Why Ukraine shouldn’t be offered NATO membership

January 12, 2015

A U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter is seen as it escorts a Lithuania's Air Force C-27J plane during a joint NATO military exercise in Siauliai

Placing Ukraine on the path to NATO membership is currently promoted by Kiev and some forces in the West, who believe in getting tough with Russia.

There are plenty of reasons why the West wants to rein Russia in. The war with Georgia in August 2008, the recent annexation of Crimea and the hybrid war in Ukraine are all evidence of expansionist behavior that concerns Europe and the United States. Some see arming Ukraine, and making it a NATO member, as the best way of achieving stability. This, however, is a dangerous idea.

There are reasons to believe that the move will provoke Russia, a country that already feels threatened by the West’s growing influence in Eastern Europe ever since the collapse of communism.

To Russian foreign policy experts, NATO remains one of the most tangible threats to the country. That is no surprise, given that it was created as a Western alliance against the Soviet Union.

In 2008, the United States first started openly pushing for Georgia and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. At the time, Russia responded with alarm. As early as June 2006, Russia’s foreign minister said that Ukraine or Georgia joining NATO could lead to a colossal shift in global geopolitics. Fearful of the consequences of admitting the countries into the alliance, France and Germany managed to block membership at the NATO Summit in April 2008, which was held in Bucharest.

It is not just NATO that has Russia on edge. The United States and other leading Western nations like France, Britain and Germany, endorsed the “color revolutions” in former Soviet countries like Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, which were seen as highly destabilizing by Russia.

Then, in February 2014, Western governments supported the Maidan protests in Kiev, which the Kremlin feared could be a prelude to revolution in Russia itself. As President Vladimir Putin put it in his Crimea speech, “with Ukraine, our Western partners have crossed the line, playing the bear and acting irresponsibly and unprofessionally.”

The tense stand-off that followed between the West and Russia resulted in an ever-worsening situation in Ukraine and the widest-ranging sanctions against Russia since the end of the Cold War. Relations keep hitting new lows, and will only deteriorate further if NATO membership for Ukraine remains on the Western agenda.

Is the West prepared for an aggressive response by Putin to the perceived NATO threat?

Putin has boldly tested the West’s will on numerous occasions. The European Leadership Initiative Network recently issued a report in which it documented about 40 dangerous incidents between Russia and NATO planes since March 2014. The incidents included “violations of national airspace, emergency scrambles, narrowly avoided mid-air collisions, close encounters at sea, simulated attack runs and other dangerous happenings,” according to the report.

Among the routine skirmishes taking place, there have been 11 “serious” incidents, such Russian planes flying unusually close to Western warships. More worryingly still, three incidents last year ran a high risk of leading to either casualties or direct military intervention. The ‘submarine hunt’ in Swedish waters in October, the Russian abduction of a veteran Estonian intelligence officer in September, and a near-collision of a Russian surveillance plane with an SAS flight from Copenhagen, Denmark, to Rome in March: all of these incidents could have led to unintended escalation.

Meanwhile, the West seems unwilling to respond to Russia with resolve. Russia seized the Estonian officer a mere two days after President Barack Obama visited Tallinn and promised Estonia full military support. NATO and the European Union called for a strong response to the incident, but so far no such response followed, indicating the lack of will to engage with an aggressive Russia.

In Russia, support for robust actions only grows stronger by the day. Due to the economic sanctions and domestic propaganda campaign, the overwhelming majority of Russians now view the Western nations as enemies seeking to destroy Russia and its leaders. If need be, the Kremlin will have no serious difficulty finding public support for an outright military intervention in Ukraine.

The solution to this is not NATO membership for Ukraine. Such a move will only contribute to turning Russia from an angry but manageable power into a real enemy and, possibly, starting a wider war in Europe.

Stability hinges on the West agreeing not to pull Ukraine into NATO or the EU. For the time being, it is beneficial to have Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security and development, together with the West.

In a longer run, a new conference on European security must be called to formally end the post-Cold War era and establish a security system with Russia and Ukraine as key players.

PHOTO: A U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter is seen as it escorts a Lithuania’s Air Force C-27J plane during a joint NATO military exercise in Siauliai April 1, 2014. REUTERS/Ints Kalnins 

 

278 comments

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Let me sum up this article briefly – “Ukraine has not right to self determination and should be used as a pawn to appease russia.”

How very russian of you,Tsygankov. And by russian, I mean, “evil,” “genocidal,” and “sociopathic.”

