Buoyant markets too sanguine on end-of-QE threat
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The Fed’s hand is hovering over the wide open tap. The U.S. central bank may cautiously begin to ease its $85 billion monthly dose of quantitative easing. The gold bubble has burst in anticipation. The line of other losers could be long. With less liquidity from the Fed, bonds, commodities and stocks are likely to be hit – probably in that order.
Breakingviews – Gold moves back to the brink
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
By Ian Campbell
LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) – For gold investors, the bad news literally outweighs the good. The gold price looks headed down and may repeat April’s big falls. The pace of decline depends on U.S. data and the Federal Reserve.
UK minus EU is another loser from Lawson
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Nigel Lawson is back in the ring and as sharp as ever. The UK chancellor who dismissed his critics as “teenage scribblers” in the 1980s – as he fomented a housing bubble that weighed on the economy for half a decade – is now throwing his weight behind a UK exit from the EU. It will make Britain stronger, he jabs. Someone should throw in his towel.
Gold is the canary in the financial mine
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Gold is a canary in the mine for financial markets. Its burst bubble warns of the huge dangers lurking for bonds, commodities and stocks. Those dangers may be at a safe distance now, but they are real.
Breakingviews – Gold is the canary in the financial mine
By Ian Campbell
LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) – Gold is a canary in the mine for financial markets. Its burst bubble warns of the huge dangers lurking for bonds, commodities and stocks. Those dangers may be at a safe distance now, but they are real.
The correction in gold is an extreme case. The metal had everything in its favour for a decade. Goldbugs wisely distrusted the U.S. housing bubble. When it popped, quantitative easing debased the dollar and ultra-low interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold. A U.S. recovery, however weak, and a rising dollar were the writing on the wall. The smart money has already been heading out. The tipping point had to come, and has.
Gold teeters on edge of bigger falls
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Gold is teetering on the edge of big falls. The Cyprus crisis and Korean tensions have helped the safe-haven metal surprisingly little. That is probably because gold faces its nemesis in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s growing unease about quantitative easing.
UK cannot afford a budget giveaway
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The UK economy is flat-lining and austerity is blamed. But George Osborne should resist mounting pressure to reverse course or slash taxes in his third budget as Chancellor of the Exchequer on Wednesday.
Moody’s shaming brings UK gain in currency war
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The only question had been which rating agency would shoot first. Moody’s did the deed, removing the UK’s triple-A rating on Friday. It is a political humiliation for the UK government, but the downgrade also removes that lingering expectation of being gunned down. The irony is that the humbling may help the UK achieve recovery sooner – and without firing another monetary policy shot in the currency wars.
Gold melts as economy warms and Fed warns
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Gold is teetering on the brink of a precipitously high cliff. That some U.S. Federal Reserve officials are reluctant to press on with the bank’s quantitative easing was enough to knock it to a seven-month low. What an actual end to QE would mean is not something gold investors want to hang around to find out. Though it may be near to a ledge now, the metal’s medium-term downside looks deep.
Equity split from commodities may be short lived
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The often close correlation between equity and commodity prices has faded. World equities are up 15 percent since August while commodities have barely moved. Is this a paradigm shift? Probably not, though shale gas is rattling energy markets. Equities may simply have run too fast on the back of quantitative easing while commodity investors have hesitated over global growth worries.
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