June 26th, 2009

Michael Jackson’s troubled financial legacy

Posted by: Alexander Smith

Alexander Smith– Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Michael Jackson’s will is bound to be as bizarre as the rest of the singer’s turbulent life. But one thing is for sure, the arguments over his deeply flawed financial legacy will keep lawyers busy for years.

Top of the list will be sorting out Jackson’s sell-out comeback tour, which was due to kick off next month. There are bound to be losses, insurance claims and the prospect of an empty London O2 Arena for 50 nights during the peak summer period.

Music industry bible Billboard reckons promoter AEG Live could lose as much as $40 million if its insurance is insufficient to cover what has already been spent on the production. That’s assuming they have to give refunds to the 750,000 fans who have paid big money for tickets. And that doesn’t count the cost of hotel reservations and flights from across the world.

Then there’s the small issue of the $500 million in debts that Jackson is reported to have left behind.

Bizarrely, Sir Paul McCartney, the super-rich former Beatle, could be one of the beneficiaries of Jackson’s will. Reports earlier this year said Jackson had left McCartney his stake in the Beatles’ song catalogue. But given that this share already has a $200 million loan secured against it, there could be a few court hearings before the former Beatle gets the songs back in his own collection.

Some estimate that Jackson’s top assets, including copyrights to his own songs and the Beatles song catalogue stake, are worth more than $1 billion.

No doubt Jackson’s family, his creditors, and partners such as Los Angeles-based real estate investment trust Colony Capital LLC and music catalogue joint venture partner Sony Corp, will all be laying claim to some of these assets.

The self-styled King of Pop’s music will live on in his recordings, but its a fair bet that the legacy of his high-spending lifestyle will be around for a good few years too.

– At the time of publication Alexander Smith did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.–

June 26th, 2009

Fee bonanza spells more trouble for banks

Posted by: Alexander Smith

Alex Smith-GreatDebate– Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

Investment banks are going to have a lot of explaining to do. After the lows of 2008, and despite the mauling they’ve had from politicians and the public, 2009 is going to be a bumper year for those that lived to tell the tale. The banks have pocketed an incredible $16 billion in fees in the second quarter, according to Thomson Reuters first half data on deals and fee income, released on Friday. Click here for related news.

True, this is down from Q2 2008, when fees were almost $24 billion. But it should not come as a surprise to anyone who has been watching — often in disbelief — the huge amount of capital raising that has been going on in both the equity and bond markets.

Take the bond markets, where total first-half issuance — excluding financials — has already reached $598 billion, outstripping previous records for an entire year. If anyone pretends it has been tough selling these bonds, don’t believe them. The sales teams have been pushing at an open door, with fund managers buying anything they could get their hands on. The fees are good and so far this year, the risk has been limited.

The ones to suffer have been the loan desks, with syndicated lending hitting a 13-year low. But since this market has always been seen as a loss-leader to help sell other products, there are probably fewer tears being shed at the top of the banks involved.

The real star of the show, however, has been equity capital markets. Traditionally the poor cousins to the sexier and higher profile “rainmakers” in mergers and acquisitions, ECM desks have raked in underwriting fees of $7.6 billion in Q2 alone, almost half the industry total. As with bond issues, lead managing or underwriting such deals does carry a risk, but so far this year that has been limited as shareholders have lapped up the rights issues.

There’s no denying that many companies badly needed capital and that the banks have the expertise to get these deals done. The question that will increasingly be asked is whether the fee structure can still be justified. True, rights issues can fail, as underwriters of the 4 billion pound offering by British bank HBOS last year no doubt recall. But with banks charging bigger fees and pricing offerings at larger discounts, the rewards currently outweigh the risks.

One area of investment banking which is still in the doldrums is M&A, despite the best efforts of some of the brightest minds in the game to get dealmaking back on track.

The Thomson Reuters data shows global M&A revenues declined for a third consecutive quarter, with fees on completed deals down some 66 percent on the same period last year at just $3 billion. M&A activity — measured by the value of deals done — is down almost 45 percent so far this year, the lowest figure since 2003 and the sharpest fall since 2001. Click here for related news.

Of course, it is possible that these big fees will be wiped out by continued losses on the toxic assets that some investment banks still have on their balance sheets. But for an industry that was teetering on the brink last autumn, investment banking appears in rude health. With a second backlash already beginning as salaries rise and bonuses come back into fashion, the big investment banks — particularly those which still owe taxpayers money or government shareholders — will need to make sure their lines are well rehearsed.

– At the time of publication Alexander Smith did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.–

May 26th, 2009

Time for fund managers to act

Posted by: Alexander Smith

Alex Smith-GreatDebate– Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

It is time for shareholders to start behaving like the owners of listed companies rather than appearing as hapless bystanders as corporate disasters unfold around them.

