The Great Debate

Deflation pressure not just from housing

By J Saft
April 8, 2010

It will take more than a recovery in housing to reignite inflation in the U.S. economy, a state of play that argues for the continued threat of deflation and a Federal Reserve that is pinned to the mat, unable, even if willing, to raise interest rates.

Nice job, pity about falling wages

By J Saft
April 6, 2010

It was the strongest U.S. employment report in three years and yet just beneath the surface was plenty of evidence that inflation pressure from the labor market is more of a fond hope than a real threat.

The Age of Frugality takes a holiday

By J Saft
April 1, 2010

That whole Age of Frugality thing didn’t last long, did it?

U.S. real personal consumption grew in February at a respectable 0.3 percent clip, the fifth straight such monthly rise, a fact widely greeted as news that the recovery is on course. The fly in this tasty soup, however, is income, which in real terms didn’t increase at all, not even by one tenth of a percent.

from James Saft:

Learning from Ken Feinberg

By J Saft
March 25, 2010

Sometimes it's what doesn't happen that is most illuminating.

When Pay Czar Kenneth Feinberg first slashed executive compensation at U.S. firms that benefited most from a government bailout the cry was that this would hurt these weakened firms when they could least afford it, as the best and brightest would leave for better money elsewhere, where the free market still ruled.

China tightening could undo risk markets

By J Saft
December 24, 2009

saft2.jpgThe key decision for global markets in 2010 will very likely not be made in Washington but Beijing, where emerging inflation and a property bubble may push China to begin reining in expansionary policies earlier than will suit the developed world.

Can recovery and credit crunch coexist?

By J Saft
November 12, 2009

jamessaft1.jpg(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

New studies from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank show that, whatever else, a recovery in the economy is not being supported by a resumption in bank lending, raising concerns about how exactly growth will become self-sustaining when official stimulus ebbs.

The death of the “punchbowl” metaphor

By J Saft
October 29, 2009

jamessaft1.jpg (James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Don’t expect the year-long rally in risky assets to be undermined any time soon by the Federal Reserve becoming concerned about inflation.

Time for a shareholder revolt

By J Saft
October 27, 2009

jamessaft1(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

There are encouraging signs that shareholders are becoming more assertive in defending their interests.

An unhealthy privilege

By J Saft
September 29, 2009

jamessaft1–James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.–

Sit back and enjoy the Kabuki trade show

By J Saft
September 15, 2009

jamessaft1.jpg–James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.–