A few points:

1. Ukraine is a sovereign nation. It can decide it’s own fate.

2. The VAST MAJORITY of Ukrainians support closer ties with the west and away from it’s historical torturer – russia.

3. The invading russians MUST leave Ukraine. These invaders have now killed almost 5,000 Ukrainians and illegally annexed part of Ukraine. This is point 10 in the Minsk Accord.

4. The russians must pay renumeration to the victims of MH17 and to Ukraine for The Holodomor – which the russians must acknowledge as genocide(every civilized country in the world does so already).

5. Sooner or later, the russians must accept their position as a third world gas station, and grow from there. “Growth” does not mean repeatedly attacking and invading your neighbors.

Ukraine is free to choose it’s allegiances, and russia must get out of Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to apply for NATO membership, let it – clearly the russians will continue to be aggressors if this article is any indication of a typical russian’s mentality; at least then the border will be solid and well defined and no more innocent people will be killed.

Posted by AlexLTDLX | Report as abusive

Let me sum up this article briefly – “Ukraine has not right to self determination and should be used as a pawn to appease russia.”

How very russian of you,Tsygankov. And by russian, I mean, “evil,” “genocidal,” and “sociopathic.”

A few points:

1. Ukraine is a sovereign nation. It can decide it’s own fate.

2. The VAST MAJORITY of Ukrainians support closer ties with the west and away from it’s historical torturer – russia.

3. The invading russians MUST leave Ukraine. These invaders have now killed almost 5,000 Ukrainians and illegally annexed part of Ukraine. This is point 10 in the Minsk Accord.

4. The russians must pay renumeration to the victims of MH17 and to Ukraine for The Holodomor – which the russians must acknowledge as genocide(every civilized country in the world does so already).

5. Sooner or later, the russians must accept their position as a third world gas station, and grow from there. “Growth” does not mean repeatedly attacking and invading your neighbors.

Ukraine is free to choose it’s allegiances, and russia must get out of Ukraine. If Ukraine wants to apply for NATO membership, let it – clearly the russians will continue to be aggressors if this article is any indication of a typical russian’s mentality; at least then the border will be solid and well defined and no more innocent people will be killed.

Posted by AlexLTDLX | Report as abusive

Neither Georgia nor Ukraine are NATO members – but Russia is pushing Westward into Europe with its unlawful annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea and by its support for pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine. NATO is needed for European collective security against this emerging threat of the New Russian Empire – but until Kazakhstan, China and Mongolia join NATO, Russia won’t be surrounded.

Posted by JNewcomb | Report as abusive

Ukraine is a sovereign country – a concept russians (like the “author” of this piece of tripe) can’t seem to grasp.

The russians have invaded Ukraine, murdered thousands of Ukrainians in Ukraine, illegally annexed part of Ukraine, and show no signs of stopping.

The russians have a history of commiting acts of war, genocide and other atrocities against their neighbors.

Clearly, the Ukrainians want NATO’s help in order to stop the killings, and have the right and prerogative to ask. Equally as clearly, the russians must be made to understand the meaning of a border with a sovereign nation must be respected.

Give Ukraine NATO membership!

Posted by AlexLTDLX | Report as abusive

NATO is a defensive organization to protect its member states from aggression. Who is the aggressor in Europe? Hint, it’s not NATO or Ukraine, or Moldova, or Georgia or Latvia or Estonia or Lithuania. See the trend?

Posted by smokeymtnblues | Report as abusive

Sorry, but this author is way off base. The only way to speak the same language as Putin is to defend Ukraine the same brutal way Putin’s limited knowledge of leadership knows. Ukraine has made steady progress in the east against the separatists because Ukraine has been speaking the only language Putin understand; Brute force and sanctions.

Posted by Billgreen54 | Report as abusive

You have to be kidding! – “it is beneficial to have Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security and development” is like saying it would have been beneficial for Hitler and the Nazis to be a co-provider of security and development for the Jews of Europe prior to WWII.

Posted by WJHK | Report as abusive

That would’ve been a nice article if Russia hadn’t been already waging war on Ukraine. Ukraine is not a member of NATO — Russia wages a proxy war; if Ukraine becomes a member some day — Russia will feel “threatened” and may intervene (according to the author). I don’t see any difference, do you?
The only reasonable part of the author’s piece is the very last passage, but even so it doesn’t say anything specific at all.

Posted by YegorR | Report as abusive

First question I have is Andrei Tsygankov Russian?

