Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: Results of state elections a key driver

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets had been on a roller-coaster ride but closed weak for the third week in the row with the Nifty in the 5950-6000 range providing support.

A hint from the U.S. Federal Reserve on tapering its bond-buying programme was enough to spook the markets. Though this is expected in the first quarter of the new year, it remains to be seen whether chairman-elect Janet Yellen’s dovish stance would postpone it further.

Closer home, state elections kicked off with Chhattisgarh recording a 75 percent turnout in the second phase. The elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi will have a significant bearing on sentiment in the run-up to general elections due in May.

U.S. markets touched a new high based on favourable economic data but the euro zone slipped with PMI dropping to 51.5 from 51.9. China performed well on the back of last week’s announcement of financial and economic reforms.

Mall developers take to revenue-sharing to woo retailers

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Over the last five to seven years, the retail segment in India has evolved towards a more organized pricing structure. After the real estate boom of 2005-06, when property prices increased to as much as 40 percent of a retailer’s operating costs, developers seemed more willing to share the business risk. They moved from a per-square-foot rental model to versions of the minimum guarantee and/or the revenue share model. Most investment-grade properties in major cities now follow this model, unlike shopping centres in smaller cities.

In the original model, rentals varied depending on the store and location. But with increased brand awareness and rising vacancies, developers saw the need for a customized tenancy mix, adopting efficient mall management techniques while protecting retailer interests to maximize their own earnings.

Not a smooth ride for the markets

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

There was subdued excitement over the Sensex hitting a record high in a special trading session on Diwali. It had taken the market quite some time to cross its previous peak in 2008. This was also the case for most other markets, although they had recovered a little earlier.

The Indian market was slow to catch up because, apart from the international conditions, there were domestic problems that affected the health of the economy.

Leveraging the digital revolution

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

We live in an age where emerging technologies are narrowing the divide between humans and machines. As features of mobile phones become more customized and complex, they cease to be just devices of communication. Mobile phones now store more personal information than ever before. They are increasingly being perceived as personalized devices that enhance our lives.

We are also living in times when remote robotic surgeries and online classrooms are transforming healthcare and education in ways never imagined before. We are truly living in a digital age.

India Markets Weekahead: Invest with an eye on the exit door

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets touched new highs this week but the usual euphoria was missing as it wasn’t a broad-based rally. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said the worst may be over for India as the current account deficit is getting under control while a bumper harvest could help rein in food inflation and boost the rural economy. Hopes of a revival and the mirage of green shoots coupled with international liquidity due to delayed U.S. Federal Reserve tapering has fuelled this rally, which is expected to spread to other sectors that are comparatively under-valued.

But the ground-level situation is in stark contrast to the optimism in the indexes. October auto sales were flat to negative for a number of automobile majors despite huge discounts. The festive season hasn’t spurred sales in white goods either, as food inflation reduced the disposable income of the middle class.

India-Pakistan border flare-up a zero-sum game

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

At places along the Line of Control (LoC), barely a wire separates the Indian soldier and his Pakistani counterpart. The genesis of the recent flare-up was the killing of five Indian soldiers on the Indian side of the LoC. The media blitz in Delhi found more fodder with a spike in infiltration attempts and exchange of fire beyond the LoC at posts across the international border.

Need to rebalance RBI’s interest structure

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

In its mid-quarterly monetary policy review last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made some hasty changes in the interest structure. The repo rate was raised possibly because of the rise in inflation and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate was cut after the rupee recovered against the dollar. The interest structure is still lopsided with short rates exceeding long rates. This anomaly needs to be corrected.

It is believed that the economy is susceptible to a rundown when short rates exceed long rates. A further slowdown, in any case, needs to be prevented and is quite feasible since the compelling conditions that necessitated an interest hike have been contained. There is now enough room for the RBI to restore balance.

Invisible hand of market at work

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

India’s economic situation is at least grave, if not exactly in dire straits. Growth is at a decadal low, consumer inflation is persistently high, jobs have never been as scarce, the currency is volatile and the investment cycle is showing no signs of revival. Many of these problems are a result of bad policy and global economic conditions, but several are also the outcome of a natural economic cycle.

Rupee should not harden further

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The rupee has recovered over the past few weeks after falling to a record low of 68.85 per dollar in August. After a period of unease, the finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India can now take it a little easy. But care needs to be taken that the rupee is not driven up further.

Speculation about the end of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme in May affected global currencies and the rupee was not alone in this predicament. The announcement had created a scare about the tapering of quantitative easing. That would have dried up liquidity that the market had got used to. The Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and the Indian rupee were the principal losers.

India Markets Weekahead: Investors should wait for a correction to buy

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets continued a strong rally to close the week around 3 percent higher. After the partial U.S. shutdown was confirmed and triggered speculation over the postponement of QE tapering, a weakening dollar and the rupee’s subsequent appreciation also helped lift the mood.

Though the current account deficit for the first quarter was a better-than-expected 4.9 percent, IIP data that came in after market hours on Friday showed India’s industrial production had slowed to a dismal 0.6 percent in August. This suggests that buoyancy in the stock markets was driven by liquidity and sentiment, while things are different on the ground.

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