Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

Some pain needed for long-term growth story

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

The senior Bush’s call for a new world order following the end of the Cold War began unravelling authoritarian regimes which formed its delivery mechanism around the world.

In India, it meant dismantling the command economy influenced by the Soviet model, enforced through the government’s involvement in business and concentration of power at the centre.

It is hardly surprising that Indian polity, most of which leans left-of-centre, is opposed to reforms leading to economic liberalisation. After all, as the main beneficiaries of that set-up, their very political identity is at stake.

Trade freedom: how imports support U.S. jobs

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Conventional wisdom says that exports are beneficial and imports are harmful. Conventional wisdom is wrong. A key element of this misperception is the mistaken idea that imports into a country cost jobs there. In fact, imports contribute to job creation.

QE3 could boost Nifty to 5,550-5,600 in the short term

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian markets have been buoyant since the European Central Bank’s decision on the unlimited sovereign bond buying program announced last week and the German Constitutional Court’s nod on Wednesday for the same.

Private life insurance companies still struggling

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) has again come to the rescue of the industry in the financial year ending July 2012. While 23 private players together have a marginal dip in business (-1 pct), LIC has powered ahead with 23 pct growth in new business premium collection.

Overseas cues to drive market but policy paralysis may cap gains

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(The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The European Central Bank (ECB) came to the rescue of world markets including India, which had a spirited rally on Friday to wipe out the losses of the past two weeks. The rally continued during the special session on Saturday to close the week at 5359, gaining about 1.9 pct. The week started on a positive note due to the recommendation on General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) dilution but failed to maintain momentum due to various disappointing data points as well as the political imbroglio.

Rating downgrade a credible threat for India

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(Rajiv Deep Bajaj is the Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Bajaj Capital Ltd. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian stock markets have hardly gone anywhere since June, with the Nifty hovering in the 8-9 pct range. But the coming months may see a breakout of this range as volatility, as measured by the India VIX index, seems to be rebounding from four-year lows, after having fallen for three months in a row. A short-term break, out of the range, on the downside seems more probable.

Economic consequences of deadlock in Parliament

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The monsoon session of Parliament has been a washout without any important business being transacted. This has been made out to be a political strategy on the part of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to force early elections. Obviously, the Congress-led coalition is unlikely to oblige. The unintended victim is the economy which has been stopped from getting back to growth.

Indian markets stuck in a rut

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It’s now been close to four years since domestic and global financial markets have been in a state of flux, plagued by uncertainty, as a slowdown ensures that government after government revises its growth forecast downwards.

GAAR-supported bounceback tough to sustain

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

A reversal after four weeks of gains saw the Nifty closing 2.38 pct lower at 5258. The mid-cap segment of the market caved in earlier with the large caps holding fort till Thursday. The Parliament logjam continued on the “Coalgate” issue and hopes of any worthwhile business being conducted in this monsoon session are dim. Given the political scenario, the war-rooms of political parties are getting into election mode, which could be earlier than 2014. This too will hardly raise hopes for Indian markets as the electorate seems too fractured to have a strong government which would have the ability to push through reforms, including non-populist ones.

Challenging times but hopes of recovery after 2014 polls

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

These are possibly the most challenging times for India because, simply put, every goal post seems to be oscillating.

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