Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead – Set for new high with no roadblock in sight

A resolution for the U.S. “fiscal cliff” helped the markets cross the psychological Nifty benchmark of 6,000 to close the week up 1.82 percent at 6,016.

Though I expected a spirited rally, what we witnessed last week is a strong consolidation around 6,000 which could form a solid bottom for the next leg of the rally. This is also facilitating the entry of domestic retail investors which is visible in the mid-cap and small-cap volume and performance. The BSE small-cap index moved up 3.71 percent whereas the BSE mid-cap index gained 3.13 percent.

The next hump could be the “debt ceiling” which needs to be tackled by the end of February.

The UPA government continues with its fiscal prudence measures and is expected to go ahead with a diesel and LPG price hike which will bring down the fiscal deficit in the coming year. This led to the rally continuing for oil marketing companies.

India Markets in 2013: ball is in government’s court

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

If calendar year 2012 was the year of scams in India which helped induce some much needed government reforms, the year 2013 is expected to be a year of hope and expectation for India and India Inc. There are expectations on better political governance, fall in inflation levels and hence interest rates, creation of an investment friendly business environment and lots more. It’s also the year with the last finance budget before the 2014 general elections.

The wait for the rate cut

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

At its mid-quarter review on Jan. 18, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) did not cut the repo rate and also left the CRR unchanged. But it raised hopes that policy easing can follow in the fourth quarter.

Signs of recovery in real estate but challenges ahead

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

The year 2012 has been a rollercoaster of sorts. Inflation remained above comfort levels, the GDP growth rate slipped and so did the industrial output. The Reserve Bank of India doggedly kept the repo rate unchanged, barring once in April.

The year the Indian economy stalled

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

The year 2012 has seen the worst an emerging market economy can tolerate. Had the government been a little less reticent and more proactive, growth would not have dropped this low in spite of the economy being mauled by inflation. Other emerging market economies did exactly that.

India to ring in 2013 in the mobile sector

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not those of Thomson Reuters)

For many of us in the mobile industry, 2012 has been a year with a lot to celebrate and a lot to be concerned about. Restrictions and regulations are growing. As we all know, that can cut both ways: too much regulation and we might see constraints on growth.

A world of schoolgirls

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Thomson Reuters)

One of the more difficult questions I found myself being asked when I was a United Nations under-secretary-general, especially when addressing a general audience, was: “What is the single most important thing that can be done to improve the world?”

India Markets Weekahead – A breakout expected before the year ends

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets struggled to hold beyond Nifty levels of 5900 and closed the week 0.47 percent down, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Uncertainty over the banking regulations bill seems to have overshadowed better-than-expected wholesale price index-based inflation data in November. Industrial production soared by 8.2 percent, surprising analysts and sending signals that green shoots of economic recovery are visible.

An affordable house for Mr Aspirer

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Can the aspirations of 100 million people be ignored?

Consider this. The 2011 Census said 31 percent of India’s population is classified as urban. That’s 380 million people. The Census also said 18 percent of Indian households lack basic amenities — no access to electricity, water, drainage and toilets.

Nifty to consolidate after crossing psychological barrier of 6000

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High drama in parliament and volatility in the markets, albeit within a tight range, summarizes the action for the week.

Most in the analyst fraternity including myself expected the Nifty to cross the psychological barrier of 6000 after the FDI vote in parliament, but markets defied consensus once again and ended up a paltry 0.4 percent for the week at 5907.

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