Why Donald Trump’s hostile takeover bid for the Republican Party is a loser

August 6, 2015
Potential Republican 2016 presidential candidate Trump speaks at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua, New Hampshire, April 18, 2015. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

There is only one way Donald Trump can win the Republican presidential nomination next year. It’s something he’s familiar with from his big business career. It’s called a hostile takeover.

Trump’s supporters will have to beat the Republican Party establishment into submission.

Wait a minute. Isn’t Trump the frontrunner for the Republican nomination going into the first debate? Yes. But he’s only got the support of a quarter of rank-and-file Republican voters. Nearly one-third of Republicans say they could not vote for Trump.

Trump is winning the Tea Party base of the GOP. They’re activist and they’re influential. But the Republican establishment looks at the Tea Party movement with deep suspicion. After all, outlandish Tea Party candidates kept the Republican Party from winning a Senate majority in 2010: Christine O’Donnell in Delaware (“I’m not a witch”), Sharron Angle in Nevada (unemployed Americans are “spoiled”), Ken Buck in Colorado (ban all abortions, including those for victims of rape and incest).

Tea Party nominees cost Republicans two more Senate seats in 2012: Todd Akin in Missouri (“legitimate rape” cannot result in pregnancy) and Richard Mourdock in Indiana (pregnancy as a result of rape is “something God intended to happen”).

Trump has said more than his share of outrageous things: “Barack Obama’s birth certificate is a fraud,” “Mexico is sending people who have lots of problems [including] drugs and being rapists,” Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is not a war hero (“I like people who weren’t captured, OK?”).

Trump horrifies the Republican Party establishment. Its business is to win elections and it knows he can’t get elected president. Polls show Trump doing worse than any other potential Republican nominee against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Nonetheless, Trump’s support among Tea Party conservatives has continued to grow. That’s because the Tea Party is at war, not just with Obama and the Democrats, but also with the Republican Party establishment — which they claim has betrayed the conservative cause for the sake of governing.

Conservatives have always nurtured a keen sense of betrayal. In the 1950s, Senator Joseph McCarthy took on the Republican Party establishment for betraying the conservative cause. McCarthy saw communist infiltration in Washington. Trump just sees stupidity: “Our leaders are stupid, they are stupid people.” As opposed to himself: “`I’m, like, a really smart person.”

Trump has several sources of support that could pay off for him in next year’s Republican primaries. One is Tea Party conservatives. Another is celebrity worshipers. They love Trump because he’s rich and famous. A third is angry anti-Washington populists. They like Trump because he’s not a politician. He says exactly what he thinks, consequences be damned. Like his attacks on illegal immigrants, which have deeply offended Latino voters and derailed Republican plans for outreach.

A coalition of Tea Party conservatives, celebrity followers and angry anti-Washington voters could flood the Republican primaries next year, assuming Trump doesn’t self-destruct before then. (Never a good bet.)

The coalition would include a lot of people who have never voted in Republican primaries before. They may not even be Republicans or conservatives. Just Trump followers — plus people who want to shake things up.

What could make the Trump coalition especially dangerous is that the Republican establishment doesn’t seem to have a strong contender.  Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is not exactly catching fire on the campaign trail. Trump is outpolling Bush nearly two to one for the Republican nomination.

Bush has a poor brand name — especially among conservatives who hated his father and lost confidence in his brother. Even the Republican establishment is dismayed by Bush’s repeated stumbles. Like when he could not seem to decide whether he supported the Iraq invasion or whether the federal government spends too much money on “women’s health issues.”

For the Republican establishment to rally the party to stop Trump, it would have to be clear that Bush would beat Clinton and Trump would not. That’s not clear yet.

But don’t Trump’s followers care about winning? Maybe not so much. They may care more about making a statement.

Trump’s people are not political professionals or committed Republican partisans. They may not believe it makes much difference whether Bush or Clinton gets elected. Both Bush and Clinton are deeply embedded in the political establishment.

If Trump’s hostile takeover looks like it’s going to succeed, it would split the Republican Party. A lot of Republican leaders would refuse to support him.

What if it looks like the Republican establishment is going to stop Trump and deny him the nomination? Trump refuses to rule out running for president as an independent.

Would he be able to put together an organization and get on the ballot in enough states to do that? He certainly has enough money to do it. “I’m really rich,” he said, setting his personal fortune at $10 billion. But state ballot rules are complicated. He would have to start organizing soon.

Suppose Trump gets the Republican nomination. Or suppose he runs as an independent.

Either way, the 2016 Republican nomination wouldn’t be worth anything.


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Reuters has their head in the sand, while a tsunami of support builds behind Donald Trump. The weak and owned politicians on both sides of the aisle will never do what is necessary to turn around American’s steep decline into a third world country. Trump will make America great again!

Posted by HappyHuntress | Report as abusive

Bill Schneider: ‘Suppose Trump gets the Republican nomination. Or suppose he runs as an independent. Either way, the 2016 Republican nomination wouldn’t be worth anything.’

