The Great Debate

– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

European Union leaders this week face a crucial credibility test of their ambition to lead the world in fighting climate change, just as President-elect Barack Obama is making it a top priority for the United States.

Will the EU give real teeth to its pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 percent by 2020, draw 20 percent of their energy from renewable sources and cut energy consumption by 20 percent over the same period, or will it fall short?

The omens for the Dec. 11-12 summit are not too encouraging.

Europe’s climate goals were agreed in March 2007 in sunnier economic days. The financial crisis and looming recession have fueled pressure from heavy industry and some governments to go easy on implementation measures.

The EU will almost certainly reach a deal by the early hours of Saturday, which French President Nicolas Sarkozy will no doubt declare a triumph for his presidency of the bloc.

– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

With Europe and the United States staring recession in the face, a growing chorus is calling for massive public investment in clean, green energy to revive economic growth while fighting climate change.

Under the slogan of a “Green New Deal”, leaders from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier argue that industrialized countries can kill two birds with one stone and create millions of “green collar” jobs.

This year is set to be about the 10th warmest since records began in the 19th century, according to Phil Jones, a leading British climate scientist -- see story here.

But does that confirm a long-term trend of global warming, stoked by human emissions of greenhouse gases, or show that it has stalled? The warmest year on record is now a while ago, in 1998.

Jones, head of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, has no doubt that the underlying trend is still up -- 1998 was an unusual year when global temperatures were boosted by an El Nino weather event in the Pacific Ocean. And this year, the opposite La Nina effect is cooling the planet.