The Cypriots have an expression: eninboro allo. It means: I cannot take any more of it.
There was jubilation last night outside the small Mediterranean island’s parliament when every single MP either voted against a plan to tax depositors or abstained. The message was that people of Cyprus had had enough and weren’t going to let the big bullies, led by Germany, boss them around.
The plan to tax insured deposits was a dreadful mistake – I have described it as legalised bank robbery. But the deposit tax was part of an unpalatable but available 10 billion euro bailout, agreed with the euro zone. That plan A is now at risk. As Cypriots contemplate possible plan Bs, their jubilation may start to fade: all of them are also dreadful.
Some observers, including my colleague Anatole Kaletsky, believe that Germany will now blink. With an election looming there in the autumn, that seems most unlikely. Berlin has said it is unwilling to back any loan bigger than 10 billion euros, already a non-trivial 60 percent of Cyprus’ GDP. The problem is that Nicosia needs 17 billion euros to recapitalise its banks and cover the government’s own expenses, leaving a 7 billion euro hole.
Berlin is right to refuse to lend more. Even with 10 billion euros, Cyprus’ debt will rise to around 130 percent of GDP. At 17 billion euros it would shoot up to around 160 percent of GDP. Under the original plan, debt was supposed to fall to 100 percent by 2020. But after the events of recent days, confidence will be so crushed and the island’s offshore finance business model so broken that this forecast now looks pie in the sky.
So what are Cyprus’ options? There are broadly three: sell its soul to Russia; default and possibly quit the euro; or patch together a new deal with the euro zone. They are all bad, but the last one is the least bad, for both Cyprus and the rest of Europe.