The Great Debate

What the shipping market tells us about the air freight and export market

By J Saft
July 13, 2010

An interesting contrast is shaping up in global trade, where some indicators of the movement of raw materials are crashing even as exports from China and air traffic continue to show outstanding strength.

Stress tests and cargo cults

By J Saft
July 8, 2010

How are European officials orchestrating the bank stress tests like Pacific islanders speaking into coconuts and waiting for cargo to drop from the skies?

Inflation or Deflation, why settle for just one?

By J Saft
July 1, 2010

If you are trying to decide whether to fret about inflation or deflation, don’t bother: you may just get both.

The $5 trillion rollover

By J Saft
June 29, 2010

Banks around the world must refinance more than $5 trillion of debts in the coming three years, a massive rollover that poses threats to financial stability and growth.

China move like history in slow-motion

By J Saft
June 22, 2010

Asked about 175 years after the fact what he made of the French Revolution, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai is said to have thought for a moment and concluded: “It is too soon to tell.”

Euro woes increase risk of trade wars

By J Saft
May 20, 2010

Europe won’t just be exporting deflation to the rest of the world, it will export serious trade tensions as well: first between the United States and China, and, possibly, eventually between Europe and the United States.

Dollar favorite in glue factory derby

By J Saft
May 6, 2010

The dollar may hang by the slender thread of the U.S. recovery, but this is probably enough to make it the major currency of choice.

Eerie calm before Britain’s election

By J Saft
May 4, 2010

To look at sterling and gilts, you would hardly know that Britain is sailing into a general election which will likely deliver a weaker government with a diminished ability, if not will, to grapple with high debts, an uncertain role in the global economy and an aging population.

Europe shambles as Greek fire spreads

By J Saft
April 29, 2010

Europe desperately needs to get out in front of its solvency problem, Greek edition; not because it is right, not even because it will work in the long term, but to stem rapid and costly contagion through financial markets to other weak links in the euro zone, not least to banks.