Ian's Feed
Dec 11, 2014
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Gold’s rally won’t outlast tectonic rate shift

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The gold price is up, but the three-year downward trend is far from over. The yellow metal looks attractive when oil price falls and a rising dollar are destabilising emerging economies and global stock markets. The little rally could go a bit further, but it is unlikely to survive the tectonic shifts which U.S. rate rises will bring to the financial world.

Nov 26, 2014
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Remember the UK housing bubble?

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Just months ago a new house price bubble was seen by many as the great danger for the UK. A chorus built for rate rises and special intervention in the mortgage market. Now the alarm calls are fading. A foreign capital flood has receded in London, home-loan approvals are down and house price inflation is easing. Bubble fears were premature.

Nov 6, 2014
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Gold bulls have precious little to cling to

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The golden metal is being crushed by the paper it despised. The dollar index is at a four-year high and the gold price at a four-year low, having fallen nearly 40 percent from its peak to below $1,200 an ounce. It is hard to see gold avoiding a swift plunge below $1,000 unless turmoil in other markets turns the precious metal into a temporary haven.

Nov 4, 2014
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End of U.S. QE is actually good for world economy

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

It’s long been the big question. What happens when U.S. Federal Reserve quantitative easing ends? Central bankers may find the answer troubling. Ending the Fed’s injections of freshly created money could well prove difficult for addicted investors and the wealthy, but good for global consumers, especially the poor, and for global growth.

Oct 1, 2014
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Cameron takes deficit amnesia to a new level

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

David Cameron crowed when UK opposition leader Ed Miliband forgot the deficit in a keynote speech last week. Yet Britain’s prime minister has now taken deficit amnesia to a new level, insisting on the need to tackle the country’s biggest problem while simultaneously pledging a tax giveaway. It’s an electoral bribe he can’t afford.

Sep 9, 2014
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Double-digit oil promises lubrication not seizure

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Double-digit oil is a welcome sign, not a harbinger of deflationary doom. The decline of the price of a barrel of Brent crude to just below $100, down 13 percent from its June peak, is good disinflation. It will help consumer spending and global economic recovery.

Sep 1, 2014
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Gold’s geopolitical ledge won’t hold up

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Ukrainian crisis and Middle Eastern conflict have provided a respite for the price of gold. After going over a cliff and dropping from heights of $1,700 an ounce during 2013, it has found a ledge at around $1,300. The ledge is eroding.

Jul 25, 2014
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UK’s strong GDP has a soft centre

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Fly the flag. The headlines will be about the solid milestone. The UK finally replanted its flag on its 2008 GDP growth peak, three years after Germany and the United States reclaimed theirs and after a mere five years of ultra-low interest rates. But the landscape – the details of the second-quarter GDP – has its uncomfortably rocky side.

Jun 16, 2014
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Blunt instrument is needed for global house bubble

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

House price bubbles thrust economies forward and crush them when they burst. The International Monetary Fund has now raised the prospect of a global housing bubble that could potentially destabilise the world economy. The risk is credible, but the IMF is sadly too coy about the root cause of the problem – ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy.

Jun 3, 2014
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UK housing bounce obscures a credit-lite recovery

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Strength in the UK housing market is obscuring a credit-lite recovery in the broader economy. It is easy to see why there is concern about a British house price bubble, but the bigger worry should still be the sustainability and breadth of the economic revival.