By Don Tapscott
The opinions expressed are his own.
One thing pundits rarely do is review their own prognostications. A year ago I published “10 big themes for 2011” – related to how the digital revolution changes business and society. It’s helpful to review what actually occurred. Below are my projections and some 20-20 hindsight editorializing.
1. “The crisis deepens. Rather than just an economic downturn, more people will recognize that we’re entering an era of profound change. The industrial economy and many of its institutions are reaching the end of their lifecycles — from newspapers and old models of financial services to our energy grid, transportation systems and institutions for global cooperation and problem solving.”
What happened? I think I called that one. A year ago many were saying that we had come out of the global slump and that we were in full recovery, even if it was a “jobless” one. I detest the term “jobless recovery” as an oxymoron. There is no recovery unless it’s inclusive. As the for global crisis, anyone want to debate with me that it’s getting deeper and that we need to rebuild most institutions and industries, like, say, government?
2. “We’ve entered a new period of Global Risks. We are moving into an age where profound threats are emerging to the global economy, society and even the very existence of humanity. Failure of the financial system, weapons of mass destruction, new communicable diseases, collapse of environmental systems, water security and many other threats make the world a volatile place. Leaders unite to build a Global Risk Response System.”
What happened? Possible overstatement. But consider the sovereign debt crisis, America losing its triple A rating, how the Japanese tsunami disrupted the global supply chain, the destabilization of (nuclear power) Pakistan, Iran’s steps towards nuclear weapons and the deepening crisis regarding Israel’s relationship with the Arab world — and a “Global Risk Response System” sounds like a good idea.