No, a Russian military occupation of Ukraine isn’t on the table

February 11, 2015

 

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols the area as people stand in line to receive humanitarian aid near a delivery point in the government forces-controlled town of Debaltseve, Donetsk region February 6, 2015.  REUTERS/Maxim

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols the area as people stand in line to receive humanitarian aid near a delivery point in the government forces-controlled town of Debaltseve, Donetsk region, Feb. 6, 2015. REUTERS/Maxim

The battle for east Ukraine is getting nastier by the day. Pro-Russian rebels, believed  to be reinforced by Russian troops, are successfully pushing back against the Ukrainian army in an attempt to take over strategic transport and energy hubs, like Debaltseve and Mariupol, for the sake of making their self-proclaimed state more sustainable.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians along the eastern Ukraine frontline have been affected by the brutal fighting. The death toll is rising rapidly: over 5,000 people have died in Ukraine since the fighting started in Spring 2014. Ukraine says 9,000 Russian troops are inside the country, 50,000 more are on the border and ready to enter anytime. Russia denies any military presence, although it does not rule out the possibility that Russian volunteer fighters may be operating inside the country. Numerous reports from foreign, Ukrainian and even Russian journalists dispute the Kremlin’s assertions. They say that Russian military units are indeed fighting in east Ukraine.

Faced with this situation, Ukrainian government officials and the public at large are enthusiastic about the news that the U.S. is considering arming the country.

Scared for its future, post-revolutionary Ukraine wants a stable flow of Western military support, including lethal weapons. Many in Ukraine believe this is only this way to save the country from total occupation by Russia.

But let’s get real. Nuclear Russia spends 50 times more on its army annually than Ukraine does, and it has about four times more soldiers and six times as many military aircraft. It could take over Ukraine in a matter of days. Kiev is just 120 miles from the Russian border. And although nobody knows for sure what’s inside Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mind, the occupation of Ukraine is not on the table, at least not yet. Instead, it looks like a covert invasion of east Ukraine suits Russia much more: it keeps Ukraine on the verge of collapsing, robbing the country and its potential investors of any sense of stability, without using the military might required for a full invasion.

Arming Ukraine will not fix the country’s huge military imbalance with Russia. Unless, of course, Western allies are ready to shell out $70 billion per year. That’s what it would take to match Russia’s military. Finding that kind of cash is unlikely. Ukraine is having a hard time getting the estimated $15 billion it needs to avoid default this year. Importantly, a war-fatigued United States, which is preparing for presidential elections in 2016, would scarcely seem to be open to military involvement in yet another country.

At the same time, solving the problem is a lot more complex that simply providing Ukraine with weapons. The country is ravaged by corruption, and its political system and economy is in shambles. Any military support would have to be conditional upon effective reforms. Without that, arming Ukraine would be irresponsible —  it would be no different to giving a gun to a crook.

The Ukrainian army, too, is widely considered to be plagued by corruption and incompetence. It is also reportedly infiltrated by Russian intelligence. This might be why, despite a strong patriotic rally for the push against Russia, there have been reports of rising numbers of Ukrainians avoiding the draft. Ukraine’s leaders have acknowledged the problem and have pledged to clean up the nation’s military. We can give the Ukrainian government credit for that. Still, after almost 25 years of a near kleptocracy, this could take years. War isn’t helping.

So far, there are no indications that there is any timetable for a potential U.S. arms drop to Ukraine, let alone that the United States in indeed serious about doing so. The State Department could just be testing the waters or trying to scare Russia off from advancing further.

If that’s the case, it’s unlikely that will work either. Have you checked the Russian media lately? The most popular story making the rounds right now (and also the most hilarious example of Russian propaganda) is about Putin being “able to finish NATO with just one phone-call.” Indeed, harsher rhetoric will only help Putin in rallying more domestic support for his agenda, as it will strengthen his claim that the West is interfering in Ukraine.

The Russian leader will undoubtedly use military threats from the West to support his position that NATO countries are aggressors, trying to suffocate Russia by expanding militarily on its border.

There are only two ways to stop Russia’s attempt to control Ukraine by stealth. Strengthen Ukraine by pressuring the government to introduce much-needed reforms. Effective anti-corruption measures need to be introduced now that will make obsolete the remnants of Ukraine’s kleptocracy. General distrust and frustration with crooks on every level of the Ukrainian bureaucracy was one of the main sources of secessionist sentiments in eastern Ukrainian provinces. Russia has exploited this all too well.  At the same time, the West should continue bringing pressure to bear on Russia through its economic sanctions — if it wants to get tougher on Russia, it can always ramp these up.

