian companies and banks are busy seeking bailouts, not new markets.
Igor Sechin, chairman of the state oil company Rosneft, recently announced, for example, that what is good for Rosneft is good for Russia — and asked for $49 billion from the National Welfare Fund, one of Russia’s major rainy day funds.
Putin’s finance minister has already announced that Rosneft won’t get that much. But the collective demands for hard currency — from the central bank’s interventions to defend the ruble to Putin’s big spending plans for Crimea — are putting strong pressures on Russian financial reserves, which are already down 13 percent this year. Moscow is busy spending money, and no one knows when it will stop.
One last economic option available to most struggling economies — increased foreign direct investment — is largely off the table here thanks to the sanctions and Russia’s inhospitable business climate.
The Kremlin recently announced, however, that it intends to make a bad situation worse. Much of Russia’s foreign investments represent money returning from Russians living abroad. Yet now the finance ministry wants companies registered offshore and owned (50 percent or more) or potentially controlled (25 percent or more) by Russian citizens to pay taxes in Russia.
Why Russian businesses would want to expose their offshore earnings to Russian taxes once they have gone through the trouble of transferring their money out of the country remains a big mystery. Ironically, Putin had intended to use Russia’s chairmanship of the G-8 to lead a global fight against tax havens and offshore banking. But Russia is no longer a member of the G-8, and Putin must pursue his strategy of “de-offshorization” alone and with little chance of success.
Russia is in desperate need of a rational conversation about its economic challenges. Yet Putin refuses to engage in this dialogue because it obviously would interfere with the triumphant narrative dominating the Russian media. Instead, he is pursuing a policy of cracking down and lashing out. His latest diatribe, delivered at the Valdai Club, showed that he is in no mood to compromise and that he continues to blame the United States for Russia’s — and all the world’s — problems.
As the Russian economy continues its downward spiral, however, citizens are bound to ask difficult questions of their leaders. The Russian people bring a tradition of stoicism to any emergency, yet the current crisis is not the equivalent of foreign armies at the gates of Leningrad. Nor can it be compared to the long-running ideological struggle of the Cold War. This crisis is instead symbolized by the so-called Rotenberg law — that the Russian people should bail out oligarchs who have their villas seized in Italy.
Putin is playing for time here. There always is the risk that he will pursue additional imperial glory to maintain his popularity. Yet in the words of the economist Herbert Stein, chairman of President Richard M. Nixon’s Council of Economic advisers, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Russia’s savings are not inexhaustible. The main established routes to economic recovery — increasing exports, expanding domestic manufacturing, attracting more foreign investment — are not currently viable. Other proposed solutions, including price controls or fixed exchange rates, would only make matters worse.
Putin is the author of this crisis. And the Russian president will ultimately be required to provide some answers.
PHOTO (TOP): Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures as he chairs a meeting with members of the government at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, October 13, 2014. REUTERS/Vasily Maximov/Pool
PHOTO (INSERT 1): A general view of the Achinsk oil refining factory, owned by the Rosneft company, outside the town of Achinsk, some 188 km (117 miles) west of Krasnoyarsk, Oct. 28, 2013. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin/Files
PHOTO (INSERT 2): Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Rosneft Chief Executive Igor Sechin attend a signing ceremony at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2014 in St. Petersburg, May 24, 2014. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin
We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Where is the “Sanctions won’t work” crowd”
Yet another article about how bad the situation is in Russia. What ever the truth maybe the question that should be asked is what right has the US administration got to impose sanctions on any country that go’s against its foreign policy and constant interference in world affairs. Even more importantly this time the sanctions have been imposed upon a member of the UN security council. The biggest threat we have to world peace is the potential loss of American financial hegemony. Can the author of this article not work out that this time the result will not be a slow financial death of a nation such as Iran Korea etc but will in fact result in a military expansion of Russia leading to an inevitable conclusion. Or maybe that’s what America wants !!!
It will take time but eventually the Russian economy will re-orient towards the east and there will be markets for what they produce. The bigger problem is that being an entrepreneur in Russia is a danger to your health. This is a long term problem and shows no sign of abating. Thus what they’ll rebuild is a 19th century economy based on raw materials and agriculture. The interesting question is, if the iron curtain is going to fall again, who in the far east of Europe will be on the one side and who on the other?
