Expert Zone
Straight from the Specialists
Why the budget is under stress
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
In the first seven months, the fiscal deficit crossed three-fourths of the target set for the year. This was entirely because the liberal expenditure on current account was not covered by the revenue the exchequer earned. It is quite on the cards that fiscal deficit for the year will exceed the target.
The fiscal deficit has been a cause of worry for most finance ministers. That is because the budgets they present to parliament are inevitably overcome by political rather than economic considerations. That is what has put many of the governments in Europe on the brink of sovereign default.
Even the U.S. credit rating was downgraded by S&P precisely because the fiscal deficit was excessive. India is no exception.
India Market Weekahead: Use opportunity to partially book profits
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Markets surged over 2 pct during the week and are up 14 pct YTD driven by liquidity inflows from foreign investors, a CRR cut by the RBI, hopes of interest rate cuts in coming months, positive economic data and the government’s intention to kick-start the process on the policy front. The rally was unaffected by the court verdict on the 2G scam and the indices resumed an upward march.
India Market Weekahead: Time to take profits but increase exposure on correction
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The markets extended a winning streak and gained 3 pct during the week driven by strong inflows from foreign institutional investors, a decent set of quarterly numbers from key companies, positive news flows on the policy front and the RBI decision to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points.
International workers and social security regulations in India
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The movement of employees across countries has been a growing trend in recent years with increasing multinational presence of companies.
So how much is Kodak worth now?
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Kodak, one of the world’s best-known brands, is disappearing. Its products are obsolete; the company didn’t manage to change quickly enough.
Egypt’s unfinished revolution will succeed
By Mohamed A. El-Erian (The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
NEWPORT BEACH – A year ago, Egyptians of all ages and religions took to the streets and, in just 18 days of relatively peaceful protests, removed a regime that had ruled over them with an iron fist for 30 years. Empowered by an impressive yet leaderless movement – largely of young people – the country’s citizens overcame decades of fear to reclaim a voice in their future.
While much has been achieved since those euphoric times, Egypt’s revolution today is, unfortunately, incomplete and imperfect – so much so that some now doubt whether it will fully succeed. I believe that the doubters will be proven wrong.
Gains seen for Taliban as post-ISAF era looms in Afghanistan
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
A fear embedded deep in the Pakistani security establishment’s psyche has always been that of a successful conventional military thrust by India from across its eastern borders. This is aggravated by their assessment that Pakistan lacks the geographical depth to absorb the onslaught; its logistics dumps being especially vulnerable on account of the inability to place them at an adequate depth. The answer, often articulated, is of a pliant regime in its western neighbour Afghanistan providing the strategic geographical depth that Pakistan needs.
Vodafone ruling will boost foreign investor confidence
(The views expressed in this column are the authors’ own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Amidst dwindling Indian governance on a variety of fronts, the Supreme Court has always been the differentiator. The court-monitored investigations into the 2G scam come to mind, which as most would agree, would prove the inflection point for India’s polity and governance.
India Market Weekahead: RBI policy holds the key
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Markets extended a rally for the third consecutive week led by strong FII inflows. FIIs have pumped in $1.2 billion so far this year as risk sentiment stabilised after several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and overwhelming demand. Improvement in U.S. economic data, rupee appreciation and December quarter earnings exceeding lower expectations helped the market rally nearly 8 pct in three weeks.
The limits of the Pakistan-China alliance
(The views expressed in this column are the authors’ own and do not represent those of Reuters)
By Lisa Curtis and Derek Scissors
In the wake of the U.S. raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound last May and deteriorating relations between Islamabad and Washington, Pakistani leaders have sought to play up their country’s relations with China, touting Beijing as an alternative partner to Washington. However, China’s concerns about the future stability and development of Pakistan will limit the extent to which China will bail Pakistan out of its current economic difficulties, and the degree to which China will seek to drive a wedge between Islamabad and Washington.