There are plenty of sensible, and effective, measures the West could support to help the situation. Providing more guns and ammunition in this volatile part of the world is not one of them.

276 comments

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

yes – they will capture and occupy Eastern Ukraine.

Posted by michaelryan | Report as abusive

This sounds like warmed-over Russian propaganda.
It is like telling the Czechs in 1938 to just let the Germans
roll in – somebody might get hurt if you fight back.

Any sovereign country has the right and obligation to defend
its borders and citizenry. Otherwise, there is no sovereignty.

Posted by JoeBrnn | Report as abusive

Bullies are cowards. You don’t need to completely overpower to stop one. Just make his nose really bloody.

Posted by UauS | Report as abusive

This is a reckless proxy-war started by US under the guise of trade/economy with the help of USAID agencies and with some NATO posturing. Eventual losers will be US tax payers that’ll trickle-down to US businesses at some point and local folks of both – Ukraine and Crimea that are caught-up in the conflict. Reflects poorly, on a president that was given a Nobel peace prize.

Posted by Mott | Report as abusive

I seriously dislike the fact that the relevant link with the particular russian media example is missing… Please fix. Also can anyone ID: “Вата ТВ” shown here: http://youtu.be/-KGa9baVh2k ?

Posted by Dru3000 | Report as abusive

Most Ukrainians have at the very least some Russian DNA and have relatives who are Russian. Yes, they do not believe in the old Soviet system, but neither do most of the Russians themselves.

What Ukrainians and Russians want is a living standard similar to that enjoyed in Northern European. The citizens in both counties want to eliminate the massive corruption dominates both Ukrainia and Russia.

However, the citizens of both countries believe that they are looked down upon by the United States as well as most of Europe. They look at both the positive and negative sides of the United States, but resent the “superior” attitudes that they perceive to exist. They believe that Europeans stole the land from the native American Indians, while they fought against the Mongol Hordes that saved the European culture.

The Russians believe that they saved Europe during WWII and that almost 9 million Soviet citizens were killed and/or missing. They also resent the fact that they rejected both the Czars and the Soviet repression. So in effect, they feel that they don’t get credit for throwing off the yoke of the Soviet regime.

George Frost Kennan, author of the United State’s “containment policy” towards the old Soviets, understood Russian culture and believed that they should have the freedom to evolve democratically in their own manner. He also believed that encouraging the Ukraine to join NATO was a serious mistake and did not believe in American hegemony in Europe.

Posted by neilc23 | Report as abusive

Ukraine say that Russian Troops are in their land, how Credible are the Ukrainian people especially there is conflict of interest in deploying the news that helps! So Reuters should use a third party confirmation of what is passes from one side to the World … thanks

Posted by mohamedmohsen | Report as abusive

you cant allow the bully to get away with continued invasion of another country!!

of course there is a military imbalance (duh) and that is why we are called on to assist

sanctions are not working and we are facing another Georgian style invasion

Posted by logic44 | Report as abusive

Having the Crimea under NATO control is the same as having Cuba under Russian control…Wasn’t that what he Cuban Missile Crisis was about?

Why did anyone think Russia wouldn’t be as protective?

Posted by SR37212 | Report as abusive

no way :-( … the Ukrainians want to be occupied only by the US :-) ..

Posted by jufo | Report as abusive

Ukraine got the support from the West for its excessive use of force against the Russian minority in the East of the country at the beginning of the crisis. Now reports of summary killings use of cluster bombs,white phosphorous and grad missiles on civilian targets by the Ukrainian Army and some one still hopes of a peace with Ukrainian territorial integrity? What is the difference between Novorossiya and Kosovo? What if Russia decides to follow the NATO doctrine in the Kosovo war and the whole Ukrainian territory becomes legitimate target?

Posted by Macedonian | Report as abusive

Former VP Cheney’s award from the Bush Beltway was a Gas Pipeline to Europe Code Name,”Athena,” the route was torturous beyond Kazakhstan,through Alexandrov;Frolovo, and Ukraine.Putins response was pure Chess Logic for the price of two bottles of Stoli and a carton of Marlboro’s per Military equipped man he was able to thwart Big oil’s poster Boy’s Cheney and “W,”. Now the placement of Patriot Missile Batteries in Poland was the Spicing that make Soviets smile.Putin can not tolerate any permanent obstacles….. and that is where you come in

Posted by DJSanDiego | Report as abusive

“the occupation of Ukraine is not on the table, at least not yet.”