The sanctions are working both ways. Russia is neither Iran nor N.Korea.
Russia will keep the west engaged until China is ready for the global reconfiguration.The Ukraine crisis is what the doctor recommended for China.
Glory to Russia and Vladimir The Righteous!!!
Mr. Putin has over estimated his ability to control the situation. More he is trying to fight back, the grip is getting tighter around his neck. He should know better from judo.
I think my fav example of bungling Russian economic policy has to be the 150 basis point hike. Brilliant!
Putin will intro his ‘special sanctions.’ He will take all of Luhansk, Mariupol and Odessa.
The Russian people are the biggest losers of this power struggle.
When the rating of the rubel goes downwards, the popularity of Putin goes upwards.
This is russian logic.
If you are really interested in Putin’s line of reasoning you better skip this article for:
http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/23137
And Putin does sound a lot more rational that Obama’s list of Isis, Russia and Ebola.
How will a floating Ruble affect the situation? Anyone know?
Good – Russia should know there are consequences for the murder of innocent air passengers and for their aggression in Ukraine.
I’m from Russia and do not know what awaits me tomorrow :(
It would appear that Putin economics was designed for Putin, not for his people. Will they get wise to his ploys? Only when reality sets in on very harsh terms. My real concern is, if he becomes sufficiently desperate, will he employ a complete takeover of the Ukraine. He claims to be a realist, but some of his actions do not bear out those claims.
After oil price seems to bottom, the US should start dumping a little on the market from the SPR. Then we should announce a subsidy to construct government owned oil pipelines from the Canadian oil sands down into the US. Then guarantee an oil price floor for any shale oil produced in the US, with a tax on gasoline to fund it. Then give Exxon, BP, and Conoco a zero interest government 50 year loan, and tax breaks to build their natural gas pipeline down from the North Slope. See how long Putin lasts with $50 oil. I would pay $8 a gallon to beat him. Hell, I would give up 2 SS checks a year to drive the oil price down to $50 and keep it there for a few years.
Putin is the king of rhetoric and rubbish. I rarely hear what he has to say without thinking that his talking points contradict his very actions. Yet, he tries to place himself on the pillar of all that is nobel and right. It’d be nice if he himself would play by rules and do what’s in his peoples best interest versus playing Battleship.
The “sanctions are a must” if Putin says they don’t work ,they likely do. After all, amongst other character flaws,he is a pathological liar. The ruble is collapsing and the economy is sliding. The biggest issue is that the population, according to Putin controlled media, wants a return to Stalinism. That means economic collapse is the only way that Russia will reign in their expansion desires. An economic collapse is inevitable unless somehow Putin is sidelined for a more rational leader by Russians. Unfortunately Russian prosperity equates to a more aggressive Kremlin. All we can do is apply sanctions and boycott Russia. Those unwilling to so are not our friends, but not necessarily our enemies. In today’s world for a neighboring country to wage war as an action for the country’s refusal to be part of their control is nonsense and Hitler like. The entire mess is of Putin’s making and its sad that ordinary Russians are dragged down by a leader who is power obsessive. It should be made clear to Putin that if he engages the west in military conflict that he and his will be the first casualty. Take a look at Sochi, empty , how can Putin get away WITH THAT LIE.
Russia is not the only party feeling the crunch of dropping fuel prices. Texas, Venezuela, Ecuador, IRAK, and others feel it too. The reality is that it will only get worse as electric and nuclear technology excels. And those technologies are excelling at exponential rates today. Russia is going to have to make it by manufacturing the worlds most efficient autos and offer the world a new power source such as thorium mini power plants (maybe). King Solomon would have made initiatives to SAVE IN THE GOOD TIMES FOR THE BAD TIMES and/or to invest in new technologies with the trillions of dollars made on fuel sales so that Russia (and the USA for that matter) will never be caught behind the eight ball. In terms of Venezuela and Ecuador, they are beyond hope. We have to give credit to Texas; however, they have all kinds of alternative fuel and power plants.
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This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of “neighbors” will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune “Social” is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.
Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players over the years than I can count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the last few years I’ve settled down to one line of players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.
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