“If need be, the Kremlin will have no serious difficulty finding public support for an outright military intervention in Ukraine” They have already provided out right military support, remember they said no we were not in Crimea strongly denied it, and later said, oh ya I guess we were. Also Russia helped commit a terrorist act by providing anti-aircraft weapons to the “rebels” (Russian soldiers) who accidentally, or not shot down a passenger airliner.

Russia want’s it’s old block back, and will do what they can with a EX (maybe) KGB Col. Putin to get what they want. What they did not expect was the drop in Oil Prices, which is going to screw over their country, so they will need to invade more countries, either covertly or through WW3.

Posted by Skywarn27 | Report as abusive

@JNewcomb: You worry about “unlawfulness”, but apparently have no problem with the former elected (i.e. “lawful”) government being overthrown by riots.

@AlexLTDLX: You are mistaken dear friend. It is Ukrainians from west Ukraine that have done the vast majority of murdering and Ukrainians from the east who have done the vast majority of dying. About 80% of Ukrainian refugees in the conflict zone went to Russia, 5% to Belarus, and a paltry 15% to west Ukraine. East Ukrainians know very well who the murderers are, and they vote with their feet.

@Billgreen54: Your information is out of date. Poroshenko has recently conceded that Kiev cannot win a military victory. The only way to speak the same language as Poroshenko is to defend the people of east Ukraine the same brutal way Poroshenko’s limited knowledge of leadership knows. To your dismay, purging the ethnic Russian population (which has been there for hundreds of years) out of Ukraine’s east apparently isn’t going to happen.

Posted by Squeamish | Report as abusive

I disagree with the author’s false premise that Russia must be included in securing Ukraine’s sovereignty, since it is Russia that has already invaded, taken the Crimean peninsula, and wages a daily war against Ukraine.

The analogy of the fox guarding the henhouse is not enough. This is like suggesting that the fox, while gorging itself on hens and rending the chicken coop to shreds, be given full reign over the farm because he is the closest to the problem, and has the most intimate familiarity with chickens.

Posted by plymster | Report as abusive

The solution is not to surround Russia with NATO members but to include Russia into it in order to eliminate Russia’s perception of threat from NATO. With Russia being a NATO member, it will be impossible for them to seek support to invade or annex another NATO state – it will then be very easy to punish Russia as a member.

Posted by ForFact | Report as abusive

“For the time being, it is beneficial to have Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security and development, together with the West.”

This is simply hilarious.

Russia has kept the Orange revolution and even independence for Ukraine largely moot since the early 90’s with a combination of intimidation and corrupt oligarchs. Granted, much of this is a problem that Ukraine themselves created and Russia also has it’s own problems, but Russia as a provider of security? From whom?

An honest assessment of the situation is that Russia views Ukraine the way that America has historically viewed South America as it’s own personal fiefdom of banana republics.

Putting Ukraine into NATO would end Russia’s ambition for future territory grabs which is why they don’t want that to happen at all costs.

Posted by PolishKnightUSA | Report as abusive

“Stability hinges on the West agreeing not to pull Ukraine into NATO or the EU.”

Please. It is Russia that cannot seem to accept †hat the only threat it faces in the 21st century is that other countries have learned that “stability” with an ambitious dictator is, at best, an illusion most temporary.

The majority of citizens of Ukraine have chosen against continued Russian blackmail and domination. That is their right. They are not, and do not want to be, second-class citizens of Russia.

“Putin has boldly tested the West’s will on numerous occasions.” “…three incidents last year ran a high risk of leading to either casualties or direct military intervention.”

“Relations keep hitting new lows, and will only deteriorate further if NATO membership for Ukraine remains on the Western agenda.” So the rest of the world should yield to international blackmail?

“Is the West prepared for an aggressive response by Putin to the perceived NATO threat?” If not, now’s the time to prepare. Until Putin understands that an aggressive response to his military adventurism will be the ultimate result, this nonsense will continue and even escalate.

And he will continue to do so, playing the part of the international bully.

