Comments on: Is this the end of the Iran status quo? http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/ Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:27:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: paintcan http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-994 Mon, 28 Oct 2013 17:58:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-994 It’s even more likely nothing will happen if negotiations fail. A useless and wasteful argument will continue indefinitely and third or forth options will grow. New oil supplies, changes of technology and the emergence of new powers and economies could make those trapped in the current argument less important if not irrelevant. The argument may even be contributing to their weakening or even their demise and allowing those other options to grow faster. Maybe that’s a good thing? While the big guys are engaged in their conflicts and wasting their strengths, others are emerging who just might bury them. Someone will have to replace the old rotters before their conflicts stinks up the rest of the world.

All things must pass.

Lets face it – many people love the idea of Armageddon. It is change from their boring and frustrating lives even if it might mean the end of their lives.

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By: Urban_Guerilla http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-993 Mon, 28 Oct 2013 10:43:19 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-993 What the worst case scenario is kind of depends on your point of view.

I do not think that Iran enriching weapons grade uranium is such a big deal.

I think the possibility of a unilateral Israeli attack causing major radiation leaks to be a much worse scenario.

Or some sort of conflagration between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Iran using the Houthis from Yemen plus rebels in Bahrain and Eastern Saudi, while the Saudis send in their al Qaeda mates.

Iran enriching Uranium will not of itself kill people. Iran being attacked will.

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By: MarkThomason http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-991 Sun, 27 Oct 2013 23:13:32 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-991 “The West’s crippling sanctions, led by the U.S., have worked.”

So too has Iran’s policy worked to force the West to finally make a deal, to make the hard choices of what to offer. Until now, it was just hammer on them for surrender. Now they are so close that without a deal, they’ll go over the line.

So it is ripe for a deal, but because of what has been done by both sides. The West is constrained too, for the first time to make a deal, just like Iran is.

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By: OUTPOST2012.NET http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-990 Sun, 27 Oct 2013 15:11:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-990 We’ve been discussing this issue, along with another one – the stability and predictability of the system – on our international forum for a long time.

We also came to the conclusion that objectively Iran would never surrender its nuclear program. There are FIVE nations in the radius of 1,000 miles from Iran possessing the nukes.

http://outpost2012.net/discussion/90/ira n-on-the-path-to-an-exclusive-club-the-l egal-aspects-and-realpolitik-/p1

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By: Dhirajkunar http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-989 Sun, 27 Oct 2013 11:11:43 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-989 Mr. Bremmer thinks he can fool the readers of his column by saying Israel/US will strike Iran if there is no progress. Bremmer, like Nut yahoo has been behind this strike thing from the past many years. Iran has repeatedly proven that its nuclear technology is not for negotiations. Even if the west dosent approve of it. A strike on Iran by any country will be the end of Israel. This is the reason why there will be no strike on Iran, even if Bremmer may think he can try to fool his readers.

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By: jrpardinas http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-988 Sat, 26 Oct 2013 15:54:32 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-988 Like other technologically advanced non-nuclear nations (Germany, Japan, and about 40 others), Iran now has the capability to assemble nuclear weapons rather quickly.

Therefore, the only question remaining for it to negotiate with the West is whether it actually chooses to do. For it is sheer fantasy to imagine that Iran would surrender its right to enrich and dismantle its nuclear infrastructure.

Furthermore, neither the USA nor Israel have the political and economic bandwidth to start the war they are constantly threatening. A war that, in any case, would only delay Iran’s ability to go nuclear, and would most certainly guarantee it.

With the Iranians willing to grant verifiable assurances that they are not producing nuclear weapons, the regime of sanctions against Iran is sure to collapse. It only remains to be seen when precisely the international community issues it a death certificate.

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By: Wantunbiasednew http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-987 Fri, 25 Oct 2013 21:09:10 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-987 It goes like this:
Iran has the only (after Iraq fall) diversified economy in the Middle East and by leaving its nuclear aspirations (most probably for 10-20 years, the know how can’t be erased from heads of Iran scientists and engineers) it will win hegemony in ME over Saudi Arabia.
But strong Iran means strong Syria.
Strong Syria means no taking over of Golan Heights plus some more Libanian and Syrian lands by Israel. It means no water in Israel.
Israel lobby in US is really strong.
So United States will bever allow peace with Iran and abolishing sanctions.
Other states will observe Iran de-nuclearization mainly Russia and China. It will be sth similar to Syria deal.
US in order to not loose face will have to take part in the process or at least cannot be against.
In the future China will guarantee Saudi Arabia status quo in return for Saudi oil.
By the way, China has much more experience in succesfully managing autoritharian society. A lot of experience to share with Saudi Arabia, Quatar, Kuwait, UAE etc.

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By: 2Borknot2B http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-986 Fri, 25 Oct 2013 19:16:10 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-986 The best-case scenario is that the West and Iran come to a deal. And, if the US doesn’t the international community will blame the United States and Israel. This will embolden major markets like China and Russia. Thus unraveling the West’s best bargaining chip with nothing to show for it in return. The West gets blamed, U.S. credibility is reduced even further, and Iran continues full speed ahead toward nuclear capability. (And, they have every sovereign right to do so. Unless, “other” countries are willing to give up their rights.)

We have reached the inflection point. The chance that the status quo continues is impossible. Success is closer now than ever — and that only makes the situation more precarious than ever before.

Ian, Sorry for the Blatant plagiarism. Love.

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By: KyleDexter http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/10/25/is-this-the-end-of-the-iran-status-quo/#comment-985 Fri, 25 Oct 2013 18:47:26 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=996#comment-985 Iran will never give up its right to enrichment. Period.

The apartheid state of Isreal and the empire of the United States can say whatever they want. And thats all it will ever be.

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