The Great Debate

from Ian Bremmer:

Why the U.S. is not—and never will be—Japan

By Ian Bremmer
November 18, 2011

By Ian Bremmer
The opinions expressed are his own.

Though I’ve already written about the recent Munk debate in Toronto elsewhere, it’s worth taking some space to expand on my position, and why the U.S. truly is not going to experience a Japan-style lost decade of economic stagnation.

Imagine when China runs a trade deficit

By Wei Gu
September 28, 2009

WeiGucrop.jpg– Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own —

Global rebalancing to weaken dollar, quietly

September 24, 2009

– Neal Kimberley is an FX market analyst for Reuters. The opinions expressed are his own –forex

For Chinese exporters, grass is greener abroad

September 17, 2009

WeiGucrop.jpg- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. -

The U.S.-China tire dispute threatens to spill into other sectors and squeeze Chinese exporters’ already razor-thin margins further. It might seem mind-boggling to many that Chinese manufacturers are still hanging on to weak overseas markets even though the domestic economy looks much healthier and surely offers more potential.

from The Great Debate UK:

Obama risks South-American style economic decline

September 8, 2009

richard-wellings- Richard Wellings is Deputy Editorial Director at the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own.-

from The Great Debate UK:

The economy: reasons to be miserable

June 2, 2009

Laurence Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own. -

from The Great Debate UK:

A bet against Castro’s immortality

April 23, 2009

REUTERS-- Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - "Practically everyone who follows Latin American events agrees that Castro's end is near." Thus one Laurence W Tuller, writing in 1994 in his manual on high-risk, high-reward investing. Defaulted Cuban government bonds had jumped on hopes of a settlement to allow the country back into the international capital markets.
Today, former leader Fidel Castro's end is 15 years nearer, but he's still there, albeit in semi-retirement, and holders of these pre-Castro bonds with a face value of around $200 billion are still waiting. Castro's regime kept good records, but have paid no interest, and ignored redemption dates since his revolution half a century ago.
Few Americans can remember why their administration has been so beastly to Cuba for so long.
Those who can mostly live in Florida, a key swing state, and many risked everything to get out of Cuba. They do not want to see their investment devalued by hordes of their former compatriots simply walking off the Delta Airlines flight from Havana.
Last week U.S. President Barack Obama eased the squeeze somewhat. Americans can now visit Cuba, but only if they have relatives there.
This gesture has re-ignited the bondholders' old hopes. Past settlements of defaulted sovereign bonds have tended to pay about half the total of accrued interest plus principal, so the buyers see plenty of upside.
Exotix, a specialist trader in "frontier markets", says its price for a typical Cuban bond instrument has risen from around 9 cents on the dollar at the start of this month to 14 cents on April 23.
Mind you, the spread is wide, the market thin and as events crowd in on the President, he might feel there are more pressing problems than to risk upsetting those key-voting Floridian Cubans.

from Global Investing:

Robin Hood in reverse?

December 1, 2008

Thirty-first U.S. President Herbert Clark Hoover once said: "Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt."

Bleak outlook for U.S. oil refiners

December 1, 2008

John Kemp Great Debate– John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

from Pakistan: Now or Never?:

America’s expanding war in Pakistan

November 23, 2008

U.S. military operations crossed another threshold in Pakistan this week when a Predator ‘drone’ aircraft fired missiles into Bannu area in North West Frontier Province (NWFP), away from the seven Federally Administered Tribal Areas where it has conducted raids with impunity.