West seeks to pressure Iran at U.N. nuclear meet
VIENNA (Reuters) – Western powers hope to win Russian and Chinese backing for rebuking Iran at the U.N. nuclear agency next week over Tehran’s failure to address mounting fears that it is secretly bent on acquiring nuclear weapons capability, diplomats say.
Seeking to ward off any such diplomatic action, Iran has warned its opponents and others against making “provocative statements” at the March 5-9 meeting of the 35-nation governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Western envoys say the lack of progress at talks this year between the IAEA and Iran and Tehran’s acceleration of sensitive atomic activity mean the board should respond to the country’s defiance of increased international pressure.
But they make clear they want broad support for any new board resolution and especially from Russia and China, which have backed four rounds of U.N. sanctions since 2006 but criticized unilateral Western punitive steps against Iran.
An IAEA resolution, while containing no concrete measures, would be aimed at sending a united message to Iran that it must stop stonewalling the U.N. agency’s investigation into possible military dimensions to its nuclear program, diplomats say.
“We think there needs to be a resolution that makes clear … that Iran needs to do more, a lot more, to comply with the agency’s requirements,” a senior Western official said.
He said Iran’s lack of cooperation with a senior IAEA team, during two rounds of meetings in Tehran in January and February, represented a “gigantic slap in the face” for the IAEA.
Third time lucky for nuclear watchdog in North Korea?
VIENNA (Reuters) – North Korea’s agreement to allow inspections of its Yongbyon nuclear plant is a welcome emergence from isolation, but far from enough to reassure the world it will give up its ambitions for nuclear weapons, diplomats and experts say.
North Korea said Wednesday it would suspend nuclear tests, long-range missile launches and enrichment of uranium at its Yongbyon facility and allow back International Atomic Energy Agency personnel. The surprise turn of events also brings U.S. food aid for the impoverished state and makes possible the resumption of six-nation nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.
It was unclear how much scope for inspections the Vienna-based U.N. agency would get – the North has limited their access during two previous periods when it allowed inspectors in.
And Western analysts said the Asian country may simply continue covert atomic activity elsewhere.
“I assume North Korea would try to limit the IAEA’s role as much as possible,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, an expert on nuclear proliferation. “North Korea has always been suspicious of the IAEA.”
Like other Western diplomats, a European based in the Austrian capital said the North’s agreement to let international monitors back to Yongbyon was a “very positive step” as the complex was the primary focus of its nuclear program.
But, the envoy added: “Who knows what might have been built off site.”
IAEA worried about “activities” at Iran site
VIENNA (Reuters) – The U.N. nuclear watchdog believes unspecified “activities” may be taking place at Iran’s Parchin military facility that make its request to visit the site more urgent, Western diplomats said on Wednesday.
It was unclear what kind of activities the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) suspected, or whether it thought Iran might be trying to clean the site or conceal something ahead of a possible visit. Diplomats said the agency was monitoring the site via satellite images.
One diplomat present at a closed-door briefing for IAEA member states in Vienna on Wednesday at which the disclosure was made quoted IAEA chief inspector Herman Nackaerts as saying there “may be some ongoing activities at Parchin which add urgency to why we want to go.”
According to another diplomat at the briefing, Nackaerts said the agency had also received information about the issue from a member state, without giving details. Nackaerts was reportedly asked by one of the diplomats present whether Iran might be trying to clean the Parchin site.
“I think some of the reports we have heard about possible sanitation of the site (are) very concerning,” said a third, Western diplomat. “It is very clear that Iran doesn’t want the agency to go to Parchin because it has something to hide.”
The IAEA was not immediately available for comment.
In Iran, a senior official said it was up to Iran’s military to decide if U.N. inspectors would be allowed to visit Parchin.
Iran may be “struggling” with new nuclear machines
VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran is still relying on old technology to expand its nuclear program, in what may be a sign it is having difficulties developing modern machines that could speed up production of potential bomb material.
A report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog last week said Iran was significantly stepping up its uranium enrichment, a finding that sent oil prices higher on fears tensions between with the West could escalate into military conflict.
Israel, has threatened to launch pre-emptive strikes to prevent Iran getting the bomb and Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said Tehran’s continued technological progress mean it could soon pass into a “zone of immunity,” suggesting time was running out for an effective military intervention.
