Vladimir Putin’s economic plan: Bread and vodka
President Vladimir Putin needs two years to fix Russia’s current economic mess. At least that is what he gave himself at his December end-of-year news conference.
To date, Putin’s actions have concentrated on shoring up the financial sector, with bank bailouts and sporadic, largely ineffective currency interventions. Putin has offered relatively little, however, for Russia’s Main Street – just tired old proposals that he hopes will buy time until the Russian people adapt, in Putin’s words, to their new “fact(s) of life.”
Indeed, Putin’s economic plan can be reduced to two historical essentials — bread and vodka.
Putin’s seemingly relaxed attitude was on display during his December state-of-the-nation address, where his “new” economic initiatives included reforms for small business, a complete amnesty to return Russian capital from abroad and support for Russian technology. Yet none of his proposals possess the urgency — and the details –that would soften Russia’s looming deep recession.
Putin has never shown much interest in promoting the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises, even though they are widely recognized as key engines of economic growth. They make up only about 22 percent of the Russian economy, as opposed to 46 percent in the United States. One drain on the small- and medium-sized sector has been repeated inspections — and demands for extortion — by a host of government agencies, including health, fire and tax.
Putin’s proposed remedy — which includes a public registry to record each inspection, as well as an inspection “holiday” for businesses with three years of clean records — looks inadequate in light of the endemic corruption surrounding the inspection process. Indeed, with impending budget cuts, government inspectors will most likely extract more money from private businesses, not less.
In any case, with interest rates jacked up to 17 percent to defend the ruble, the small- and medium-business sector will be starved of credit for the foreseeable future and will have to fight for its survival — no matter what regulatory changes Putin introduces.
Putin’s address also included a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia — provided that a person has “legalized” his or her property in Russia. Capital flight from Russia remains at record levels, with an estimated $120 billion leaving the country in 2014. Finding a way to stop this outflow has been one of Putin’s top priorities since returning to the presidency. For example, he just signed a crucial law that would tax offshore holdings of all Russian-owned companies and individual citizens.
Putin’s proposed amnesty, however, offered no details. It remains unclear whether the repatriations would be subject to Russian taxes. Indeed, the amnesty law is not scheduled to be drafted until July 2015, at the earliest.
Some of the new offshore tax-reporting requirements would have already kicked in by then — placing Russians with money abroad at legal risk. Even if they had lawfully moved the money out of the country.
Russians with offshore accounts reportedly are busy finding ways to get around the new requirements, including changing their official places of residence to different countries. The treasury has never quantified how much money it expects to return onshore. But Russian amnesties usually come with major strings attached, and Russians abroad will face the difficult decision of whether or not to reveal their confidential offshore financial information to the tax authorities.
A third proposal in Putin’s state-of-the-nation address concerned the need to increase investment in technology. Putin specifically asked businesses and academics to inform the government of what assistance they need to expand Russia’s high-tech sector.
Yet noticeably absent was any mention of Russia’s most prominent technology project, Skolkovo, which has already received billions of dollars of public and private investment. Former President Dmitry Medvedev’s inspiration, Skolkovo was envisioned as a neo-Silicon Valley on the outskirts of Moscow. Several prominent Western companies (Cisco, Intel, Siemens, Samsung) and universities (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) initially signed up for Skolkovo, enticed by a combination of state research grants, tax exemptions and special legal privileges.
Yet Putin has rolled back all Medvedev’s major reforms — and Skolkovo is no exception. Several fraud investigations targeting Skolkovo have now been opened, which have raised big doubts about its ability to avoid government interference and even its long-term viability.
Despite significant government investment, Russian companies still prefer to buy their technology abroad for the obvious reason of better quality at a cheaper price. No state-imposed import-substitution policy would likely change this reality. In addition, much anecdotal evidence suggests that Russia’s true technology entrepreneurs are voting with their feet and leaving Russia for more stable business environments overseas.
Putin’s appeal for more investment in technology sounds more like a tired refrain than a new call to action.
So what is Putin offering Russia’s Main Street to weather this crisis — other than the promise that what goes down must inevitably go up? Why, the traditional Russian staples of bread and vodka.
The government announced just before Christmas that it intends to impose export duties on grain, specifically to lower domestic wheat prices. Putin also ordered that vodka prices be kept low, in part for genuine public health concerns. As the cost of vodka rises, Russians often turn to homemade moonshine that contains dubious — and lethal — alcohol substitutes. More likely, however, Putin knows that high vodka prices invariably correlate to low public-opinion ratings.