Posted by OneOfTheSheep | Report as abusive

Mr. Tsygankov writes that “it is beneficial to have Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security and development, together with the West.” But Russia has already proven that it is not interested in such a role and in fact is trying its best to destroy Ukraine.
Before Vladimir Putin’s military invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea and then tried the same in the Donbas, thus starting a war there, the great majority of Ukrainians were against joining NATO. Ukrainians were surrounded by supposedly “friendly” nations thus there was no need to join any military blocs. Furthermore, many Ukrainians were opposed to NATO because of NATO’s war against Yugoslavia. Also, Ukraine was supposedly protected by the USA, Britain and Russia who offered the country security assurances for having given up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Russia had also signed many other agreements since 1991 which recognized Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Therefore, Ukrainians felt assured that they had no enemies and had security guarantees. Yet Russia proved Ukrainians wrong and now after the Russian invasions with almost 5,000 dead and over a million refugees, the great majority of Ukrainians not only want to join NATO, they DEMAND that their government join NATO. And can you blame them? In fact, the USA and Britain owe Ukraine NATO membership since they signed the Budapest Memorandum and gave Ukraine security guarantees. But does Putin really think that his actions in invading and annexing Ukrainian territory should be rewarded by not allowing Ukraine to join NATO? Should the West now reward Putin for his invasion and war by not allowing Ukraine to join NATO? This would certainly send him a very warped message that he can invade and annex countries and then be rewarded for his actions.
However, having said all of the above, I must say that NATO expansion has nothing to do with Putin’s actions. Yanukovych had absolutely no intentions of ever joining NATO and yet Putin, nonetheless, started a serious trade war against Ukraine in the summer of 2013 by banning the import of various Ukrainian goods. Russia openly stated that this was so that Ukrainians would not sign the Association Agreement with the EU. And yet Russia itself was negotiating similar agreements with the EU. The real reasons for Putin’s attack on Ukraine is twofold 1) Putin has been trying to recreate a new “Soviet Union” or “Russian Empire” which MUST include Ukraine. And when he could see that Ukraine had no plans on joining his “empire”, he decided to invade Ukraine to force it to join. 2) the fact that the Ukrainian people rose up against Putin’s installed puppet – Yanukovych – is very scary to Putin who is no less a crook than Yanukovych and even more of a dictator. A popular uprising against Putin’s corrupt and dictatorial regime is his worst nightmare and the example that the Ukrainian people gave the Russian people, had to be destroyed. For this reason, Putin is trying his best to destabilize and destroy Ukraine and always uses the arguments that such “coloured” revolutions will bring no good to the Russian people using the example of “how bad things are in Ukraine now”. Therefore, NATO expansion has absolutely nothing to do with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. His holding on to power and imperialist expansion are his real reasons. And this is exactly why Ukraine MUST join NATO and the West should support Ukraine to ensure that the country becomes economically stable and prosperous. A prosperous, free and pro-Western Ukraine is exactly what Putin fears most.

Posted by DaveyT | Report as abusive

Ukraine is a corrupt, bankrupt nation. Stupid and arrogant move by the West. Much too fast of a move. No I am not Russian or an admirer of Putin who is a tug!

Posted by Hermist | Report as abusive

Ukraine in Nato and EU? Are you all nutters? This is a country run by crooks and neo-Nazis, first time since the end of WWII. The country is bankrupt, President takes orders from EU, the clown PM Himmler takes orders from Washington. By Spring Russia will have invaded Ukraine. At least for the sake of thousand of civilians killed by the Kiev junta.

Posted by dubechue | Report as abusive

” to have Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security and development, together with the West” === ruSSia has already appointed itSSelf ”a provider of Ukraine’s SSecurity”… The result is well known all over the world: 6,000 UKRAINIANS are DEAD,– young men, full of life, will never become fathers, young women will never give birth, children will never grow up… putinSS and his ideological SSupport are looking for the waySS to get out of the horrible SSituation, they, themSSelveSS!, created in UKRAINE. Slava UKRAINI!

Posted by Valna | Report as abusive

I can answer one thing to all these negative comments. I am originally form Crimea and it was Russia who saved my family from the horrible war that was about to start there. It seems that all of you read only one side of the story which is a pure propaganda. As a true Crimean I am telling you – you have no idea about the true situation in Crimea, about Crimean history, about all these almost 80% of people voted to come back to Russia, about all the Ukrainian abuse of the majority of Crimeans while Crimea illegally belong to Ukraine. And, most importantly, that people of Crimea are happy now. I know, I know, you wouldn’t want to believe me, since you don’t like to be wrong… Just buy a ticket and go there. And see for yourself. Otherwise, don’t argue with me. I was there just two months ago.

Posted by Olga33 | Report as abusive

This says it all: “Andrei Pavlovich Tsygankov (Russian: Андрей Павлович Цыганков) is a Russian-born academic and author in the fields of international relations.” Another apologist of Russian supremacy and supporter of Russian aggression. A disgust for the US academics.

