Comments on: China is the elephant in the situation room http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/ Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:27:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: Dafydd http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-570 Fri, 28 Dec 2012 10:36:26 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-570 As the US becomes a net energy exporter (and shale gas is exploited in other areas) energy becomes less important.

Fresh water will be an issue, environmental degradation and extreme earth/weather events will possibly be game changers. As there is no real market in fresh water, and what people are able to pay for the sort of volume they need is close to nothing per gallon, it is difficult to see how such issues can be addressed. Suffice it to say fresh water issues will put a brake on growth in China, South Asia and the Middle East.

But how China can handle population aging is the really big variable. Much of the West’s issue is tied up with an aging population. China faces a much more rapid aging. Just because they don’t have government benefits doesn’t mean there is no cost to aging. And it will make the costs less predictable and possibly higher.

It is hard to see how any nation can handle all the issues China has coming without major upheaval. Telling the West we don’t understand, or that China is a civilisation and we are somehow not (i.e. ‘uncivilised’) is just silly.

How can a one party state leadership show any level of flexibility? I cannot see the CCP relinquishing power voluntarily. If they do not relinquish power they face the stagnation of rule by committee. Involuntarily power change is called revolution.

China has major issues, the leadership does not have the authority and charisma of Deng Xiaoping, never mind Mao. I see no path forward for China that will not include revolution.

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By: tmc http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-567 Thu, 27 Dec 2012 11:11:42 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-567 I think the report is very easy reading and touches on most economic drivers fairly well. I would love to read one of the real reports (the classified ones). I agree with most perspective in it, though I think they were purposely light on the impact of Israel. I think shortly a war will force the United States to decide if it will truly support Israel. As Winston Churchill eluded to, I think we will support them initially, but then realize that pretty much the rest of the world will be against us, and we will withdraw support. We’ll see.
I really doubt much of the “Fusion” world will occur. I think the world will be much closer to the “stalled engine”. The Individual Power megatrend is causing a lot of havoc and I think that trend will continue. The most recent challenge to it was soundly beaten back at the UN. The down side of this megatrend is less thoughtful government and more mob rule. I think there is a period of our history shaping up where we find that we are not ready for a truly democratic government where all people have equal input. The world and especially the United States are still far to diversified to have a strong, cohesive voice. It will take many generations for that to occur.
I say this as I troll thru the comments on around a dozen international news sites. The vast majority of comments are still at a personnel and national level of greed. I see extremely few that are global and generous.

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By: starrystarry http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-566 Thu, 27 Dec 2012 05:54:52 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-566 I don’t think market can solve everything. It must be combined with the government..

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By: trevorh http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-565 Thu, 27 Dec 2012 02:01:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-565 btw, my comment was not meant to target any country specifically just in case it upsets anybody.

I was talking about a widespread general problem everywhere. Too many people don’t know or don’t care about their limit. Too many unreasonable people…

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By: trevorh http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-564 Wed, 26 Dec 2012 20:14:55 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-564 Humans driven and dominated by the selfish (and even unreasonable) will continue to expand, spread and spend away resources in their community, their area, their country. The only way for them to survive is to spread to another area, taking the resources and lifelines from someone else and then say “that’s why life is”.

There will always be excuses to do bad things if the underlying intention is ill. The unreasonable will refuse to treat people the same way they want to be treated, will refuse to respect other’s free will, will refuse to consider themselves in other’s situation.

War will not be done in a flash, with bullets and explosion. The stealing and robbing will still be there, but it will be done in a slow and steady way. It will not be done with the fist and force but with the slow and firm hug under the ‘peaceful’ mask.

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By: PseudoTurtle http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-563 Wed, 26 Dec 2012 15:00:12 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-563 I agree, except “Market as God” should really be “Market as 666″.

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By: UScitizentoo http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-562 Wed, 26 Dec 2012 01:20:58 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-562 You know it never fails to amaze me how off track this sort of report is. I mean, talk about self serving political garbage. Here’s the bottom line, pardner. Oil dependent oil importing economies are dead or dying. Oil exporting economies are surging. Canada’s just fine, Norway, Russia, all net energy exporters. The life blood of any country is was and always will be energy. The short term prognosis for ANY oil dependent oil importing economy is, 1) how much is it bleeding cash for energy which is 10 times more expensive than 15 years ago and 2) how much is it in debt which will affect it’s ability to change infrastructure to stop bleeding cash and 3) which governments are going to overcome the vested interest driving their economies into the ground.
Answer those questions and you’ll have a solid look at the future.

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By: gee.la http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-561 Wed, 26 Dec 2012 00:05:41 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-561 There is no G 2. There is only one super power, believe me, it is market. Market will be the government of the governments, the master of the masters, the lord of the lords and the king of the kings or queens. All the people, all the nations, all the technologies, all the future and all the hot water will knee down in front of market. Market governs everything and anything not only on the planet of earth. Neither person nor nation can live alone. The future is the future of market. Market Is God.

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By: PseudoTurtle http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-560 Tue, 25 Dec 2012 22:10:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-560 Frankly, ANY report that purports to predict the future in roughly 20 years from now should be viewed with a high degree of skepticism, which would perhaps have made a better approach for your article than simply to accept it verbatim.

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By: PseudoTurtle http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2012/12/24/china-is-the-elephant-in-the-situation-room/#comment-559 Tue, 25 Dec 2012 19:32:42 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=542#comment-559 The reality, which you gloss over in the section entitled ” Food, water, energy nexus: “Demand for these resources will grow substantially … Their share of the population will grow — as will demand for water as their middle classes grow. Expect the gap to close—with dramatic ramifications for global food supplies — as China’s middle class grows through 2030.” is that there aren’t enough resources to supply the world with anywhere near OECD standards now, and arguably not enough for everyone to survive on ANY stanards by 2030.

This will translate into “resource wars”, unlike your peaceful cooperation scenario.

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