Putin’s plan is to destroy the Kiev government and leave Ukraine as a failed state. Only then will he move in and occupy, saying to the world that he is “saving” them from all their problems. Putin wants to rebuild the USSR as much as he’s allowed to. It’s up to us to stop him; either in Ukraine or at NATO’s boarders.

Posted by bryanric | Report as abusive

nothing to fear but fear itself. Too much media fear and so called experts (2 from my alma mater NYU university)fear mongering on the dangers of Putin, as if we had to appease him. He is one leader and on the other side there are hundreds of western leaders. Putin needs a “bloody nose” in Ukraine and should be sent on his way; back to Moscow, or a few feet under if necessary.

Posted by thoma | Report as abusive

Actually Russia won’t show itself in Ukraine due to the Budapest Memorandum, which would then require the US and UK to come to its defence.

Posted by marty_CA | Report as abusive

I really don’t know if this article is some kind of propaganda, or indeed the author’s are completely incompetent on the subject.

Increasing number of “Ukrainians” are not responding to the draft, because simply they are not Ukrainians :). Draft letters are mostly sent to South East Ukraine localities with concentrated ethnic Russian, Bulgarian, Tatars and Armenian population. Certainly, these people would not want to risk their lives for a government that firstly forbid using non-Ukrainian language in the country.

Hence, the entire mess involving the “territorial integrity of Ukraine” exists, because the country is not ethnically uniform.

Second. What kind of “reforms” the author is dreaming about when the Kiev government is actually an assembly of several top Ukraine tycoons. They successfully privatized the government, which is exactly the opposite for the idea of public presentation and democracy. That was the Maidan fight for. Now, you expect the same people to “de-privatize” the political power through reforms? It’s hilarious.

Posted by Ananke | Report as abusive

SR37212 wrote: “Having the Crimea under NATO control is the same as having Cuba under Russian control” – well, how about having Crimea under Ukraine control?.. You Russian trolls are pathetic.

Posted by UauS | Report as abusive

A West Point graduate’s assessment of the Ukrainian crisis.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1 41769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine -crisis-is-the-wests-fault

His background:
http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/biograph y.html
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science and the co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982.

John Mearsheimer graduated from West Point in 1970 and then served five years as an officer in the U.S. Air Force. He then started graduate school in political science at Cornell University in 1975. He received his Ph.D. in 1980.

He spent the 1979-1980 academic year as a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, and was a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs from 1980 to 1982. During the 1998-1999 academic year, he was the Whitney H. Shepardson Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Posted by neilc23 | Report as abusive

Why didn’t the author quote words of an Ukrainian general who said that there are no Russian soldiers in E.Ukraine? The author says that Russian journalists confirmed the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine,but in fact, after checking, this data was another fake from the puppet media.

Oh, wait! Lets check who the author is? Well…. “Maxim Eristavi is a co-founder of Hromadske International news-network” As we know, Hromadske is a US-backed Ukranian channel which cooperate with “Russian journalists from TVRain”, creating another reality for Ukrainian citizens. Moreover Hromadske spreads fakes everyday… . Ooppsss.

This article is typical Ukranian propaganda.

Posted by AlexanderN | Report as abusive

Article in Foreign Affairs magazine:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1 41769/john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine -crisis-is-the-wests-fault

Also read:
http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/biograph y.html
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science and the co-director of the Program on International Security Policy at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982.

He graduated from West Point in 1970 and then served five years as an officer in the U.S. Air Force. He then started graduate school in political science at Cornell University in 1975. He received his Ph.D. in 1980.

He spent the 1979-1980 academic year as a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, and was a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs from 1980 to 1982. During the 1998-1999 academic year, he was the Whitney H. Shepardson Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Posted by neilc23 | Report as abusive

I’m not so sure Ukraine needs to match the entire Russia armed forces. Russia has about 130,000 troops on Ukraines borders. Soldiers are not the problem, comms and heavy weapons are.
If they can hold the line, sanctions can do the rest.