Posted by FreedomWriters | Report as abusive

there is principle here does the UKranine not have the right as an independent country do what they want rightly or wrongly. when you allow countries to bully other country is this alright

Posted by finisher | Report as abusive

Seeing many comments like “vast majority of Ukrainians support … NATO, EU association” – sure that the media narrative you read every day.
How difficult to notice that Donbas region for instance was vastly against the new vector of “democratically” elected leadership (they did not even participate in the last parliament elections).
Ratio of opinions across the country is somewhat ambiguous, grading from “we are with Russia” to “we are with Europe”.
There are many references to opinions from Odessa, Kharkiv and etc. which are totally against alienating from Russia. Simply because they are Russians (“pro” if you like) living in Ukraine.
How about this statement – almost every second family in Ukraine have direct relatives in Russia (brother, cousin … etc) Do you know how to split them ?
Converting majority of those Russians into Ukrainians is just western project … last attempt on Maidan (after 2004, 2008) was sadly quite successful.

Posted by Slat | Report as abusive

It was a big mistake for the Ukraine to join Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in exchange for “Security Assurances” because there are no “Security Assurances” at all !!!

Russian agression against Ukraine clearly demonstrated to all countrues in the World that joining Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons will make your county weak and will make foreign agression possible.
Iran, India, Pakistan and others, please do not repeat the mistake of the Ukraine! Only possessing nuclear weapons will guard your independance today!

According to the Budapest Memorandum memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:
* Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
* Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
* Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
* Seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, “if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”.
* Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments.

Now Russia started war against the Ukraine – this is how countries remember their obligations!

Posted by KovalenkoFP | Report as abusive

“which the Kremlin feared could be a prelude to revolution in Russia itself”

This is the problem. NATO is not an offensive force but a defensive one. Putin knows this. What he is actually worried about is not NATO, but his control over the Russian population. Without a common enemy, the Russian people will become more discontent and see the reality – that a lot of their taxes end up making the friends of Putin, the people that keep him in power, even richer. An evil, aggressive and outright fictitious NATO is simply a distraction for the population.

Ultimately Ukraine is it’s own country and should be allowed to make it’s own choices. Whether that suits other governments internal policies should not be a deciding factor.

Posted by marty_CA | Report as abusive

NATO membership is a moot debate at the moment. Ukraine is fighting for its survival against a Russian invasion – as anon-NATO member but as a Europen country.

EU support against invasion is not conditional on Ukraine being part of NATO – and if it were, the crises might have escalated to WWIII by now, as US military action against Russia would have been required.

For now, crusshing the Russian economy and negotiating their withdrawal from Ukraine will have to be the goals – NATO membership is a moot point with a war on already.

Posted by DonD1977 | Report as abusive

When will you all learn.Ukraine will not have Russia dictate or be involved in how it does it’s own business or conducts itself with it’s security.To long Russian led Oligarchs and leaders have dipped their fingers (whole hands it would be better to say) into Ukraine’s wealth and rapped it over the years.Now they lost that big money pit so why not start WW3 and take the rest of Europe.This article is completely biased towards Russia such that one would wonder the allegiance of the journalist/editors of this publication to impartial reporting

Posted by Aussieuke | Report as abusive

“Why Ukraine shouldn’t be offered NATO membership” the answer provided by this article is basically that we should appease Russia

Posted by thslm56 | Report as abusive

This column could very well have been co-authored by Putin himself. The analysis and conclusions are too pat.

Posted by Margaretville | Report as abusive

Realistically speaking, there is little chance that NATO nations would stand up for the Ukraine in case of a Russian invasion.

Since NATO leaders know that, they should be very careful about their forthcoming actions. So if they decide talk the talk, they should be prepared to walk to the walk. This is what the author says.

In today’s world, one’s right to self-determination is only as strong as the ability to enforce it. Sad but true.

Posted by galexico | Report as abusive

“Russia as a co-provider of Ukraine’s security” – that’s some clever thought after Russia has annexed Crimea…

Posted by romanmeh | Report as abusive

I doubt Ukraine is eligible for NATO membership with a Russian naval base in Crimea. Given that Russia has declared her sovereignty over Crimea, there is little Ukraine can do about it.

