Political risk must-reads
Political risk must-reads
Eurasia Groupâ€™s selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie — presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us viaÂ @EurasiaGroupÂ orÂ @ianbremmer.
Japan: challenges and opportunities
â€śThe Incredible Shrinking Countryâ€ť — D.M., theÂ Economist
Japanâ€™s population began shrinking in 2004; last year, it declined by 244,000 people. The population is also aging: 22 percent of citizens are 65 or older. Is there any way to reverse these trends?
â€śJapanâ€™s Profound Ambivalence Over Nuclear Energyâ€ť — Per Liljas, Time
A recent poll found that 69 percent of Japanese citizens want nuclear power to be phased out. So why has Prime Minister Shinzo Abe just unveiled a new energy plan that goes against the publicâ€™s preference?
â€śAustralia and Japan Conclude Free Trade Dealâ€ť — Anthony Fensom, the Diplomat
After seven years of negotiation, Australia and Japan have inked a free trade deal. Over the next twenty years, it should provide an estimated boost to GDP of up to 1.79 percent for Australia and 0.13 percent for Japan. Australia is Japanâ€™s third-largest source of imports and tenth-largest export market.
America, China and India: jobs and economics
â€śJobs Report: Back to Where We Startedâ€ť — Â Ben Casselman, FiveThirtyEight
After six years, the United Statesâ€™ private sector has restored all the jobs lost in the Great Recession. But the situation is not as rosy as it appears. Total payroll (including government employment) remains 400,000 below its peak and the adult population has expanded by 14 million over this time span.
â€śIs the American Middle Class Losing Out to China and Indiaâ€ť — Thomas Edsall, theÂ New York Times
From 1998 to 2008, the middle class in China and India enjoyed an estimated 60 to 70 percent income growth, while growth stayed flat for the middle/working classes in the United States. Did China and India experience this growth at Americaâ€™s expense?
â€śThe numbers that explain why Amazon and eBay are pouring millions into Indiaâ€™s e-commerce marketâ€ť — Leo Mirani, Quartz
Last year, Indiaâ€™s 20 million online shoppers spent roughly $2 billion online. Some 280 million Chinese — half the countryâ€™s online population, more or less — spent $106 billion online in 2013. As India continues to play catch up on e-commerce, does it present an opportunity? Amazon set up shop in June.
â€śIs China the Next Lehman Brothers?â€ť — John Cassidy, the New Yorker
Since 1991, Chinaâ€™s inflation-adjusted growth rate has averaged roughly 10 percent a year. But Chinaâ€™s overall debts have risen from about 125 percent of GDP in 2008 to 200 percent last year. Do parts of China now resemble parts of the United States in 2007 — places like Florida and Nevada — with a real estate bubble about to burst? What would the impact on global markets be?
â€śWhat Superheroes Look Like in 14 Countries Around the Worldâ€ť — Abdul Siddiqui, PolicyMic
What are some of the more obscure foreign superheroes — and how do they reflect the culture they come from?