Eric Auchard– Eric Auchard is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Pundits have been talking endlessly about the possible green shoots of recovery in the ravaged world economy.

But early shoots are not always green. They might want to consider the problem of black shoots. These false starts are familiar to lily growers, when a temporary rise in soil temperature occurs after a cold period.

In the technology world, recent signs of restocking have been proclaimed as evidence of green shoots. Investors wanted to be persuaded and this has helped propel global tech indices 50 percent higher in the past three months.

But a collection of many of the world’s largest wholesalers of technology attending the Global Technology Distribution Council’s annual European conference are bracing for tough times rather betting on any early recovery. They are in the black shoots camp, rather than the green one.