Prediction: Obama will decide to keep U.S. troops in Afghanistan beyond 2016

December 22, 2014

U.S. Marines prepare to board a plane at the end of operations for U.S. Marines and British combat troops in Helmand

In 2015, I predict that President Barack Obama will rethink his plan to have all operational U.S. combat forces out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016.

That goal was announced in spring 2014. It fit in the context of Obama’s longstanding goals, laid out in his 2012 reelection campaign, to end both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars on his watch.

At this point, however, it is clear that the war in Iraq continues, with a renewed (if modest) U.S. role. The related Syria conflict will almost surely require greater U.S. efforts in 2015 and beyond. So Obama’s ambition to be remembered as a peace president who ended the nation’s wars no longer holds water.

The president needn’t worry too much about having to shift course, however. Everyone knows that presidents are not omnipotent, and that world events require changes in U.S. policy. While a healthy debate will surely continue over whether Obama mismanaged, and hurried, the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, that is now an historical debate.

U.S. troops keep watch at the site of a suicide attack in Kabul

The current reality is that, while the United States is fighting the al Qaeda-ist movement that grandiosely calls itself Islamic State using air strikes and aiding allies on the ground, more needs to be done to make sure its militants do not take over larger swaths of Iraq and Syria — and are ultimately beaten back. Obama’s rhetoric, and policies, on these matters demonstrate pragmatism and flexibility, though more innovations and greater efforts will likely be needed.

A similar logic should be applied to Afghanistan. Working with Afghans and international partners, the United States has made great headway there, despite all the frustrations, costs, casualties and setbacks. Progress is fragile, however, and a Taliban takeover or civil war is always a possibility.

Casualties to Afghan soldiers and police are too high. Certain parts of the country, such as chunks of Helmand province, have been lost to the Taliban in recent months. Parts of the east never were in great shape. Pakistan’s role, meanwhile, remains challenging and often unhelpful.

But the successful presidential transition of 2014 and the great improvement in U.S.-Afghan relations taking place under President Ashraf Ghani, combined with the resilience of the Afghan people and temerity of its security forces, all provide grounds for hope. Security in the country’s major cities remains far better than many U.S. press reports would imply.

U.S. soldier points his rifle after coming under fire in Zharay district in Kandahar province, southern Afghanistan

Obama will not want to discard this hopeful picture by a complete U.S. withdrawal over the next two years. Already, U.S. forces have been drawn down 90 percent from peak levels under Generals Stanley McChrystal, David Petraeus and John Allen from 2010 through 2012. After a major reduction this fall, the 100,000 U.S. personnel who were part of the war in Afghanistan will shrink to just over 10,000. (Numbers had been at roughly 30,000 U.S. troops earlier this year).

Based on the spring 2014 announcement, the plan is to reduce that number by half by the end of 2015. Then go to virtually zero combat forces by the end of 2016, as Obama prepares to leave the White House.

With these three overlapping, chronologically compressed draw-down plans — first to about 10,000, then to fewer than 6,000, then to zero — U.S. forces barely have time to begin a new mission before immediately preparing for its rapid termination.

In previous draw-down plans, Obama had always allowed the first one to play out and conditions to stabilize before determining and announcing the next one. That was true in late 2009, when the president announced the big surge to Afghanistan but simultaneously announced when it would end. And in 2011, when he declared his plans to reduce forces by a third by the end of summer 2012. Now, however, he seems in far too much of a hurry, even though the U.S. troop numbers, costs and battlefield risks are far less.

Leaving Afghanistan entirely in 2016 would be a big mistake. Beyond leaving in jeopardy the U.S. effort to stabilize and bring democracy to Afghanistan, this policy would deprive the United States of bases that it uses to fly drones and launch commando raids in the region — in eastern Afghanistan or western Pakistan — against al Qaeda targets. It is not just a matter of nation-building in Afghanistan. The United States would be sacrificing its ability to defend itself against its declared and dangerous enemies.

In 2015, Obama will have to figure all this out. He will also have to find a way to keep a few thousand U.S. forces at two or three operational bases in Afghanistan to hand off to his successor. The numbers of troops would not greatly exceed those likely to be in Iraq, or for that matter Djibouti, at the same time — perhaps just 10 percent of the number Obama had inherited from President George W. Bush in the war in Afghanistan back in 2009.

Keeping those assets in place to protect American lives, rather than ending the mission prematurely to satisfy an earlier campaign pledge, would be the better way to help the next occupant of the White House. And keep safe the American people — as well as Obama’s own national-security legacy.

 

PHOTO (TOP): U.S. Marines prepare to board a plane at the end of operations for U.S. Marines and British combat troops in Helmand, October 26, 2014. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani

PHOTO (INSERT 1): U.S. troops keep watch at the site of a suicide attack in Kabul, September 16, 2014. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani

PHOTO (INSERT 2): U.S. soldier Nicholas Dickhut from 5-20 infantry Regiment attached to 82nd Airborne points his rifle at a doorway after coming under fire by the Taliban while on patrol in Zharay district in Kandahar province, southern Afghanistan April 26, 2012. REUTERS/Baz Ratner

 

589 comments

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There is no way for the US to “fix” Afghanistan. But hey, we’re making money on it, or at least I should say many companies who lobby for militaristic responses to foreign policy issues are making money on it, and that’s all that matters here in the land of freedom and justice, making money. Once we leave, whenever that is, Afghanistan will return to the land of warlords and religious fanatics.