Though Putin remains politically unchallenged, he continues to look over his shoulder — and not without reason. Vladimir Lenin famously came to power on promises of peace, land and bread. Tsar Nicholas II, the last Romanov, and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev share little in common — except for major anti-alcohol campaigns, grain shortages and presiding over the collapse of their respective empires.
So Putin clearly is hunkering down. Though he still has almost $400 billion in foreign currency reserves, no one knows how long they will last and how much social tranquility they can buy.
Even if Putin can get his two years — a questionable assumption at this point — that will bring Russia right up to the next parliamentary election in 2016. Putin’s defensive turn inward began when his United Russia party was only able to retain its parliamentary majority through serious ballot manipulations in the 2011 Duma elections.
Would Putin allow for a genuine referendum on his economic policies in 2016? Unlikely. But if the recession hits the Russian Main Street as severely as many now predict, he may not be able to avoid it.
PHOTO (TOP): Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures as he watches the launch of the newest heavy-class Angara-A5 rocket at Plesetsk cosmodrome in Arkhangelsk region, via a video link at the Russian Presidential Situation center at the Kremlin in Moscow, December 23, 2014. REUTERS/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
PHOTO (INSERT 1): An employee places a bottle of vodka on a counter during the agro-industrial exhibition “Agrorus” in St. Petersburg April 4, 2014. REUTERS/Alexander Demianchuk
PHOTO (INSERT 2): Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow, December 18, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev
PHOTO (INSERT 3): An exterior view shows the Skolkovo Hypercube at the Skolkovo Innovation Centre on the outskirts of Moscow May 20, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
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I have had to read this a few times as I was stunned by its stupidity. You could re write this and keep changing the name of the country and president and it would suit. When oh when has the USA UK ever held a referendum on economic policy. Of course we are offered the world at election time but none of the promises are ever kept.
In other words he offered the Khazar Oligars an amnesty to return the stash of cash or share the faith of Berezosky.
Anyone bringing capital, or themselves, back into Russia once they have escaped, would have to be insane.
Its amazing how oligarths are evil but western business men and bankers are good. The sooner the so called western powers accept Russia as they have Saudi Arabia etc the sooner this drive towards conflict will stop
in just a few months, i will hit medicare age.
given that circumstance, i could support a president who ran on a platform of bread and vodka.
let’s get him to move here.
Reuters: “Indeed, Putin’s economic plan can be reduced to two historical essentials – bread and vodka.”
… No one knows what will happen tomorrow. However, having started with the gangster capitalism in the nineties, Russia now allows herself to resist the pressure of the Western world (with a population of over a billion people). I think this is just the beginning, that can be adopted by a majority of the Russians, if the latter-day capitalists would exonerate themselves of the regal (bandit, mentoring, missionary, and other) clothes, and would take on the role of managers of complex services, regardless of the ownership. Any attempt of entrepreneurs (officials, bankers, priests) to exalt themselves at the expense of the obedient “flock” will be rejected, sooner or later. Actually, President Putin shows this by his behaviour.
Old Russian saying: “Comes the revolution. A sword in one hand, a rifle in the other.”
Not if, but when.
Russian people have the choice- they can surround Putin and drag him from office if they choose.
The Russia of Tsar Putin I is little different than Tsar Nicolas I. Same oligarchs, same phase. “Autocracy, Orthodoxy, Nation.” No difference in attitude. Same oligarchy from Peter I through Nicolas II. Different names, different faces, same old, same old Tsarist Russia. At least Putin knows enough to keep the military happy.
Oligarchs are oligarchs the world over. Oligarchs in Russia, Cartel owners in America or Capitalists. Same difference. They rule the countries. This “war” is economic, not military (as of now). Little different than the Middle East 3000 B.C.E. (5000 years ago.) Humankind hasn’t evolved much. Just in weaponry and gadgets.
Well, Russia may be heading toward a deep recession in 2015 and maybe can’t recover easily therafter. But, as all can agree, economies of Baltic states literally have been crushed some 5 years ago, with economic contraction much steeper than it’s anticipated for Russia. I don’t remember any serious consequences. Greece just reported an exit form 6-year long recession, and anti-EU sentiment is soaring. I suggest, it’s somehow stupid to assume that Russia will bow to the West when faces the first economic hurdles. Moreover, it’s more of a typical Western style “analytics” to assume, that Russia will shift national policy to satisfy the demands of the USA, UK, Germany. It’s just not about Putin, whoever comes to the power in Russia more or less will continue to follow the traditional Russian policies, and if West continues to dream of taming Russia and a return to the Post-Soviet era chaotic state in Russia, that dream will not realize anytime soon. China, India, Brazil and other countries also have much greater power, and the Western economic and political dominance and power are slowly decreasing. While aiming to punish Russia, the powerful nations of the European Union are actually weakening their positions inside the bloc, and while messing with the Ukrainian issue, probably will face longtime problems rather than benefits as a result of that confrontation.