But, contrary to some Western media reports in the run-up to Friday’s International Atomic Energy Agency report, Iran does not yet seem ready to deploy advanced enrichment equipment for large-scale production, despite years of testing.
Instead, the IAEA document showed Iran was preparing to install thousands more centrifuges based on an erratic and outdated design, both in its main enrichment plant at Natanz and in a smaller facility at Fordow buried deep underground.
“It appears that they are still struggling with the advanced centrifuges,” said Olli Heinonen, a former chief nuclear inspector for the Vienna-based U.N. body.
“We do not know whether the reasons for delays are lack of raw materials or design problems,” he said.
Iran uranium “discrepancy” still unresolved – IAEA
VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran has yet to clarify a discrepancy in uranium quantities at a Tehran research site, a U.N. nuclear watchdog report said, after measurements by international inspectors last year failed to match the amount declared by the laboratory.
The United States has expressed concern the material may have been diverted to suspected weapons-related research activity.
U.N. inspectors have sought information from Iran to help explain the issue after their inventory last August of natural uranium metal and process waste at the research facility in Tehran measured 19.8 kg less than the laboratory’s count.
Experts say such a small quantity of natural uranium could not be used for a bomb, but that the metal could be relevant to weapons-linked tests.
“The discrepancy remains to be clarified,” said the latest quarterly report on Iran by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), issued to member states on Friday evening.
The 11-page IAEA document also showed that Iran had sharply increased its uranium enrichment drive. The report’s findings, which added to fears of escalating tension between Iran and the West, sent oil prices higher.
Iran says it is enriching uranium only as fuel for nuclear power plants, not atomic weapons, but its refusal to curb the activity has drawn increasingly tough sanctions aimed at its oil exports.
Iran has expanded sensitive nuclear work: U.N. agency
VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran has sharply stepped up its controversial uranium enrichment drive, the U.N. nuclear agency said on Friday in a report that will further inflame Israeli fears the Islamic Republic is pushing ahead with atomic bomb plans.
The nuclear watchdog also gave details of its mission to Tehran this week where Iran failed to respond to allegations of research relevant to developing nuclear arms – a blow to the possible resumption of diplomatic talks that could help calm worries about a new war in the Middle East.
“The Agency continues to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a quarterly report about Iran issued to member states.
Iran’s increase of work that can have both civilian and military purposes underlines that it has no intention of backing down in a long-running dispute with the West that has sparked fears of war.
U.S. crude futures extended a rally on the IAEA’s findings, which added to concerns that Iran’s tensions with the West would escalate. It gained more than $2 to hit the highest intraday price in nine months.
The White House said the IAEA report confirmed that Iran was violating U.N. Security Council resolutions with its nuclear enrichment program.
“When combined with its continued stonewalling of international inspectors, Iran’s actions demonstrate why Iran has failed to convince the international community that its nuclear program is peaceful,” White House National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement.
Iran wants more UN nuclear talks after Tehran stalemate
VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran wants more talks with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, its ambassador to the body said, despite what one Western envoy called “very long and fruitless” negotiations this week on addressing growing suspicions about Tehran’s atomic activities.
The relatively upbeat comments by Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were in stark contrast to a terse statement issued by the U.N. agency on Wednesday after the two days of discussions in Tehran.
“Our position is that we are going to continue the talks for cooperation with the agency and we hope that this process will be successfully going on,” said Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh.
“We need a quiet environment, a calm environment to continue our professional work with the agency,” he told Reuters late on Thursday.
The IAEA, a Vienna-based U.N. agency, said no further meetings with Iran are planned, signaling frustration at the lack of progress in two rounds of talks this year.
The setback increased worries about a downward spiral towards conflict between Iran and the West, and sent oil prices higher.
Western diplomats suspect Iran is merely seeking “talks about talks” in an attempt to ease outside pressure on the Islamic state while it presses ahead with nuclear work which the United States and its allies believe has military links.
Europe picks up as Commission predicts recession
Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
There is a time lag in forecasts, especially those of big institutions like the European Commission. By the time the Commission has compiled, computed, considered and finally downgraded its forecasts to recession – it happened on Thursday – the data has started to point the other way.