Posted by brotherkenny4 | Report as abusive

And sadly, there will be no objection from the left side of the isle.

Posted by norcalguy101 | Report as abusive

This is all just nonsense. There never was a possibility of standing up anything worthwhile in Afghanistan over at least a thirty year period. But there WAS such a possibility in Iraq, and it would have had a hundred times broader impact. Who cares what happens in Afghanistan? The simple fact is that the Europeans refused to hold up their end in Afghanistan and now want no further part in that debacle. See any mention of them in this “analysis”? So it’s all about sacrificing MORE US soldiers in a country that is STILL the Taliban’s for the taking, and doing so alone.

The only reason to leave US combat soldiers in Afghanistan would be the same as always – to protect CIA prisoner of war torture “black sites” and remote control drone and hired mercenary bases used for attacks into Pakistan, a country with which we have never been at war, but where more people have been killed than in Afghanistan, a country with which we HAVE been at war. And State has always been more interested in find something actually useful for the silly “NATO” bureaucracy to do, by turning a purely defensive alliance into a clumsy offensive threat to others. Let CIA and State bureaucrats hire their own protection forces; it’s always been THEIR stupid war anyway.

The United States, with the full urging of CIA and State, made the decision at the end of the “Cold” War that the US military would no longer be in the “nation-building” business, so that the half of US ground personnel who engaged in all the many different aspects of such unconventional warfare could be safely fired. Since “Europe was safe and history had ended, there was no longer an opposing global ideology out there that required winning hearts and minds.” Just one decade later, there “suddenly appeared” a whole new opposing global ideology that needed winning hearts and minds – and also needing a huge army of war profiteering contractors. So for the past twelve years we have been using Regular combat forces in a fruitless “nation-building” effort by requiring conventional ground soldiers to be used over and over and over doing ten different jobs at once, and dying like inanimate widget “troops” of no consequence – for no real purpose.

If you don’t know what you’re doing, don’t do it. Some of us have had more than enough of incompetent politicians, their political ideologue “advisors” and inept bureaucrats telling the children, spouses and parents of 7,000 dead and 45,000 maimed soldiers, “Never mind.”

Posted by Ground_Soldier | Report as abusive

This is all just nonsense. There never was a possibility of standing up anything worthwhile in Afghanistan over at least a thirty year period. But there WAS such a possibility in Iraq, and it would have had a hundred times broader impact – IF all of our ground soldiers were not pulled out too soon just to meet US domestic political objectives. Who cares what happens in Afghanistan? The simple fact is that the Europeans refused to hold up their end in Afghanistan and now want no further part in that debacle. See any mention of them in this “analysis”? So it’s all about sacrificing MORE US soldiers in a country that is STILL the Taliban’s for the taking, and doing so alone.

The only reason to leave US combat soldiers in Afghanistan would be the same as always – to protect CIA prisoner of war torture “black sites” and remote control drone and hired mercenary bases used for attacks into Pakistan, a country with which we have never been at war, but where more people have been killed than in Afghanistan, a country with which we HAVE been at war. And State has always been more interested in finding something actually useful for the silly “NATO” bureaucracy to do, by turning a purely defensive alliance into a clumsy offensive threat to others. Let CIA and State bureaucrats hire their own protection forces; it’s always been THEIR stupid war anyway.

The United States, with the full urging of CIA and State, made the decision at the end of the “Cold” War that the US military would no longer be in the “nation-building” business, so that the half of US ground personnel who engaged in all the many different aspects of such unconventional warfare could be safely fired. Since “Europe was safe and history had ended, there was no longer an opposing global ideology out there that required winning hearts and minds.” Just one decade later, there “suddenly appeared” a whole new opposing global ideology that needed winning of hearts and minds – and also needed a huge army of war profiteering contractors. So for the past twelve years we have been using Regular combat forces in a fruitless “nation-building” effort by requiring conventional ground soldiers to be used over and over and over doing ten different jobs at once, and dying like inanimate widget “troops” of no consequence – for no real purpose.

If you don’t know what you’re doing, don’t do it. Some of us have had more than enough of incompetent politicians, their political ideologue “advisors” and inept bureaucrats telling the children, spouses and parents of over 7,000 dead and 45,000 maimed soldiers, “Never mind.” Besides, the US government is again doing what it does best – firing US soldiers, and most of them are not nearly as stupid as the chattering class likes to imagine.

Posted by Ground_Soldier | Report as abusive

Where US troops go or remain, there go the government contractors, too. And where there are government contractors, there is waste and graft. Where there is waste and graft, the taxpayers lose.

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