50% of all Russian men over the age of 40 are supposed to be alcoholics. No more needs to be said.
Of course the “inspections” will continue. They are part and parcel of the shake-down system that feeds the parasitic “power” structures and government bureaucrats. Small and medium business will struggle on but talent and time is wasted in getting around the extortion.
As for repatriation of offshore capital back to Russia, dream on…
Another propaganda piece by Mr. William E. Pomeranz. We (Americans) seem to need Russia…as an adversary so the MIC can continue on unabated and as somebody to look at (via articles such as this one, bereft of any reality) so that we can feel better about ourselves.
Don’t worry about Putin and the Russians, they’ve endured for a 1000 years and they’ll get over these Western sanctions too. …Besides, its utterly inconsequential to our lives and serves only as a distraction from the bleak situation at home. Look up Princeton study on how the US is in fact an oligarchy, not a democracy. Thats what you should be concerned with, not Putin.
Such writings are only possible when they serve promoting specific viewpoints against objective analysis. Take for example the question of capital outflows from Russia. 120 mld dollars should obviously be confronted not only with the 400 mld dollars of reserves but also with the current balance of payments which for the 2014 will be *positive* in the region of 70 mld dollars. Then of course the 120 number looses its appeal.
Ot take another example on the role of small businesses and innovations in economy. That pales comparing to the US but it is not so different from many parts of EU, not even those
southern which are in the hopeless crisis now. Thus, Russia current economic problems are no more fundamental than the EU problems. However, such comparison is not promoting the specific point of view and so it is neglected.
Please do not allow for this much pondering over Russia and its future. Yes, vodka is Russian beverage and bread is another essential product still consumed all around the world.
Now close to the point, STOP this mockery of Mr.Putin and Russian people who elected and do support their state man over one’s presidential term. Russian people are very sick of decaying western values and increasingly exposed hypocrisy of politicians in the US and EU.
Mr. Pomeranz, what is US economic plan ? To keep borrowing from entire world at 2-3% in order to pay older debt ? To overthrow govts around the world to expand its shpere of influence ? To drive Russia out of European markets in order to export gas and oil from US ?
Low-grade sensationalistic propaganda journalism, more interested in creative interpretation of Putin’s statements position than in objectively reporting the news.
“Putin’s seemingly relaxed attitude” – so you analysed your own biased perception rather than that Putin took no Christmas holidays and mandated other officials do the same so they could work with him to find solutions to their challenges? Is taking no time off over Christmas you concept of “relaxed”? The rest of this article is just as bad as the ignorance the writer displayed in the aforementioned remark. Worthless false journalism – unless propaganda is the goal, which can’t be ruled out.
Lots and lots of Russian trolls on this site. Paid hacks don’t impress me.
This Pomeranz is the same lunatic Pomerantsev, or another one?
Putin is fear mongering and not in touch with reality. Unfortunately we should not want to do business with Russia and we should encourage China to do likewise. Putin’s grand plan is a greater Russia where other countries are subject to Russia or more specifically the magnificent one Tsar Putin. Russians deserve better after suffering for so long; they give Putin the credit for striking it rich with oil and commodities. Putin has declared we are the enemy and has an imagination of being slighted. Just like Hitler when fascism begins to sting, the truth will prevail. There is no redemption for bad ass Putin in the west ; he is a sickly sight.
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Good day! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could locate a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having difficulty finding one? Thanks a lot!
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Howdy! Quick question that’s totally off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My web site looks weird when viewing from my iphone 4. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any suggestions, please share. Thanks!
Hey would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m having a hard time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!
I am curious to find out what blog platform you are using? I’m experiencing some minor security issues with my latest website and I would like to find something more risk-free. Do you have any recommendations?
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Greetings! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say I genuinely enjoy reading your blog posts. Can you suggest any other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same subjects? Many thanks!
Wow that was strange. I just wrote an incredibly long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Regardless, just wanted to say great blog!
As a Newbie, I am constantly browsing online for articles that can help me. Thank you
Excellent site you have here but I was curious if you knew of any message boards that cover the same topics talked about in this article? I’d really love to be a part of group where I can get feedback from other knowledgeable people that share the same interest. If you have any suggestions, please let me know. Bless you!
Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything. However imagine if you added some great photos or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this website could certainly be one of the best in its field. Fantastic blog!
Have you ever considered creating an e-book or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog based on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my visitors would appreciate your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get set up? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy so I’m not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you|
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