As free trade pacts expand, U.S. trade deficit soars. Why add one more?

February 17, 2015
U.S. President Obama, Australian Prime Minister Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Abe meet at the G20 in Brisbane

(L-R) President Barack Obama, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the G20 in Brisbane, November 16, 2014. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

President Barack Obama has called on Congress to grant him fast-track trade authority for his Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement. The administration insists the authority, which would give Congress only an up-or-down vote on the agreement, is needed to get the best possible terms from its trade partners along the Pacific Rim.

During his 2008 presidential campaign, Obama promised to renegotiate and improve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). But it now looks like what he really meant is to expand on that flawed trade model and extend it to other countries.

Twenty-one years after NAFTA and four years after Obama’s 2011 U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, there is abundant data documenting how this trade model has been disastrous for most U.S. businesses, farmers and workers.

Since the pacts were implemented, U.S. trade deficits, which drag down economic growth, have soared more than 430 percent with our free-trade partners. In the same period, they’ve declined 11 percent with countries that are not free-trade partners. Since fast-track trade authority was used to pass NAFTA and the U.S. entrance into the World Trade Organization, the overall annual U.S. trade deficit in goods has more than quadrupled, from $218 billion to $912 billion.

The United States now has an annual $177-billion trade deficit in goods with its 20 free-trade partners. Over the past decade, however, U.S. export growth to countries that are not free-trade partners exceeded the growth of free-trade partners by 24 percent.

U.S. President Barack Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak hold a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House

President Barack Obama (R) and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak in the East Room of the White House, October 13, 2011. REUTERS/Jason Reed

Under NAFTA, small U.S. firms’ share of exports to Canada and Mexico has fallen. Had these businesses not lost their share of exports, they might instead be exporting $13.5 billion more each year to Mexico and Canada.

Nearly 5 million U.S. manufacturing jobs — one in four — have been lost since NAFTA and the various post-NAFTA expansion deals were enacted through fast track. These free-trade agreements have fundamentally transformed the types of jobs and wages available for the 63 percent of all U.S. workers without a college degree.

Three of every five displaced manufacturing workers rehired in 2014 are earning lower wages, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with one-third taking a pay cut greater than 20 percent. As the unemployed manufacturing workers began competing for service-industry jobs that can’t be shipped offshore, such as hospitality and retail, real wages have also fallen in these sectors.

U.S. wages, overall, have barely increased in real terms since 1974 — the year fast track was enacted — even as U.S. worker productivity has doubled.

When asked how U.S. workers will fare against Vietnam’s 58-cents-an-hour average minimum wage, Washington trade officials hide behind the wording of the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s labor chapter. Yet this section only rehashes labor standards that President George W. Bush included in his pacts with Colombia, Panama and Peru, which, according to a new Government Accountability Office report, have failed miserably in improving working conditions in free-trade partner countries.

At the same time, cuts in consumer goods prices have not been enough to offset the losses to middle-class wages under these agreements. U.S. workers without college degrees have lost roughly 12.2 percent of their wages — even after accounting for the benefits of cheaper imported goods. This means less, not more, consumer demand for U.S. manufacturing and service-sector firms.

Obama administration trade officials say that this is old news. They insist their agreements are different.

But Obama’s 2011 trade deal with South Korea, which serves as the template for the new Trans-Pacific Partnership, has resulted in a 50 percent jump in the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea in its first two years. This equates to 50,000 U.S. jobs lost. Small-businesses’ exports to South Korea have also declined sharply, falling 14 percent. In just one month, October 2014, the United States had a $3-billion trade deficit in goods with South Korea, the highest on record.

Recent trade flows, economists widely agree, have been a significant contributor to the historic rise in U.S. income inequality. The only debate is about the degree of trade’s responsibility. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, for one, found that trade accounts for 39 percent of the growth in wage inequality.

This makes it particularly perverse that Obama, who’s announced that his priorities are battling income inequality and creating middle-class jobs, is pushing a Pacific region trade pact that replicates the odious NAFTA terms that favor job offshoring and bans responsible “Buy American” procurement preferences.

It’s no surprise that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce praises Obama’s trade agenda because the chamber mostly represents the interests of the largest multinational firms, while running roughshod over the interests of Main Street chamber members.

But the opposition to Trans-Pacific Partnership and Obama administration trade policies by prominent economists and policymakers who supported past free-trade agreements is notable. Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, who supported NAFTA when he served in the Clinton cabinet, has come out against it, as have pro-free-trade economists such as Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs and Joseph Stiglitz.

Jared Bernstein, Vice President Joe Biden’s former chief economist, has emphasized that without enforceable rules against currency manipulation (a tool other countries can use to unfairly subsidize their exports and undercut U.S. production), the Trans-Pacific Partnership would further increase income inequality and damage U.S. businesses and farmers. Even though 230 representatives and 60 senators now demand currency-manipulation protection in the pact, the White House has refused even to raise the issue.

