Ian's Feed
Oct 15, 2010
via Breakingviews

Dollar’s Asian fall is good for the world

The dollar this week touched its lowest level for 2010. That little Singapore’s adoption of a higher trading band helped trigger the sell-off adds to the talk of its demise. The expectation of more quantitative easing at home is certainly not helping the U.S. currency. But the relative rise of Asian currencies is a good thing. Global rebalancing has been called for: this is it.

Asian currencies need to revalue. Many economies are growing fast, with exports a key driver. The countries run trade surpluses and also attract large capital flows. Their response has been to try to prevent currency appreciation. That means soaring foreign exchange reserves, excess money growth — and the risk of inflation and asset bubbles.

Oct 11, 2010
via Breakingviews

Fed ought to consider global bubbles

Sound monetary policy it might be said, begins at home. The prime goal of the Federal Reserve is to nurture a sound U.S. economy. But it would be naive to ignore the fact that Fed policy also drives markets around the globe. And at present the Fed risks blowing global bubbles, with potentially damaging effects.

The bubble blowing begins with beliefs about the Fed’s thinking. In the past few weeks the understanding has become that the Fed favours a second round of quantitative easing. The impacts have been many: a sharp fall in the dollar against the euro, yen and many emerging market currencies, appreciating bonds and equities in the developed world and emerging markets, a new record gold price, and a jump in global commodity prices to two year highs.

Sep 23, 2010
via Breakingviews

U.S. and China must both give way in currency war

Tensions over the cheap yuan are running high amid Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to New York. Japan’s deliberate weakening of the yen further aggravates China. The irony is that America, too, might be said to be pursuing a weak currency policy. And there are other, quieter, victims in the currency wars.

Currency strains are proliferating because global growth is scarce. The United States is not recovering fast. Many American businesses and politicians accuse China of taking away American jobs. A congressional committee may vote for trade sanctions on China on Friday. Quarrels could get nasty and lead to reprisals.

Sep 16, 2010
via Breakingviews

Japan’s yen intervention shows welcome activism

Currency interventions are generally seen as unwise props for weakness or beggar-my-neighbour treatments for strength. But Japan’s first intervention in six years to weaken the yen is more about tackling persistent deflation and stagnation in the world’s third biggest economy and is therefore welcome.

The move came the day after premier Naoto Kan survived a leadership challenge. The ministry of finance sold yen and bought dollars to weaken Japan’s currency. But Kan’s government also appears to be shoving the sluggish Bank of Japan towards action. Tadao Noda, a BoJ board member, intimated in a meeting with businessmen that the bank was unlikely to “sterilise” the finance ministry’s yen sales — mopping it up with issuance of short-term bills — but would let the move add liquidity. Noda also talked of decisive policy measures to combat deflation. This may reflect new-found urgency within the BoJ to address the threat.

Aug 26, 2010
via Breakingviews

Bernanke’s message: we can get out of this hole

We may not be in such a bad hole here but if we are, we can get out of it. That is likely to be the message from Ben Bernanke, the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, to bankers and policymakers at their annual powwow in comfortable Jackson Hole on Friday.

Bernanke’s keynote address comes at a moment of overriding fear for the U.S. and global economy. U.S. housing data this week were awful. Last week’s weekly jobless claims figure was alarming, though this week’s was marginally less so. Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, suffered their biggest fall in July for 18 months. To the markets, all of this is suggestive of the dreaded double dip.

Aug 20, 2010

Q&A: Should the West worry about Iran’s Bushehr plant?

By Fredrik Dahl

(Reuters) – Russia is to start loading fuel into Iran’s first nuclear power station at Bushehr on Saturday, signaling its launch after years of delays even as Tehran faces increased international pressure over its atomic activity.

Iran will probably hail the event as further evidence that its nuclear program is designed to generate electricity and that the West is wrong to accuse it of seeking to develop weapons from nuclear technology.

Aug 20, 2010

Q&A – Should the West worry about Iran’s Bushehr plant?

By Fredrik Dahl

(Reuters) – Russia is to start loading fuel into Iran’s first nuclear power station at Bushehr on Saturday, signalling its launch after years of delays even as Tehran faces increased international pressure over its atomic activity.

Iran will probably hail the event as further evidence that its nuclear programme is designed to generate electricity and that the West is wrong to accuse it of seeking to develop weapons from nuclear technology.

Aug 20, 2010

Q&A-Should the West worry about Iran’s Bushehr plant?

Aug 20 (Reuters) – Russia is to start loading fuel into
Iran’s first nuclear power station at Bushehr on Saturday,
signalling its launch after years of delays even as Tehran faces
increased international pressure over its atomic activity.

Iran will probably hail the event as further evidence that
its nuclear programme is designed to generate electricity and
that the West is wrong to accuse it of seeking to develop
weapons from nuclear technology.

Jul 6, 2010

New sanctions seen hurting Iran businesses in Dubai

DUBAI, July 6 (Reuters) – New sanctions on Iran are expected
to complicate life further for Iranian businesses based in the
United Arab Emirates, home to the regional trade hub Dubai, and
may force some to close down, one of their representatives said.

Morteza Masoumzadeh, vice president of the local Iranian
Business Council, also told Reuters he believed the UAE
authorities would impose more restrictions after the latest wave
of international punitive measures against Iran.

Jul 2, 2010
via The Great Debate UK

Friendly Cameron and King get mix right for now

By Ian Campbell

–  The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are their own –

Just in government and David Cameron’s relationships are in question. Eyebrows have been raised about the prime minister’s friendship with an Old Lady, sometimes known as the Bank of England. The affection appears reciprocated by Mervyn King, the Bank’s governor. But to think the Old Lady’s independence is compromised is probably to take things too far. The bank’s current low interest rate policy looks more than just a political favour.