Expert Zone
Straight from the Specialists
The limits of the Pakistan-China alliance
(The views expressed in this column are the authors’ own and do not represent those of Reuters)
By Lisa Curtis and Derek Scissors
In the wake of the U.S. raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound last May and deteriorating relations between Islamabad and Washington, Pakistani leaders have sought to play up their country’s relations with China, touting Beijing as an alternative partner to Washington. However, China’s concerns about the future stability and development of Pakistan will limit the extent to which China will bail Pakistan out of its current economic difficulties, and the degree to which China will seek to drive a wedge between Islamabad and Washington.
Chinese security interests in Pakistan are driven primarily by China’s desire to contain India. Beijing has built up Pakistan’s conventional military as well as nuclear and missile capabilities over the years to help keep India off balance and focused on threats emanating from Pakistan. China’s concrete economic and political interests in Pakistan itself are not that extensive. China’s economic commitment to Pakistan, for instance, is not especially impressive in size and has shown clear limits. China has shown little interest in propping up Pakistan’s economy and has not provided substantial economic aid, even during times of need.
In the past, U.S. officials have worried that pushing Pakistan too hard to crack down on terrorists could drive Islamabad more firmly into Beijing’s embrace. But China’s lukewarm response to Pakistan’s recent overtures demonstrates that there are limits to what Islamabad can expect from its “all-weather friend” — a term often used by Pakistani officials when referring to China. While China has an interest in maintaining strong security ties with Pakistan, the notion that Chinese ties could serve as a replacement for U.S. ties has been overstated by Pakistani officials. The U.S. has provided considerably higher amounts of economic and military aid to Pakistan over the past decade and also serves as a link to the rest of the Western nations, which otherwise would likely be inclined to sanction Pakistan for its nuclear and terrorism activities.
Global Economics: When China is not just China
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) relationship with Iran receives a good deal of attention. As the U.S. considers how to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program short of military action, the PRC is considered vital in ensuring economic sanctions are effective. But it has been difficult to win Chinese cooperation in applying sanctions. One mistake the U.S. may have made is treating China as a unified entity.
China’s economic data (still) not credible
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
China today announced that GDP growth for 2011 slowed to 9.2 pct. Over the coming days and weeks, there will be a stream of pontificating about what this means. There’s a good chance that everyone involved will be pontificating about nonsense.
Why do we buy what we buy?
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Let’s cut out all the marketing jargon and adspeak. Consumers (that means people, you and me) try to buy rationally, on price – it’s cheaper, on quality – it lasts longer, on service – they won’t let you down when things go wrong. And sometimes it is genuinely possible to make rational choices when we buy things. Mostly though it isn’t anymore, because products and services are increasingly similar in their rational characteristics. If they are poorer quality or more expensive than a direct competitor, they die.
Start topping up portfolio on correction
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Indian equities have posted a good show so far this year with gains of around 5 pct. Receding euro zone debt worries and a stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production in November have strengthened investors’ sentiment. Food inflation continued to show a negative trend which also aided sentiment.
Lack of retirement planning options
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Unlike people in developed nations such as the U.S. and Europe, people in India are known for their conservative habit of saving. The need for regular income after retirement is a concern that haunts most Indians.
Fallout of recession in euro zone
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
It will not be before February that the euro zone GDP numbers are out. The available information so far indicates the economy is already in recession. This will have serious consequences for all countries, including India.
Volatile but undecided markets, awaiting cues
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
Trading for the New Year began on a positive note after the government’s decision to allow foreign nationals to invest directly in the country’s listed companies and after data showed a sharp improvement in manufacturing activity in December.
Fiscal deficit to kick up growth
(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)
In the first quarter of 2012, the government will be over-crowding the financial market to mop up nearly a trillion rupees. It is forced to borrow mainly because the expected revenue did not come in while the expected expenditures had been met.
Rate wars to commence?
(The views expressed in this column are the authors’ own and do not represent those of Reuters)
By Robin Roy and Sanjoy Majumder
Indian banks are facing a dual challenge. Monetary tightening by the RBI is already impacting the banks’ margins and due to an imperfect monetary transmission system, banks are not able to pass off higher lending rates to the borrower across the board.
