An interesting contrast is shaping up in global trade, where some indicators of the movement of raw materials are crashing even as exports from China and air traffic continue to show outstanding strength.
Depending on your reading of the data you could decide that the threat of a double-dip recession is overblown or, perhaps more simply, not a threat but a promise.
First, the good news, at least if you are exposed to Chinese exporters. China said last week that export sales rose a stunning 43.9 percent in June from the year before, taking the trade surplus to $20 billion, its highest in eight months.
Exports to the European Union and the U.S. both rose by 40 percent in the month, somewhat confounding concerns about Europe’s woes and the ongoing effects of a weak and jobless recovery in America.
Exports to faster-growing emerging markets were even stronger: up 84 percent to Russia and 59 percent to India.
