Right about now a massive demographic shift is getting under way which will put substantial downward pressure on house and stock prices, perhaps suppressing global asset prices by one percent a year.
This is going to complicate the response to a series of thorny outstanding problems. Less buoyant asset markets will make it that much harder to work out from under a massive overhang of debt in many advanced economies. It will also put retirement plans in a vise, as more would-be retirees find the assets they had hoped to live off of in old age are not worth enough.
That means longer working lives but also higher savings, which may, you guessed it, hit consumption, company profits and give stock and other asset prices another shove lower.
And, if you believe that the sharply rising house and stock prices of the last generation were in part a social phenomenon, then look out for the opposite, as stocks and houses get a bad name as they suffer from a series of unfortunate effects.
A new Bank for International Settlements working paper by economist Elod Takats looks at the interaction of demographics and asset prices and finds not a meltdown but a long hard slog for house prices and, by extension, for other assets like stocks.