Opinion

The Great Debate

Position fatigue prompting short-term dollar rethink

– Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The opinions expressed are his own –

Dollar bears have been disappointed by the G20.

Talk of re-balancing remained just talk; the bears can discern nothing substantial. Some risk is being taken off and dollars bought back selectively. While the dollar’s general downtrend is intact, there are risks of a temporary reversal, with some seeing the euro temporarily back to $1.4500/50.

Traders can contrast G20 with the Plaza Accord in 1985 which was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker’s persistence. But he only had to convince four peers. G20 is and will be a different story. Dealing with the G20 must be like herding cats.

Disappointment over G20 has come at an inauspicious moment. Extensive short dollar foreign exchange positions have been underpinned by the unparalleled provision of dollar liquidity by the world’s central banks.

The market has used that dollar liquidity to fund purchases of other currencies and assets. Currency speculators raised their bets against the dollar in the latest week to the most since March, 2008, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed.

Getting ready for the dollar’s fall

Agnes Crane It just won’t go away, this needling worry about the U.S. dollar losing its coveted top-dog status.

No matter that there are plenty of reasonable arguments to support the dollar as the world reserve currency — namely there’s just no alternative — for perhaps decades to come.

Yet, in a world where once-rock-solid assumptions quickly turn to dust, investors should keep an eye on the dollar since changing perceptions are chipping away at its cherished status as currency to the world.

Get ready for the “Great Immoderation”

James Saft Great Debate – James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

The recession will soon be dead, laid to rest alongside the idea of the “Great Moderation”, a set of hopeful assumptions that underpins expectations about economic growth and asset valuations.

This, when investors, bankers and executives ultimately realise it will cause them to pull in their horns, take less risks and be less willing to pay high prices for assets.

Uncertain Fed support sinks bonds

John Kemp Great Debate– John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

The bond market’s adverse reaction after the Fed announced no new asset purchase facilities or bond buyback programs highlights the fundamental difference between interest rates and quantitative easing (QE).

Rate cuts provide ongoing support for an indefinite period until the Federal Open Market Committee chooses to reverse them. In contrast, QE programs provide a one-off, time-limited boost that has to be continually reapplied to have the same effect.

G20: Vows to act but few specifics

g20– Kenichi Kawasaki is managing director and senior analyst at Nomura Securities’ Financial and Economic Research Center. The views expressed are his own –

The G20 leaders failed to come up with any concrete policy steps to pull the global economy out of recession at the London summit. The leaders vowed to restore growth and jobs, but lacked specifics about fiscal measures by each country and there were no binding promises.

There were expectations that the summit would tackle the issue of rising protectionism, but the summit is not an appropriate place to discuss international trade and investment. We saw a measure of results in expanding assistance to emerging economies, but it made the summit look as if it were a mere international conference on aid to emerging economies.

World stuck with the dollar, more’s the pity

jimsaftcolumn5– James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

The dollar is, and will remain, the U.S.’s currency and its own and everyone else’s problem.

The idea of creating a global currency, as espoused by China earlier this week, is interesting, has a certain amount of merit and is simply not going to happen any time soon.

The state-sponsored shadow banking system

James Saft Great Debate – James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

The shadow banking system in Europe isn’t so much dead as being kept on life support by banks and central banks in what amounts to a desperate but risky attempt to avoid the reckoning.

You might be forgiven for thinking that the biggest single month ever for securitization in Europe and Britain was sometime before we all realized that we were in a credit bubble, sometime like the sunny days of 2006.

Time to rethink inflation targeting

John Kemp Great Debate– John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

It is time to add another victim to the ever-growing list of institutions (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers) and theories (value at risk, fair value accounting and originate to distribute) which have been tested by the financial crisis and found wanting. The central bank practice of inflation targeting — the jewel in the crown of modern monetary economics — has palpably failed.

Over the last two decades, inflation targeting has emerged as the most popular strategy for monetary policy among the world’s major central banks, and become something of a state-of-the-art choice among theorists and central bankers.

Too many hopes pinned on EU bank

paul-taylor– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

It works more like a sprinkler than a power hose, but the European Investment Bank has a role to play in preventing a financial inferno from sweeping across central and eastern Europe.

The trouble is that politicians have overloaded the European Union’s long-term lending arm with exaggerated expectations, calling on it like a fire brigade in every emergency, from saving credit-starved small firms to greening the car industry, combating the energy crisis and fighting climate change.

Fighting deflation globally ain’t easy

James Saft Great Debate – James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

With the U.S., Japan and Britain — nearly 40 percent of the global economy — facing the threat of deflation, it’s going to be just too easy for one, two or all three of them to get the policy response horribly wrong.

The global economy is so connected, and our experience with similar situations so limited that the scope for error is huge.

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