Key political risks to watch in Iran
DUBAI, July 1 (Reuters) – Iran’s escalating nuclear dispute
with the West and a plan to slash food and fuel subsidies will
further test the nerve and authority of hardline leaders who
dealt sternly with unrest after last year’s disputed election.
The Islamic Republic seems as determined as ever to press
ahead with its atomic activities despite economic pain caused by
a U.S.-led drive to isolate the major oil producer, including
new U.N. measures targeting the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Factbox: Key political risks to watch in Iran
DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s escalating nuclear dispute with the West and a plan to slash food and fuel subsidies will further test the nerve and authority of hardline leaders who dealt sternly with unrest after last year’s disputed election.
The Islamic Republic seems as determined as ever to press ahead with its atomic activities despite economic pain caused by a U.S.-led drive to isolate the major oil producer, including new U.N. measures targeting the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Bourse in sanctions-hit Iran seeks investors abroad
DUBAI, June 20 (Reuters) – Iran may be facing growing
international isolation but the head of the Islamic state’s
stock exchange argues privatisations and low valuations create
attractive opportunities for foreign investors.
Less than two weeks after the U.N. Security Council imposed
a fourth round of punitive measures on Iran over its nuclear
programme, senior executives of the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE)
travelled to Dubai in a bid to lure new capital to the market.
Iran refuses to halt any nuclear enrichment-envoy
VIENNA, June 11 (Reuters) – Iran would only consider halting
higher-grade nuclear enrichment if it first received fuel for a
medical reactor from major powers, a senior official said on
Friday, a condition unlikely to be accepted by the West.
The comments by Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s envoy to the
U.N. nuclear watchdog, underlined the Islamic Republic’s
defiance in the face of increased international pressure over a
nuclear programme the West fears is aimed at making bombs.
Arab states target Israel in U.N. nuclear debate
VIENNA (Reuters) – Arab nations backed by Iran urged Israel to join a global anti-nuclear arms pact at a rare and divisive U.N. atomic watchdog debate a day after new sanctions were passed against Tehran.
Israel, presumed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear weapons arsenal, condemned the push at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting on Thursday as being fuelled by countries which question the Jewish state’s existence.
Factbox: Key political risks to watch in Iran
By Fredrik Dahl
(Reuters) – Iran’s escalating nuclear dispute with the West and a plan to slash food and fuel subsidies will further test the nerve and authority of hardline leaders who dealt sternly with unrest after last year’s disputed election.
The Islamic Republic seems as determined as ever to press ahead with its atomic activities despite economic pain caused by a U.S.-led drive to isolate the major oil producer, including new U.N. measures targeting the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
Powers dismiss Iran fuel offer before sanctions vote
VIENNA (Reuters) – Big powers voiced deep concerns on Wednesday about Iran’s offer to send some of its nuclear material abroad, hours before an expected U.N. Security Council vote to slap new sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
The litany of objections from Russia, France and the United States dealt a major setback for the plan brokered by Turkey and Brazil last month even though Western diplomats insisted the response did not amount to an outright rejection.
Key political risks to watch in Iran
DUBAI, June 1 (Reuters) – Iran’s nuclear dispute with the
West and a plan to slash food and fuel subsidies will further
test the nerve and authority of hardline leaders who dealt
sternly with unrest after last year’s disputed election.
The Islamic Republic seems as determined as ever to press
ahead with its atomic activities despite economic pain caused by
a U.S.-led drive to isolate the major oil producer, including
measures targeting the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
New sanctions would hurt but not cripple Iran
VIENNA/DUBAI (Reuters) – A draft plan for new U.N. sanctions seeks to squeeze Iran’s banking and shipping sectors and strengthen curbs on military and nuclear work, but crippling steps were passed over in favor of big power unity.
Western powers do seem to have won backing for an extended arms embargo in the draft Security Council resolution leaked on Tuesday, a step diplomats said Moscow had earlier objected to and which may be a tough setback for Iran if states stick to it.
UK chancellor has mixed message for gilt investors
– Ian Campbell is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
The UK sounds Greek again. Britain’s new government is finding skeletons in the fiscal cupboard. George Osborne, the incoming chancellor of the exchequer, is appointing an independent watchdog to check the numbers out. The gilt market perhaps ought to recoil at the revelation that things are even worse than thought. But it’s more likely to look on the bright side: coalition honeymoon, transparency and rectitude to come.
UK government bonds will for now probably continue defying threats that kill in the Aegean. A record peacetime deficit, an inflation rate of 3.4 percent, a plunging pound: no matter, UK 10-year paper has risen in value by about 2 percent this year and yields a miserly 3.8 percent. But while Osborne’s deficit-cutting commitment will reassure, the medium-term risks to gilts remain great.
Gilts’ appeal is largely relative. UK debt levels have worsened appallingly — but are not yet appalling. Britain, like the United States, is rightly judged to have a more adaptable economy than the euro zone’s. The pound can weaken, helping competitiveness and growth and therefore favouring rebalancing of the government’s accounts.
But the growth that can save is not strongly in evidence now. Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, has warned of possible growth disappointment as fiscal cuts kick in. Ironically this is another factor supporting gilts. Inflation is up, but is expected to be dragged down by economic weakness. That means interest rates will probably remain low, favouring bonds.
Still, gilts investors cannot be complacent. The fiscal deficit is huge but money-printing — quantitative easing — exceeded it in the year to March. Spencer Dale, the BoE’s chief economist, speculated last week that QE had taken about one percentage point off gilt yields. Unless the economy worsens, the BoE is unlikely to resume gilt purchases. And one day it must start selling its gilt mountain.
There are other big risks. The coalition honeymooners may fall out. The economic turnaround will be extremely hard to generate. And Osborne’s fiscal surgery may half kill the patient. For a UK that has much to do to stop its debt spiralling, gilt returns look poor. But the remarkable bonds may smile through the honeymoon all the same.
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