The Commission is gloomier than it was last November. Then it forecast euro zone GDP growth of 0.5 percent in 2012. Today it sees contraction of 0.3 percent. But except for the euro periphery, where growth prospects remain bad and the dangers of renewed crisis high, last year’s so-called soft patch looks to be departing.
Germany’s Ifo institute reported that its index of business confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month in February, to its best level since last July. German companies’ assessments of current conditions and prospects for six months ahead are both above their long-term averages. “Positive impulses expected” was the Ifo’s comment on export prospects.
In the UK, there was corroboration of a healthy pick up in trade. The Confederation of British Industry reported that UK manufacturers expect “solid output growth” over the next three months, with export orders showing “a similar upturn” to that in broader production. Half the UK’s exports go to Europe. European demand must be improving.
None of this means that the euro zone crisis is over. The Commission’s forecasts of 2012 GDP declines of between 4.4 percent and 1 percent in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain are plausible. The finances of the recession-beset periphery will remain frail, the risks of renewed crisis high. But the latest signs are that the European core is proving able to get on with business and trade even as the periphery ails.
Iran seeks to boost nuclear work in bunker: diplomats
VIENNA (Reuters) – Iran is believed to be carrying out preparations to expand nuclear activity deep inside a mountain, diplomats say, in a further sign of defiance in the face of intensifying Western pressure to curb its sensitive uranium enrichment drive.
Increased capacity at the Fordow underground site would probably heighten Western suspicion of Iran’s intentions, after it last month started refining uranium there to a level that cuts the time it would need for any nuclear weapons bid.
A senior team of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) failed again this week to get the Islamic state to start addressing their mounting concerns about its nuclear work and returned empty handed to Vienna after two days of talks in Iran.
The setback increased worries about a downward spiral towards conflict between the Islamic Republic and the West, and sent oil prices to a nine-month high.
The U.N. agency is now putting the finishing touches to its next report on Iran, expected to include information on the Tehran talks as well as more detail on the status of the Fordow plant near the Shi’ite Muslim holy city of Qom.
“I think we will see a jump in the potential state of readiness of the facility,” one Vienna-based envoy said.
Fordow is of particular concern for the West and Israel as Iran is shifting the most controversial aspect of its nuclear work, refining uranium to a level that takes it significantly closer to potential bomb material, to the site.
Gold’s bull run is tired but maybe not over
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Gold, it seems, can have it both ways. Its latest charge to a three-month high is ascribed both to relief at a Greek bailout and to fear it won’t work. The bubbling precious metal has become simultaneously a speculative, risk-on play and a safe haven. That duality should keep the gold bull alive for a little while yet.
The golden beast is showing signs of fatigue. A three-month high leaves it 8 percent down on its September peak. Demand for gold rose in 2011 – but by just 0.4 percent on 2010. Ultra-high prices are weighing down jewellery consumption. India, traditionally the largest consumer of gold for jewellery, imported 44 percent less gold in the fourth quarter of 2011 than a year earlier as the rupee plunged. China overtook India as the biggest gold importer, but its demand was up a meagre 3 percent year-on-year.
Weakness in jewellery demand is in fact not new. It is down by a quarter over the past decade, from an annual average of 2,587 tonnes in 2002-04 to 1,931 tonnes in 2009-11. Extremely high prices are deterring consumers. Industrial demand has been stable, at about one tenth of the total. But it is demand for gold as an investment that has soared, rising from just 341 tonnes in 2003 to an annual average of 1,604 tonnes in 2010-11.
Sustained dollar weakness, zero interest rates and abundant money printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have all boosted the appeal of gold and reduced the opportunity cost of holding it. The September price peak of $1,920 per ounce coincided with fears of a euro zone collapse and additional money-printing in the United States. When paper money cannot be trusted, gold seems priceless.
Normality is the gold bull’s enemy. Better American data, which has reduced the likelihood of more quantitative easing, and a firmer dollar are negative signals. Rising U.S. interest rates will eventually be the precious metal’s nemesis. But that day is still distant and euro zone crisis risks intensifying again, sending investors gold’s way. Gold’s bull run is tired but not quite over.



