The Great Debate

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Why Britain’s days as a haven of political, economic stability are numbered

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 21, 2014

Flares are let off as police stand guard while pro-union protestors clash with pro-independence protestors during a demonstration at George Square in Glasgow

For the past five years, Britain has been a haven of political and economic stability amid the turbulence in Europe. No longer.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Time for a ‘melt-up’: The coming global boom

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 14, 2014

European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi speaks at a news conference during the World Bank/IMF annual meetings in Washington

Get ready for a “melt-up.”

Back in mid-October, as stock markets around the world plunged faster than at any time since 2011, many investors and economists feared a meltdown. But with the U.S. economy steadily expanding, monetary and fiscal policies becoming more stimulative in other parts of the world and the autumn season for financial crises now over, a melt-up seems far more likely.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Why political gridlock works for the U.S. economy, but not for Japan or EU

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 7, 2014

U.S. President Obama hosts a luncheon for bi-partisan Congressional leaders in the Old Family Dining Room at the White House in Washington

Is gridlocked government a betrayal of democracy? Or does it allow citizens to get on with their lives and businesses, unencumbered by meddlesome politicians?

from Breakingviews:

Rob Cox: Fragility bigger worry than volatility

October 21, 2014

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

from Anatole Kaletsky:

An ‘atomic bomb’ is hovering over France’s economy

By Anatole Kaletsky
October 10, 2014

France's President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel talk during a conference on jobs in Milan

An “atomic bomb” is about to blow up in “the confrontation between Paris and Brussels.”

Is there a new crack in the West’s sanctions regime against Russia?

By William E. Pomeranz
September 26, 2014

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President Barack Obama’s speech at the United Nations Wednesday offered to roll back the U.S. sanctions if Russia takes the “path of diplomacy and peace.” This overture comes on the heels of an emerging ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and continuing discussions in Minsk to find a political solution to the turmoil in eastern Ukraine.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Why this Ukraine ceasefire will stick

By Anatole Kaletsky
September 19, 2014

A boy sits on an APC as he poses for a picture during a parade in Luhansk, eastern Ukraine

The war in eastern Ukraine, which has had more impact on the European economy than any news coming out of Frankfurt or Brussels, appears to be ending. Despite the sporadic attacks that have wrecked previous ceasefire attempts.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Why breaking up Britain could tear apart the EU, too

By Anatole Kaletsky
September 12, 2014

A bunch of 'Yes' balloons are seen as Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond campaigns in Edinburgh, Scotland

While recent opinion polls have swung slightly back toward the "no" camp, there remains a distinct possibility that Thursday's Scottish referendum will trigger a previously unthinkable breakup of Britain.

Putin’s already paying dearly for Ukraine – and looks willing to sacrifice much more

By William E. Pomeranz
August 12, 2014

Russia's President Vladimir Putin chairs a government meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a “go it alone” approach throughout the Ukraine crisis and regularly describes his country as “independent” and nonaligned. But Moscow is not as isolated as Putin makes out. The fact that he cannot see this reality — or chooses to ignore it — has produced a series of decisions that has seriously undermined Russia’s global role.

Putin’s anti-American rhetoric now persuades his harshest critics

By Nina Khrushcheva
July 29, 2014

People I know in Russia, members of the intelligentsia and professionals who have long been critical of President Vladimir Putin’s anti-Western stance, have suddenly turned into America-bashers. Many have been swept away by Putin’s arguments that the United States, not the Kremlin, is destabilizing Ukraine.