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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: New highs will be more robust

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

By Ambareesh Baliga

With consensus building for the Nifty to cross 6,100 and move into a new range, buoyed by the better-than-expected results for Reliance Industries, we saw the markets correcting with mid-caps and small-caps cracking. The markets recovered on Friday to close the week with marginal gains at 6,074.

The pattern in July, August and November was similar, with the markets defying consensus, taking us by surprise on the downside and breaking out of the range on the top.

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram continued to assure the markets with positive comments on personal taxation, a fiscal deficit he is still confident of maintaining, and the introduction of long-awaited insurance and pension bills in the budget session. He was on a four-nation tour to woo foreign investors as FIIs poured in $350 million last week.

from Davos Notebook:

Where emerging markets are headed next

In its video presentation "Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long-term Growth," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that China will soon surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy, and will account for 28 percent of global gross domestic product by 2030. The OECD also predicts that by 2060 the combined GDP of China and India will overtake that of the OECD economies. Meanwhile, Bain estimates that by 2020 emerging economies will account for two-thirds of global economic growth.

Without doubt, emerging countries are showing more resilience and promise than established economies in the Americas and the euro zone.

Taking the Indian economy to a higher orbit

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Reuters)

Space research in India has come of age in the last five decades and the country is now in the elite club of countries capable of launching satellites for commercial purposes. What made this possible? An environment made conducive by government policy, objectives clearly spelled out, availability of funds, a homegrown talent pool and international tech support. Can a similar strategy work to take the Indian economy and the capital market to stratospheric levels?

Parallel between cash transfer schemes and health insurance claims

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Reuters)

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the direct cash transfer scheme is a money saver for the government and the taxpayer. A direct parallel is the way insurance companies handle claims in health insurance plans.

India Markets Weekahead – Still time to tank up for a pre-budget rally

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty has crossed 6,000 levels while the Sensex breached the psychological barrier of 20,000 to touch a two-year high — triggered by an overdrive of government action, encouraging macro numbers, corporate results and no bad news internationally.

India Markets Weekahead – Company results key for market direction

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

Infosys stumped Indian markets again but for a change — positively. Recent management comments had built expectations of underperformance which led to cautious to negative views on the stock. Institutional investors were light on Infosys whereas the more adventurous speculators were short. And we were all caught on the wrong foot when the company declared a revenue growth as well as a net profit much better than consensus expectations.

Time to create a holistic mobile ecosystem

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

Mobile phones have transcended various phases of evolution since the time they began their journey. They have come a long way from being simple feature phones, which were meant for making calls and sending text messages.

Concerns about current account deficit

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

The current account deficit (CAD) which touched 5.4 percent of the GDP is a matter of deep concern. It is well beyond the 3 percent danger mark which was crossed more than 18 months back and caused the rupee to depreciate.

India Markets Weekahead – Set for new high with no roadblock in sight

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A resolution for the U.S. “fiscal cliff” helped the markets cross the psychological Nifty benchmark of 6,000 to close the week up 1.82 percent at 6,016.

Though I expected a spirited rally, what we witnessed last week is a strong consolidation around 6,000 which could form a solid bottom for the next leg of the rally. This is also facilitating the entry of domestic retail investors which is visible in the mid-cap and small-cap volume and performance. The BSE small-cap index moved up 3.71 percent whereas the BSE mid-cap index gained 3.13 percent.

India Markets in 2013: ball is in government’s court

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

If calendar year 2012 was the year of scams in India which helped induce some much needed government reforms, the year 2013 is expected to be a year of hope and expectation for India and India Inc. There are expectations on better political governance, fall in inflation levels and hence interest rates, creation of an investment friendly business environment and lots more. It’s also the year with the last finance budget before the 2014 general elections.

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