In the U.S., the SEC move to allow institutional investors to nominate directors is a small but welcome step in the right direction. To some degree it echoes existing arrangements in Sweden, where shareholders already play a greater role in nominating and approving directors.

But a more fundamental power shift in favor of the owners of publicly quoted companies is urgently needed and the big question is whether institutional investors, chastened by the huge hits they’ve taken as their investments in companies have crumbled, have got the will and the wherewithal to redefine their relationship with the firms they own.

If past performance is any indication of future performance — which thankfully as fund managers’ disclaimers remind us, it is not — the omens are not good.

It is company managers, particularly of failed financial institutions, who have largely and justifiably taken the rap for poor decision making, some shoddy examples of corporate governance, a few cases of unbelievable greed and an underlying short-term outlook.

But where were the investors all this time?

With a few exceptions — most notably “activist” investors like Knight Vinke’s campaign against HSBC’s disastrous investment in U.S. consumer lending unit Household, the attempt by Luqman Arnold’s Olivant to shake up UBS and Legal and General’s call for changes at Royal Bank of Scotland — they were barely seen or heard.

Given that, it is hard to see how institutions have anybody but themselves to blame for ending up the losers.

Both Knight Vinke and Olivant had valid points, although their ideas and modus operandi were scorned by other investors and resisted by the managers whose cages they were rattling.

GET A GRIP

So just why is it that institutional investors have failed to get a grip on the seemingly out-of-control chief executives whose grandiose plans or blind ambition have led to the demise or near collapse of companies?

The simple answer is that long-only funds (those which do not sell stocks “short”) have been historically reluctant to interfere in the running of the companies whose shares they hold, deeming it to be outside their remit. Their line is that they are in for the long term and not there to manage companies.

Indeed, Robert Jenkins, the head of UK fund industry lobby the Investment Management Association (IMA), has argued that funds have been more active than have been given credit for, although at the end of the day it is not up to fund managers but clients to decide how their money should be managed.

Sure, investors should also be keeping their fund managers under close scrutiny. But they expect investment managers to be doing just that, managing their money. And however unpleasant it may be for fund managers, that means getting their hands dirty.

Until now the default position for funds has been the occasional polite letter to senior executives, relatively infrequent meetings and in extreme (and rare) cases voting against the reappointment of executives or the remuneration packages offered.

Whatever the fund management industry may say, the fact is that except for some smaller “active” funds (who like to distinguish their tactics from their more aggressive “activist” brethren and whose field of interest is often smaller companies), useful engagement with companies by institutional shareholders has been the exception rather than the rule.

GET ACTIVE

For this to change the big funds need to take a leaf out of the active investors’ book. If their mandates — such as the index trackers — mean they are not able to vote with their feet and sell their shares then they need to be willing to “go public” and raise issues of concern early if they feel these are being ignored or stonewalled by management.

This is highlighted in the IMA’s own report on engagement. It found that while more investment managers were engaging with companies their concerns were generally ignored. The industry, at least in the UK, is opposed to regulators imposing rules dictating how they should engage with the boards of the companies they own.

But so far at least, it has failed to provide convincing evidence of how it will do it on its own.

As well as using their votes and learning to team up with other shareholders (this is a point regulators need to take on board to ensure that the rules about acting in concert are sufficiently flexible) if their concerns are being brushed aside, institutional shareholders need to think whether they have got the right mix of experience among their managers.

Active and activist managers say their advantage is they often have real business experience, arguing that this is something lacking among managers in the wider industry.

Funds that focus on corporate governance also point to the resource they devote to covering a company. They tend to dedicate their fire on a handful of companies with a single issue. They argue that the ratios within the large fund management companies are never going to be significant enough for the managers to devote sufficient time to active engagement.

The good news is that the fund management industry has woken up to the failings of the past. The bad news is that the major shake-up of attitudes required to change the way funds operate and for them to openly challenge company management is likely to be too late for many of their investments.

– At the time of publication Alexander Smith did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund. –

May 18th, 2009

Piech must decide which car he’s driving

Posted by: Alexander Smith

Alex Smith-GreatDebate– Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Ferdinand Piech needs to decide whether he’s driving a Porsche, Cayenne or a VW Touareg. The Volkswagen chairman and part owner of Porsche cannot continue to drive both. He should step down as chairman and hand VW CEO Martin Winterkorn the wheel to negotiate any merger talks between the two carmakers.

Piech’s shareholding in the Porsche holding company leaves him hopelessly conflicted. However hard he tries to balance his responsibilities, Piech is always going to be left open to accusations of double dealing and almost certainly to legal challenges by minority shareholders should a deal be struck.

While the companies can’t even agree at the moment whether they are in talks or not, what is clear is that Porsche is in a real hole after its failed takeover attempt of VW left it with a 51 percent stake but 9 billion euros in debt.