All this goes a long way to explain why Obama’s quest for fast-track trade authority is facing broad opposition in Congress. This power would irresponsibly empower Obama to sign and enter into the Trans-Pacific Partnership even before Congress votes to approve its terms. It would then guarantee an up-or-down vote within 90 days with only limited debate and amendments forbidden whether or not Congress’ objectives for the pact are met.

What’s inexplicable is why the Obama administration is pushing a trade agenda that so directly undermines the middle-class economic agenda the president says he desires to be his legacy.  The only good news is that broad congressional opposition to fast-track authority may save Obama and his desired legacy from his proposed trade agenda.

238 comments

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/

This article does not look at the whole picture. For example, along with NAFTA, Canada has a huge deficit with America on services. If you subtract Canada’s surplus on trade in goods from Canada’s big deficit on services, America comes out far ahead.

Posted by nose2066 | Report as abusive

BOT includes services and goods. Regardless of Canada, we were still $500,000,000 short in 2014. And the article is directed to the economic health of the ‘middle class’, which we can assume means production workers, not suits. The author is on target. We’ve become a nation of burger flippers and salesmen, consultants and managers.

Posted by aeci | Report as abusive

reply to aeci: You are blaming Canada, when the real problem is imports from China and other low wage countries. Canada has that same problem with imports from China and the Europeans buy even more from China than America does.

And the reason so many products are imported from China is because Corporate America has shifted their production to China. Apple Inc for example, makes all those popular iPhones, iPads, iPods etc in China. Nothing to do with trade agreements. Everything to do with American executives deciding to source their products in low wage countries.

Posted by nose2066 | Report as abusive

It is untrue that trade (goods and services) drags down the U.S. economy. America enjoys a capital account surplus which allows its consumers to purchase these goods and services. There is clearly a symbiotic relationship between American consumers (borrowers) and China (creditor). Beijing’s export-led economy depends on Western consumerism. American consumers also depends on cheap labor to feed their materialistic taste.

The loss of manufacturing jobs is due to lack competitiveness and high labor cost in the OECD, which pushed many companies abroad. Even though most R&D are done in the West, the supply chain is expanded across several region to maintain low cost and maximize shareholder profits. Plus, businesses respond to consumer demand for low price products. So, this idea that more trade deals is bad for American consumers is hogwash. Jared Bernstein and his friends at the Peterson Institute are wrong to advocate for the inclusion of currency manipulation in the TPP. Growing U.S trade deficits are not solely due to currency misalignment.

Central banks implement different dovish and hawkish monetary policies for several reasons. There is no need for another Plaza Accord, that’s for certain.

Posted by Kinois | Report as abusive

Well, let’s hope that this trade agreement will be a two-way one, not designed for the sole interest of the United States.

John – http://techworld.blog.lemonde.fr/

Posted by Don_Jon | Report as abusive

Freedom and liberty were what built America and now the plan by the worlds bankers is to end freedom and liberty and return things to their normal state which is a type of royalty who rule through dictatorships. The destruction of the US is the key to this new world order. The federal reserve and the fascist secret police and the brainwash media have been working slowing since 1913 to bring about the rule of the wealthy owners. It’s working too, since so many are so easily brainwashed. Let us stop pretending that our elected officials work for us. They work for their corporate masters. There will be no freedom or liberty and the people who support either the GOP or the DFL have helped to cause this failure and decay. The trade agreements are typically in favor of US corporations, and mostly allow them to move manufacturing to low cost regions.

Posted by brotherkenny4 | Report as abusive

Bring back import tariffs. America was built on them. As soon as you stop having trade wars, you end up having real wars. Trade wars are much better. It’s called competition.

Posted by AlkalineState | Report as abusive

While trade deficits and surpluses are not really an accurate measure of successful trade relations, trade critics like to point to trade deficits as the reason for their rejection of new trade agreements; even when there are no deficits in fact. Contrary to the numbers touted in this piece, the United States has a manufacturing trade surplus with our 20 free trade agreement partners, who purchase 13 times more from the United States than other countries. Check out the facts in my blog: http://www.shopfloor.org/2015/02/facts-m atter-critics-need-to-stop-distorting-th e-facts-on-americas-manufacturing-trade- surplus/33183. And read the NAM’s new TPA report to find out the facts about trade agreements like NAFTA. http://www.nam.org/TradingUp/

Posted by LindaDempsey | Report as abusive

Linda Dempsey explains: “trade critics like to point to trade deficits as the reason for their rejection of new trade agreements; even when there are no deficits in fact.”

Yes, and when you lose a football game, you have not lost in FACT. You had a great time and everyone involved gets a trophy. Barf.

Posted by AlkalineState | Report as abusive

It’s 2015 and people are talking about doubling down on tariffs….

Posted by jambrytay | Report as abusive

“It’s 2015 and people are talking about doubling down on tariffs….”

Works for China. They charge us 20%, we charge them 2%.

Why would anyone in America NOT be talking about doubling down on tariffs. Our country was built on tariffs. The revenue you get from tariffs, you don’t have to get from income tax.

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