Market plunge makes Beijing’s exit harder
– Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own —
The Chinese leaders have a dream. The banks pump trillions of yuan into the market, which props up asset prices, creates new demand, and gets the economic engine roaring again. Then, just before inflation starts to surge, the money is drained out of the system.
Others, from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, share the dream but the Chinese economy, still largely driven by the state, should make it easier to realise. Unfortunately, investors in Shanghai’s stock market have their own ideas — the mere suggestion of credit tightening caused the index to plunge 20 percent in just two weeks to Wednesday’s close before bouncing slightly.
The Chinese policymakers are left between a rock and hard place. At some stage, they must stop pumping money into the system, and prepare to mop it up instead, but timing this to avoid another stock market slump looks close to impossible.
Investors can remember what happened the last time. The central bank’s resumption of sales of one-year bills in July looks similar to the tightening action which began in May 2003. That prompted a six-month fall in stock prices.
That time, Beijing was slow to show it meant business. A couple of reserve rate hikes were largely symbolic, and it was not until late 2004 that interest rates were raised, 18 months after the first move. The market had lost half its value about a year later.
Beijing might not be very effective at controlling wild swings in the market, but it is effective at jump-starting the economy. While Japan had to pump free liquidity into the system for seven years before economic growth returned, it’s taken just half a year for China’s astonishing GDP growth to resume.
China economic forecasts: go herbal or Western?
–Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own–
Which would you believe when it comes to diagnosing the health of China’s economy — the pulse-taking of the herbal doctor or the lab tests of Western medicine?
Beijing’s leaders are like the herbal doctors, using creative metrics such as power output and shipping indexes that can give a relatively accurate snapshot of manufacturing activity.
Private-sector economists, by comparison, believe in more mainstream data such as money supply and fixed asset investment even though they might not be completely useful in measuring a transitioning economy such as China.
Going by the latest economic indicators, the pulse shows the body is still listless, while the lab test is showing signs of a recovery to health. The last time this happened to China was in 2001, when the world was about to emerge from a brief recession.
It turns out that — like the debate over Western versus Eastern medicine — both methods have their pros and cons. And their relative advantages may be shifting as China itself changes.
SPECIAL INSIGHT
“China should invest more in tangible goods like gold and other commodities which they luckily are doing right now to a certain degree.”
Well now, could and would, China use US debt instruments to invest in these ‘more tangible goods like gold…’
One way to sink the USS Ship of Debt! And it’s environmentally safe given that the debt is highly toxic and makes swine flu appear more as a mild cold.
Despite all this blahblah, China is still a second-rate economy that is doctored up by their government (since it is essentially run entirely by their government.) Moreover, China is overly dependent on exports – by design from America as a means of control, though most would see the opposite as being true – and they are at the mercy of ‘the West’. They need us a helluva lot more than ‘the West’ needs their investment dollars. In the community of nations it’s hard to respect someone that needs you more than you need them and so, I would argue, China is not yet worthy of respect.