Porsche is probably right about the industrial logic for a merger, but it has been in denial about the depth of its problems and therefore the strength of its negotiating position.

VW CEO Winterkorn has rightly highlighted this in a VW memo leaked over the weekend in which he calls for “full transparency” about Porsche’s financial situation — bizarre given that Piech is a Porsche board member and must know.

Winterkorn should not return to the negotiating table without Porsche fully opening its books. He owes it to VW’s minority shareholders, its workers and 20 percent shareholder Lower Saxony not to entertain a deal which would jeopardise their positions.

Porsche needs to resolve not only a huge debt burden, but also falling sales and the quandary of what to do with options on another 20 percent of VW shares. Last but not least, the Porsche and Piech families which control the company appear at odds on what is the best way to secure the company’s future.

A merger with VW looks like an “honourable” way out, but one that is fraught with difficulties in keeping all the interested parties happy. Piech is not shy about own his views. He was vocal in his criticism of Porsche’s top management team last week, adding that VW had no intention of taking on Porsche’s debt or the risks associated with its options positions in VW.

But his own fortune — his family stake is worth around 1.8 billion euros — and the future of the firm established by his grandfather Ferdinand Porsche depend on a deal being struck.

There is no real way for Piech to reconcile these competing demands. It would be best for shareholders in both companies for him to trade in the Touareg for the Cayenne.

– At the time of publication Alexander Smith did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund. –

February 11th, 2009

Bankers can’t kick the sporting habit

Posted by: Alexander Smith

Alex Smith– Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

People are up in arms about bankers receiving bonuses when the banks they worked for have gone down the pan. But isn’t it just as shocking that so many state-backed financial firms still subsidize the eye-popping wages of sporting superstars through rich sponsorship deals?

It’s the same story on both sides of the Atlantic. Citigroup, which received $45 billion from the U.S. government, is sticking with a $400 million marketing deal from 2006 which includes the naming rights for the new home of the New York Mets baseball team, which will be called Citi Field.

Meanwhile Royal Bank of Scotland announced it had renewed its sponsorship of the 6 Nations rugby competition last month, only 10 days after reporting the biggest loss in British corporate history. And it continues to sponsor the Williams Formula 1 team, a sport known for eating up tens of millions a year.

There is indeed a strange correlation between failed companies and sporting sponsorships.
Manchester United sponsor American International Group (AIG), Newcastle United supporter Northern Rock and failed British bank Bradford & Bingley, which sponsored not one but two soccer clubs, Bradford City FC and Barnet FC, have all crashed spectacularly since during the credit crisis.

And it isn’t just financial firms which have run into trouble and seen their names stripped from team shirts and hoardings. English premier league club West Ham United lost their sponsor when tour operator XL Leisure Group folded.

But this shouldn’t really be a big surprise. Some have even made a direct link between sporting sponsorship and corporate underperformance. A recent report by U.S. fund advisory firm Advisor Perspectives crunched the numbers for U.S. companies that entered into so-called “naming rights agreements” and believes it has established a statistical connection.

Its study of 69 U.S. naming deals shows the performance of companies that purchase such rights trails the S&P 500 index by 4.7 percent over the course of the deal. If you invested in a company the day it announced a naming agreement and sold when the agreement was done (or still held onto it for current name holders), your portfolio would be down 9.1 percent, versus a fall of 4.5 percent for the S&P 500.

Advisor Perspectives argues that poor corporate governance, leading to risky or bad decisions on capital allocation, is to blame for this underperformance and points out that three of the top five largest bankruptcies in history, Worldcom, Enron and Conseco all sponsored major U.S. sports venues.

They also point the finger at executives who benefit from the luxury boxes, hospitality packages and privileged access to sporting celebrities, all at the expense of shareholders.

So when Royal Bank of Scotland struck its Formula 1 deal with the Williams team, Citigroup signed its Mets deal or AIG paid to have its name on the shirt of the world’s most successful soccer team

Manchester United, investors should have read these as clear sell signals for the stock.

Given the financial wall some of the banks have hit it is puzzling why they haven’t pulled the plug on these embarrassing deals. After all the CEOs of RBS, Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley have all been jettisoned, as have the bosses of Citigroup and AIG.

But with some lengthy sports sponsorship deals, ending them would in most cases be counterproductive, wiping out any value left. And where banks have been nationalized, political factors come into play. In the case of Newcastle United, any damage caused by ending the sponsorship agreement with Northern Rock and alienating a fiercely loyal soccer fan base would have far outweighed the cost savings of scrapping the deal.

So for an early warning signal of a company with a vain or out-of-control CEO, a poor record of capital allocation, a likely share price underperformance and in the worst case scenario an above average chance of going bust, look no further than the big sports signings, not of players but of sponsors.

– At the time of publication Alexander Smith did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund. –