James Saft Great Debate – James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Even without a huge fiscal boost or a hell-for-leather central bank, Europe could have a recovery, albeit a tepid one, on the cards by the end of the year.

Recent forward looking economic data is still grim, but hides within it the seeds of a rebound, as the absolutely brutal fall in manufacturing over the past six months burns itself out.

The euro zone’s economic situation is still dire and it still faces outsized risks; its banking system must deleverage and has the potential for disastrous losses while it remains unclear who in the world exactly is going to be buying enough goods to stoke a sustained recovery.

But nothing goes in the same direction forever, and absent a health or banking disaster it is reasonable to expect positive surprises from demand as the year wears on.