Renewables to spark U.S. grid revolution
Growing power consumption and the U.S. administration’s plan to rely more heavily on renewable generation sources will increase the demand on America’s already overloaded electricity grid and require major investment in transmission and distribution networks.
Upgrading power transmission and distribution systems is likely to cost as much as installing new generating capacity over the next 20 years.
While Congress provided an extra $4.5 billion of funding for grid improvements in the recent fiscal stimulus, federal loan guarantees and other support, far more investment will be needed if the administration’s targets for renewable generation are to be realized.
In its “Annual Energy Outlook 2009″ (AEO2009), the Energy Information Administration projects consumption will increase by 1,000 billion kilowatt hours (26 percent) between 2007 and 2030. The United States will need to install 259 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity to replace aging generators taken out of service (30 GW) and meet increased demand on the system (229 GW).
A report prepared for the Edison Foundation by consultants Brattle Group last year put the capital cost of capacity installation at between $500 billion and $1 trillion (depending on how much of the total is met by cheap sources such as coal and gas and how much by expensive sources such as nuclear, wind and solar). Click here for PDF.
AEO2009 projects that most of the added generating capacity will be from conventional sources such as natural gas (53 percent), coal (18 percent) and nuclear (5 percent). But a substantial proportion will come from renewables (22 percent), raising the share of renewable power in total generation from 8 percent in 2007 (much of it from hydro dams) to as much as 13 percent in 2030.
The biggest additional contribution will come from the combustion of biomass waste products left over from increased production of ethanol to meet the federal government’s ambitious targets. The other major contribution will come from wind. Solar is likely to make a marginal contribution in the timeframe owing to high cost.
One thing that will help us meet the goals presented is to conserve where possible. If you’re not using as much electricity to begin with you won’t need as much infrastructure. In my own apartment I did knock down the electrical usage by one seventh, and we’re a family of five. If the government further encouraged conservation they could lower the cost to be invested by a similar amount.
In my case, why I started on the route to conservation to the extent I have is saving myself money. It pays off big time. Our budget isn’t as stretched as it would have been otherwise. More savings have also been realized by turning down the thermostat, installing LED nitelights and other technologies. Saving money on the utilities has allowed me to further invest in even more items that save money, like NiMH batteries.