Posted by Swedish_chef | Report as abusive

Everything this article said that Putin would do is already happening. If you read Russian news he is telling his people that US is already arming and Nato is fighting with Ukraine. So if you want to communicate with Putin you need to talk his language. Give him both more casualties and more sanctions. The Russians will get tired of totalitarian policies of Putin telling them what they can see and hear in a film and ruining the economy. The majority of the Russians know what is really going on and can tell what is propaganda and what is truth. It is the next generation of propaganda education that will be totally indoctrinated. Hopefully the love the Russians have for their children will motivate them to change course.

Posted by jetter | Report as abusive

challenging the US for world power. I mean.

Posted by americangrizzly | Report as abusive

This opinion has been approved by Vladimir Putin.

Posted by nln | Report as abusive

This is the counsel of despair – playing right into Putin’s aggressive plans. Counter a sneak invasion by trying to abolish corruption? That’s almost laughable. And it ignores Putin’s real goals – the recreation of imperial Russian power and the weakening, and eventual break up, of the European Union. The invasion of Ukraine is just one part of the overall picture. His support of the new Greek government is going to succeed and, for the first time, a nation state will be forced out of the EU. But he is right. Arming the Ukrainians might not achieve anything substantive. It would just enlarge the war and Putin’s importance. What must be created is a much larger and more powerful force, a pan-European army. Then, long term, Putin’s childish and vicious policies would lead to a more coherent, powerful and organized Europe.

Posted by Michael_ES | Report as abusive

“It is also reportedly infiltrated by Russian intelligence. This might be why, despite a strong patriotic rally for the push against Russia, there have been reports of rising numbers of Ukrainians avoiding the draft.”

Utterly pathetic piece of Kiev propaganda. There is mass draft dodging and mass anti-draft rallies in Ukraine – all because of “Russian infiltration”. Certainly not because majority of population don’t support Kiev war on Donbass. Western readers are fed with this of BS, creating absolute parallel reality on Ukraine

Posted by Crusty11 | Report as abusive

It is always funny to read european articles about Russia. Do you really beleive all Russians are so stupid? Your examples of “Russian propaganda” are indeed hilarious (I wonder where is the link? ;)) and are better known in Europe and USA than in Russia.
I can compare current opinion of european citizens on Russia and Russian people with the one you had during the Cold War: bears with balalayka drinking vodka on the street! All your media are saying is very far from the reality. Shame on you guys, the american propaganda and pressure are really effective and you need to realize sooner or later that the EU must obtain their own interests and their own independant position.
And as the answer to this article I would like to finalize: NO, we do not need Eastern Ukraine and we are NOT going to capture it ;)

Posted by Sofyrus | Report as abusive

I am afraid the meaning of Sovereignty and integrity will be twisted in the future.

Posted by gentalman | Report as abusive

The author need not worry the eu and even moreso has been exploiting the same things he complains Russia of exploiting…

Perhaps really the point should be enough with the exploitation by everyone (including themselves).

Posted by StigTW | Report as abusive

Of whomes leaders is the main stream media writing about? Everybody who accepts these miserable politicians as his leaders must be either a masochist or suicidal.

Posted by seafloor | Report as abusive

First the US superpower with its NATO/EU coalition have failed in two wars that have been going on for longer than a decade. Iraq and Afghanistan. The cost of these two forays have cost the United States. 4,487 American lives, 32,223 wounded for Iraqi Operation Freedom, Operation New Dawn another 66 deaths, and 301 wounded. 2343 deaths in Afghanistan, and wounded 17,674. The financial cost is at about $5 Trillion, plus interest borrowed on the War debt is still to be calculated, and Afghanistan isn’t over in lives and cost. With a debt in the US approaching $18 Trillion. Don’t be conned by the EU. Using the US as its muscle.

Posted by americangrizzly | Report as abusive

On other fronts, alliance leaders pressed NATO countries to follow through on commitments to spend 2 percent of their nations’ gross domestic product on defense. Only four NATO nations meet that threshold: the U.S., Britain, Greece and Estonia.
Komorowski said that Poland would raise its defense budget to 2 percent of GDP in 2016 and would encourage other members to increase defense spending as well.
So the other 24 Nations fail in this.
*At present, NATO has 28 members. In 1949, there were 12 founding members of the Alliance: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. The other member countries are: Greece and Turkey (1952), Germany (1955), Spain (1982), the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland (1999), Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2004), and Albania and Croatia (2009).

The United States currently provides about 25 percent of these common-funded budgets, and will continue to do so after the addition of the new members. source NATO

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