The Great Debate

‘Energy independence’ is a farce

By Ben Adler
October 19, 2012

It can be hard to find areas of agreement between the presidential candidates on economic or domestic policy. Tuesday night’s debate, though, revealed one exception: energy policy. Alas, what it also revealed is that both President Obama and Governor Romney are making their policies based on a false premise, and they are pandering to Americans’ ignorance instead of telling them the truth.

Ending renewable energy’s villainy

By Vice-Admiral Dennis V. McGinn
September 12, 2012

The Republican and Democratic National Conventions mark the beginning of the end for the 2012 presidential campaign and – one hopes – the end of a regrettable chapter in American politics: a time when supporting real economic growth by encouraging American entrepreneurs became less important than throwing political punches.

Should ExxonMobil be broken up?

May 11, 2012

This book review was originally published in the American Prospect, and is republished here with permission.

America’s path to alternative energy runs through Brazil

By Regina Joseph
March 30, 2012

Mitt Romney alone can no longer be saddled with the label of most obvious flip-flopper among this year’s presidential candidates. That honor instead belongs to Barack Obama, whose 180 on the Keystone XL pipeline construction last week was sufficient to induce whiplash among oil industry executives and green advocates alike.

Making oil and mining dollars transparent

By Guest Contributor
July 14, 2011

By Raymond C. Offenheiser
The opinions expressed are his own.

For most of us, this July 15th will be the start of just another hot summer weekend. But for many, the day marks the one-year anniversary of Congressional approval of a landmark law that will lift the veil of secrecy on billions of dollars that flow every year from oil and mining companies to governments around the world.

Let them eat oil

By Guest Contributor
March 21, 2011

OIL-BIROL/INDONESIA/

By Erik Mielke, who is a partner at Namir Capital Management LLC, a New York-based investment management firm that invests in emerging markets. The opinions expressed are his own.

Will oil prices stabilize around $80?

November 29, 2010

Most commentators and oil analysts are convinced a further rise in prices is inevitable in the next few years as emerging market consumption grows and supplies increasingly come from more costly and technically challenging sources such as ultra-deepwater.

Forecasting and its discontents

August 27, 2010

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future,” is attributed to a long list of people. Even with that in mind, however, the first eight months of 2010 have been especially unkind to professional forecasters and investors as markets have lurched between extremes of pessimism and optimism.

Speculators abandon oil for the moment

August 23, 2010

Bullishness about the short-term prospects for crude is evaporating among banks and hedge funds, as the market fails to sustain rallies above $80 and girds for widespread refinery shutdowns to work off bulging gasoline stocks.

Micro and macro volatility in the oil market

July 20, 2010

- John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own –

“Most probably we will continue to have reasonably high short-term volatility but in a narrower price range between $60-95 per barrel”.
That was the (accurate) forecast for crude oil prices given by Mercuria’s head of trading Daniel Jaeggi to the UN Commodities Forum in Geneva back in March [ID:nLDE62M0MT].
In fact front-month futures <CLc1> have been trapped in an even narrower range of $60-86 for the past 12 months, shrinking to $64-86 so far in 2010. Spot prices have barely budged since July last year, despite a substantial improvement in demand, as one puzzled investment bank noted recently.
Yet many traders complain high volatility is making either directional or technical strategies difficult to implement.
The apparent contradiction (high levels of very short-term price movement in a market trending sideways) highlights the different levels of volatility prevailing at different time horizons.