Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: RBI policy review to be catalyst for markets

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

This was a listless week with the Nifty in the same band of 5640 and 5720 as the previous week, closing about 20 points lower at 5664. The festival  season has begun but the mood on the street remains cautious.

There were several car launches by Maruti, Ford, Tata and General Motors but by far the most successful one was Maruti Alto 800, an entry-level vehicle which clocked bookings of over 24,000 in a week.

Commuters walk past the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai February 28, 2011. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Files

The political heat shifted to the opposition camp with Nitin Gadkari, president of the Bharatiya Janata Party, embroiled in a controversy relating to a web of shell companies which purportedly invested in his Purti Power and Sugar Ltd. The Congress-led UPA government can breathe easy till the winter session unless some new expose puts the focus back on them.

RBI policy: Cut in repo rate imperative

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is fixated on inflation and with that rigid mindset it is difficult to expect any liberalisation of monetary policy. But there are other parameters that have changed. Food inflation was down in September if that is any comfort. More than that, the budget deficit will be reduced with a cut in subsidies on diesel. There are also initiatives being taken on reforms. Obviously, the RBI needs to tune its policy to fit the new situation. If the RBI does change its stance, what instrument is it likely to use?

Time for real reforms, but low-hanging fruits remain

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

What seemed to be a lost cause merely three months ago has staged a remarkable comeback: the Indian government’s zeal for reform. After many months of dithering, the ruling Congress party remembered that it had the spine to stand up to fierce opposition from various state governments, finally getting its way on certain measures.

India Market Weekahead – Reforms, RBI rate cut could help Nifty break 5,800

Photo

There was consolidation within a narrow Nifty band of 5,640 and 5,720 last week, with a bit of volatility and a flat closing at 5,684.

Heavyweight results and political heat dominated the mood on the street. The government’s reform agenda continued with a Group of Ministers (GoM) panel clearing a watered down land acquisition bill, a development which was cheered by industry leaders only to be later vetoed by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. The much awaited expose by activist-turned-politician Arvind Kejriwal failed to create ripples.

The RBI and its inflation dilemma

Photo

(Arvind Chari is a senior fund manager of Quantum Asset Management Company Private Limited. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Quantum AMC or Reuters.)

The wholesale price index number for September (7.81 percent) poses a dilemma for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). With the finance ministry leaving no opportunity to make its case for lower interest rates and exhorting the RBI to take ‘calibrated risks’, the recent inflation data gives no comfort to the RBI to go ahead and confidently cut the repo rate in its October policy review.

Banks as a shop for insurance

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The concept of insurance plans being sold through banks is called ‘bancassurance’ and there is a lot of interest in this distribution channel from all the stakeholders - customers, banks, insurance companies and the regulator.

If the U.S. and EU slide into recession

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

There are apprehensions that the U.S. and EU could drift into recession again. The economic crisis of 2008 unnerved every country, with growth either turning negative or falling drastically. The recovery from that recession was weak and any relapse could be prolonged.

India market weekahead: Consolidation seen, earnings in focus

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

October has been touted as a difficult month for stocks, though for the Indian markets there didn’t seem to be anything stopping the repeat show of October 2011 until the flash crash on 5th.

When will India’s reforms show results?

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a long silence the spell has finally been broken. The second phase of reforms in the country has begun with almost the same conviction as the first but under different conditions. The 1991 reforms were under compulsion but the present reforms are voluntary. This is because the last 20 years have been a test to prove to ourselves that reforms help and they have substantially helped to make the country an emerging market economy.

Temporary market correction an opportunity to buy

Photo

(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Opposition party protests against the UPA coalition government’s economic reforms could not puncture market sentiment in the past four weeks. One domestic brokerage house dealer’s “fat finger” did it in just a few seconds.

  • Editors & Key Contributors