Ian's Feed
Sep 9, 2014
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Double-digit oil promises lubrication not seizure

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Double-digit oil is a welcome sign, not a harbinger of deflationary doom. The decline of the price of a barrel of Brent crude to just below $100, down 13 percent from its June peak, is good disinflation. It will help consumer spending and global economic recovery.

Sep 1, 2014
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Gold’s geopolitical ledge won’t hold up

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Ukrainian crisis and Middle Eastern conflict have provided a respite for the price of gold. After going over a cliff and dropping from heights of $1,700 an ounce during 2013, it has found a ledge at around $1,300. The ledge is eroding.

Jul 25, 2014
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UK’s strong GDP has a soft centre

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Fly the flag. The headlines will be about the solid milestone. The UK finally replanted its flag on its 2008 GDP growth peak, three years after Germany and the United States reclaimed theirs and after a mere five years of ultra-low interest rates. But the landscape – the details of the second-quarter GDP – has its uncomfortably rocky side.

Jun 16, 2014
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Blunt instrument is needed for global house bubble

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

House price bubbles thrust economies forward and crush them when they burst. The International Monetary Fund has now raised the prospect of a global housing bubble that could potentially destabilise the world economy. The risk is credible, but the IMF is sadly too coy about the root cause of the problem – ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy.

Jun 3, 2014
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UK housing bounce obscures a credit-lite recovery

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Strength in the UK housing market is obscuring a credit-lite recovery in the broader economy. It is easy to see why there is concern about a British house price bubble, but the bigger worry should still be the sustainability and breadth of the economic revival.

May 23, 2014
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Bank of England can overlook Russia’s problems

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By Ian Campbell, Edward Hadas

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

The British housing market is out of control. Many have called for the Bank of England to respond with a rate increase. It’s not that simple. London is not the UK, and the foreign funds which are supporting the capital’s bubble may fade away.

May 8, 2014
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Pound joins euro as weak dollar victim

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The pound has joined the euro in the unwanted currency strength camp. There are British factors but the main reason is that excessively loose U.S. monetary policy is distorting currency markets – and other markets besides. Trouble is in store.

Apr 29, 2014
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There’s something unhealthy about robust UK

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The UK’s first-quarter GDP came in strong, as expected. But something surprising lies in wait this year. The statisticians are going to solve one of the UK’s big problems – its low savings rate – with a tweak of their methodology. Wondrous numerical transformations – but reality is still sobering.

Apr 29, 2014
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There’s something unhealthy about robust UK

Photo

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The UK’s first-quarter GDP came in strong, as expected. But something surprising lies in wait this year. The statisticians are going to solve one of the UK’s big problems – its low savings rate – with a tweak of their methodology. Wondrous numerical transformations – but reality is still sobering.

Apr 23, 2014
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London gives BoE an emerging economy problem

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The UK has a popularity problem which the Bank of England cannot solve. Foreigners have an unhealthily strong desire for London property. Before the financial crisis, many emerging markets tried, and basically failed, to deal with a similar excess of attention.