Bill you are right. If Trump runs as an independent: ‘the 2016 Republican nomination wouldn’t be worth anything.’

But you are totally wrong in case Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination.

He is only one who can beat Hillary Clinton (also as an independent), because like Bush and the other Republicans except Rand Paul, she represents the elite-US-Establishment. And the American voters are just sick of these self-serving elitists, their warmongering and disregard of the needs of ordinary people. They long for a realist, a pragmatist with strategic views that benefits not only the elite but everybody. Donald Trump embodies this, also in his foreign policy views.

That is why Donald Trump will win the Presidential election in 2016, even the fact that the US-elite and the main stream media despise him.

Posted by Martinus1959 | Report as abusive

It’s a no-go if the VOTERS say so, not you.

We’re done with weak willed politically correct losers who bend over for illegal aliens and racist hate groups like La Raza.

Posted by LetBalanceCome | Report as abusive

Trump is the biggest distraction this election season. It’s clear that white privilege is nearly dead, and Trump’s elitist ministrations will stir up the worst of the worst in the GOP. Then, when the party has narrowed the group to only those willing to carry out their plans, Trump will fall by the wayside once again. There is no way he will ever win the election. So there is no way he will ever be the GOP candidate.

Posted by PapaAB | Report as abusive

You probably said Trump would never run, would never show is financials, never lead in the poles…

Posted by douglas1978 | Report as abusive

Hiring illegal workers helps to create an excess pool of labor, suppresses wages, allows poor working conditions and a fear based job environment, enriches the illegal worker’s country of origin, diminishes our economy and our standard of living, makes the rich richer, the poor poorer, and increases the gap between the 99% and the 1%. Don’t believe they are only doing the jobs we won’t do. We are Americans. We will do any job.

Posted by Nogoodchoice | Report as abusive

“Bush has a poor brand name — especially among conservatives who hated his father and lost confidence in his brother.”

One honest sentence in the entire article. So what is the point and who pays to generate your point of view?

Posted by corruptedmedia | Report as abusive

It is not just the Republican “establishment” that dislikes Trump. Donald Trump is a caricature of every stereotype liberals have of republicans. He’s batting 1000. No one is that perfectly stereotypical unless they are acting. Trump is putting on the show of his life. The question is why?

Posted by christhomas | Report as abusive

christhomas wrote: “No one is that perfectly stereotypical unless they are acting. Trump is putting on the show of his life. The question is why?” Excellent question.

If Trump is “like, really smart” then he knows he’s either:

a) getting a tremendous amount of media attention, which will ultimately put money in his pocket and a small paragraph in a small history book, and/or

b) is a closet Democrat, because this will most definitely split Republicans.

If he’s like, really stupid, then he thinks he actually has a shot at being POTUS.

Posted by JL4 | Report as abusive

You Pundits and Opinionaters are wrong.. Trump is here to stay and there’s a whole lot more supporters for Trump than you think. Everyone I speak to laughed at first, but It’s now becoming a movement. Keep watching…

Posted by terracares9 | Report as abusive

I agree with Trump that political correctness has gone wrong.
I hope he wins because you should be able to speak up without getting creative with words and sentences, and coming up with gobbledegook.

Posted by DingosBreakfast | Report as abusive


Posted by rachelrc1 | Report as abusive

They want Trump gone so badly….I think they are going t0 cry.

Posted by 000008 | Report as abusive

Following the debate…Time magazine found that Mr. Trump took 47% of nearly 55,000 votes. Sen. Rubio was in second place with just 10%. A Drudge Report poll found more than half of nearly 362,000 voters favored Mr. Trump, putting him well ahead of the other candidates. Mr. Trump dominated the twitter feed as well.

Posted by Grease | Report as abusive

The crux of Trump’s campaign is to join with people who are frustrated with the two parties performance.Not only two parties have friction with each other but both party members have friction with one another among them.That situation does not seem to have improved even while they express their choice for the presidential candidate.He plainly says he is not a politician and that concept people like.Moreover what he believes he stick to that steadfastly.In fact he is a revolutionary and today’s divisive politics will not change unless there is some kind of revolution.I am sure even if is he would stand as an independent,he will have supporters in the same numbers.
He will have also advantage of sharp divisions among democratic party about the choice of presidential candidate,which yet to come on the surface.Current national issues are so simple and easy to handle but politicians and their lobbies have made them unnecessary complicate like health care,abortion,immigrants etc.They are the created problems unnecessarily.They were not a priority if one see more important problems like racial problem,security,natural calamities,climate control etc.Even foreign policy problems are also created ones by becoming policeman for other countries.One can not imagine how much the government has invested for Israel,Pakistan,Iraq an what not?!

Posted by gentalman | Report as abusive

Trump may have self interest or aspiration for the position but unknowingly or knowingly his approach is right to correct the divisive politics and the waste of tax payers money and to regain original image of the country.

Posted by gentalman | Report as abusive

the Tea Party HATES Trump

Trump is supported by blue collar Democrats

Posted by BiffTannen007 | Report as abusive