– Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The opinions expressed are his own –
Dollar bears have been disappointed by the G20.
Talk of re-balancing remained just talk; the bears can discern nothing substantial. Some risk is being taken off and dollars bought back selectively. While the dollar’s general downtrend is intact, there are risks of a temporary reversal, with some seeing the euro temporarily back to $1.4500/50.
Traders can contrast G20 with the Plaza Accord in 1985 which was driven by U.S. Treasury Secretary James Baker’s persistence. But he only had to convince four peers. G20 is and will be a different story. Dealing with the G20 must be like herding cats.
Disappointment over G20 has come at an inauspicious moment. Extensive short dollar foreign exchange positions have been underpinned by the unparalleled provision of dollar liquidity by the world’s central banks.
The market has used that dollar liquidity to fund purchases of other currencies and assets. Currency speculators raised their bets against the dollar in the latest week to the most since March, 2008, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed.