Comments on: Chinese reform is coming, but not the political kind http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/ Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:27:05 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: OUTPOST2012.NET http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-1002 Tue, 05 Nov 2013 09:36:28 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-1002 @davidake

You’d better pay attention to international patent law.
Virtually all computer brands were sold to China/Taiwan. The exception is HP/Compaq and Dell (talking of desktops.)

However, “producing Chinese brands and export to whole of the world” has nothing to do with patent/license rights used in the goods manufactured in China/Taiwan.

Just a decision of Intel – and the whole industry halts.

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By: UScitizentoo http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-1001 Mon, 04 Nov 2013 18:08:57 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-1001 > But somehow they’ll have to get more efficient, and less
> corrupt, for China to stay competitive internationally.
China owns the US congress. That’s all they have ever needed.

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By: davidake http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-1000 Sun, 03 Nov 2013 01:02:47 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-1000 “We always should keep in mind that China doesn’t have liceses/patents and the technology for virtually all export-worthy goods and services.”-outpost2012.

You must live in a half century ago. Have your heard “Huawei” and “Haier”? They produce Chinese brands and export to whole of the world. Do you guys in the west have license to use gun powder which was invented by Chinese? Come on, don’t be smart-axxx.

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By: OUTPOST2012.NET http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-999 Sat, 02 Nov 2013 09:26:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-999 We always should keep in mind that China doesn’t have liceses/patents and the technology for virtually all export-worthy goods and services.
In fact, The U.S. owns ca. 70% of all world licenses and patents.
The absolute dependency of China on the foreign technology is a very tight spot for The Great Chinese Expanse.

The urban population share in 1990 was 26%; now it is 52%. This change is truly amazing. However, the further economic growth will require much more efforts. From now on, each additional per cent of the labor force moved to the East will cost more.

There is a serious problem in inequality. The GINI coefficient is ca. 45%. But the trend of social polarization, and the pace of it, in particular, is quite disturbing.

The issue of the cost of labor was discussed for many times. So I am just mentioning it.

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By: Wantunbiasednew http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-998 Sat, 02 Nov 2013 03:34:19 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-998 The task of Xi Jinping, current paramount leader (which will be continued by his heir in the 2023-2032 period) is mainly economic development of China. They trace Japan and South Korea path. Chinese stated goal is to become developed country till 2030 and thus achieve then Japanese 1990 GDP per capita level , that means 60%-75% of United States per capita GDP. The goal is ambitious, but real with about 6-7% yearly GDP growth. But because China is huge this internal goal suddenly becomes the interesting issue for many Earth dwellers.
1. First of all because China is 10 million square km, 1.4 billion citizens country it has to be, and because Chinese authorities are both competent and cautious, it is developed gradually, province by province not like Japan and South Korea. (South Korea-Japan, 50-120 million people is an average size of 1 of 22 Chinese provinces). The common race and language identity really helps.
2. Why 2030 goal of becoming a “rich country” is achievable ? Constant, high investment/GDP level of about 40% (official Chinese statistics underestimates share of consumption in GDP). Fast building of first-class infrastructure of modern, developed urban society: transport infrastructure (highways, railways, high-speed railways, mass public transport, airports, sea ports), energy infrastructure (ultra high voltage power grid, thousands of miles of pipelines etc.), public goods infrastructure (mass residential real estate development, health care and education net). Each kind is on different level of development: state of the art sea ports but just starting with metro systems (but in total they are already longest in the world).
There are many obstacles on Chinese development path. They are of two main kinds: 3. resources and 4. political.
3. Resources. We are already used to ROW acronym. In many areas like consumption of raw materials like coal or copper, or production of basic industrial goods like steel it is China and Rest Of the World. China used more coal last year and will produce more steel this year than ROW.
So because China is and will be the largest consumer and importer of any raw material by high margin the planet resources constraint will become more and more visible.
4. Political. Internal task to become developed country till 2030 (60-75% of US GDP per capita level) because Chinese population is 4,3 times larger than US means its economy will be 2,4-3 times larger than US in about 2030. There are consequences. I’m pretty sure author of this article had an opportunity to glimpse at strategic games “Chinese development implication” etc. constructed in many D.C. buildings. The problem of them is the outcome is always the same: you can’t compete in economic terms with developed China, 35-40% of world GDP. Not as US, UE or Japan alone.
To sum all of this up: because China is a country, with stated goal of economic development and a few obstacles on its path: its size, different level of development of provinces, resources, external political factors it has to be immune to the highest extent possible to internal and external shocks. So: no real reform of closed current account, no external competition for Chinese savings, no convertibility of RMB, not significant changes to hukou system, not going green till nuclear plus huydropower becomes main electricity output sources. A lot of micro market reforms to enhance efficiency and boost innovation, always with tight grip of power.

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By: Wantunbiasednew http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-997 Sat, 02 Nov 2013 01:42:39 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-997 Article cites 2012 Global 500: China 73 (btw USA has 132 companies on this list).
A new 2013 Global 500 is available at the moment: China 89 companies(16 more than in 2012), USA 132 (the same as in 2012).
The world is changing, isn’t it ?

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By: edgyinchina http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2013/11/01/chinese-reform-is-coming-but-not-the-political-kind/#comment-996 Sat, 02 Nov 2013 00:10:57 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/?p=1009#comment-996 ‘of the 70 Chinese countries that made the cut, 65 of them are state-owned.’….. Where is the editor on this op-ed piece….. Where is the proof-reader?….

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