Posted by NewRuin2015 | Report as abusive

“Unintended escalation” !!!
Who wants escalation?When writer agrees support of color revolution by the west which means Russia was always defensive.This means “Escalation”is the intention of EU/US,more so of US.Garbachove is right both parties are playing with fire and that fire in modern time will burn not only both but the whole world.It will be a nuclear war certainly because there is unbalanced power.EU/US a bigger power if frustrate Russia,they will be compelled to use nuclear weapons come what may more so because of Russia can not afford extensive war with present financial condition due to sanctions.EU,more so US should have time to repent their mistakes to save thousands from suffering and dieing.

Posted by gentalman | Report as abusive

Ukraine is only a play ground.Actually issue is between the west and Russia,more so for the west who made blunder to support initial revolt to dethrone earlier president.Some interested and corrupt individuals like present PM has destroyed a progressing country.

Posted by gentalman | Report as abusive

The U.S. should stay out of it. There is no need to start another war. In a matter of fact, why NATo stil exists? There is no need subsidize Germany and other NATO countries. Many of those countries are well developed countries that should pay for their own security. The U.S. is broke with trillions of dollars in debt. Stop being the world’s police. Also, imagine if Russia is encouraging Mexico, Canada, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, etc, to join its military alliance, wouldn’t the U.S. feel provoked then?

Posted by superbreakfast | Report as abusive

Did I hear a Russian dialect while reading this article. It sounds lke it came directly out of the Kremlin newsroom.

The West and NATO need to embrace Ukraine as a partner in the global march of freedom. Russians should be happy even if their dictator is not.

Putin has leveraged a historic uptick in energy markets (THAT IS NOW GONE) with a depopulation and exile of intellectuals of Russia to creat a bread and circuses calm. That will end soon also.

Putin would do well to stash his gains, call an election of a new regime, marry a debutante gymnast actress or whatever and go hide. This Screaming Eagle party is ending.

Posted by leftcoastrighty | Report as abusive

As a loyal US citizen, I applaud restarting the cold war, and I also like the idea of a proxy war in Ukraine. Ukraine is a great venue for us. It’s a bit awkward for us to be supporting the Nazis, but most people won’t notice that, and our news-media will help cover that detail.

Posted by Nehmo | Report as abusive

Calling Russia a manageable partner is in it’s self delusional fiction, but then the author is Russian. NATO has reached out to Russia many times for cooperation, even missile defense for Europe, and have been constantly rebuffed. Russia was more cooperative when they felt that NATO could over run them with ease but at this stage of their military modernization program that fear has vanished. The author ignores the multiple treaties signed by Russia, not just the Budapest Accord, that they swear to respect sovereignty and the right to self determination for all nations not just Ukraine. Russia’s demand for political influence in Ukraine is a treaty violation, Russia’s demand for Ukraine to stay out of the EU is a treaty violation, Russia’s demand that Ukraine not join NATO is once again another treaty violation signed by Putin’s regime. No return of territory to Ukraine has ever been on the table at any time and no obligations by Russia in the Minsk Accord have ever seriously been enacted. So in light of at least 4 different agreements agreed to with Russia and all broken, not even mentioning the broken arms treaties by Russia, under what precedent can the world expect Russia to abide by whatever terms they might even agree to? Please Mr Andrei Tsygankov explain to us poor unenlightend masses. Are we seriously expected to believe that if we throw 45 million Ukrainians under the bus to make Russia happy that their aggression is going to end there? like it ended after Georgia right? with Russian soldiers still in Georgia now as we speak. Russia is going to be a security partner with us for Ukraine as if they’ll be welcome in Ukraine by the Ukrainians after everything they’ve done thus far. Russia just keeps pushing and pushing for confrontation with NATO and the West, who have been more than patient, unfortunately history teaches us that there are limits to patience. That point of no return is coming at us quickly now and the term new cold war is quickly becoming obsolete as relations with Russia are getting awfully close to Cuban Missile Crises level. Do Russians honestly believe that any part of Russia is going to survive a nuclear exchange with all of NATO? Russia can’t knock out all of the western world in such an attack. Have Russians done the math for manpower available to NATO vs Russia? let’s take a simple look at population alone, 750 million people in NATO vs 150 million people in Russia. Well as a citizen of a NATO country I like those odds and have no fear of waking up to Russian tanks outside my window, can Russians say the same about NATO tanks showing up in Moscow? Russia has made it abundantly clear that they aren’t interested in diplomacy, our only option is to prepare for war and pray that it never comes to that. Let us hope that Putin follows his hero Stalin’s path precisely and is found murdered by the people he trusted the most.

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