Ian's Feed
Jan 31, 2014
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Emerging vacuum a harbinger of global downdraught

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Emerging economy policymakers are wailing, understandably. But they can’t expect some magical coordination of global monetary policy. U.S. tightening is essential to curb global bubbles. Emerging markets are the first victims. They won’t be the last.

Dec 31, 2013
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Markets face a year as tough as 1994

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

It’s all priced in, the optimists say, referring to the likely tapering of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s money-printing. But tapering is just the beginning of the end of ever looser monetary policy and the long road towards normalisation.

Dec 30, 2013
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Dollar to give other currencies beating many want

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The dollar should make its way back from oblivion in 2014 as the Federal Reserve stops printing greenbacks like monopoly money. Emerging market currencies look vulnerable to a whipping they don’t want, the yen should continue to slide happily, the euro will ease and the pound will end up competing with the dollar at the front of the currency race.

Dec 11, 2013
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Why the UK is growing and the euro zone isn’t

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

British growth is forging ahead of the euro zone’s. UK austerity has been more effective, the pound is cheap, the housing market suddenly all too lively. But British simplicity also helps. A Germanically strong euro weighs heavily on a still systemically challenged zone.

Nov 28, 2013
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UK budget must deliver homes not bubbles

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

George Osborne has something to boast about during his budget update on Dec. 5. UK growth is up and the deficit is down. But the Chancellor of the Exchequer has engineered an all-too-British recovery, in which house-price inflation will soon be too prominent. A radical policy shift is needed to build a genuinely sustainable revival.

Nov 21, 2013
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Gold hasn’t melted down to its base yet

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By Ian Campbell

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Gold’s meltdown is not over. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus have pushed the precious metal’s price down to just under $1,250 per ounce – 35 percent below its 2011 peak. When the Fed actually starts tapering its bond purchases, investors will keep fleeing. That will leave the price of bullion relying heavily on demand from the jewellery trade.

Nov 8, 2013
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ECB adds to bubbly markets’ risky lack of fear

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The European Central Bank rate cut on Thursday is yet another bit of monetary policy loosening. The aim is not to make markets frothy – but that is the result. There may seem no catalyst for bubbles to burst. But the absence of fear is itself a warning.

Oct 2, 2013
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Global snowbelt leaves the world behind

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Go north, young man, and, even more so, young woman. That is a message implicit in the World Economic Forum’s new Human Capital Index. Talent is squandered in most of the world. The flight of the talented to wealthy northern economies reinforces the recipient nations’ success and risks leaving the donor countries lagging behind.

Sep 30, 2013
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UK’s politicians race to the bottom on policies

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The next UK general election is in 2015, and the country’s politicians are already engaged in a classic pre-electoral sport: the race to the bottom. They are desperate for policies which please voters and the competition is fierce. Popularity is the aim, populism is the method. None of it is going to do the economy any good.

Sep 25, 2013
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Dangerous Fed roulette rules global markets

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By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Global markets are now an especially dangerous game. Call it Fed roulette. The U.S. Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke promised clarity, forward guidance, a smooth exit policy. Forget it. The Fed couldn’t even guide markets to what it would do in September – let alone in 2015. Its decision last week was as unexpected as a spin of a roulette wheel. And the problems don’t stop there.