Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

Challenges ahead for Narendra Modi

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Supporters of Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, prime ministerial candidate for India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), wear masks depicting Modi outside their party office in MumbaiThe swearing in of Narendra Modi as India’s next prime minister is imminent. Voters have given the BJP an overwhelming majority and the party is all set to form the next government on its own.

Modi, who ran a blistering campaign on the promise of better governance and a crackdown on corruption that had progressively hobbled the Congress-led UPA government, raised huge expectations among a jaded and weary populace.

The state of the economy, national security and demand for inclusive growth for over a billion people stare at the incoming prime minister, who will have to hit the ground running.

The much talked-about Gujarat model will now be tested in Delhi, and the challenge for Modi will be to extrapolate the state’s successes to a larger and more complex national level.

Debating India’s election cheat sheets

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

As the sun set on the final phase of polling in India on May 12, newsrooms were waiting impatiently for 6.30 p.m. — the deadline set by the Election Commission for airing survey results on post-poll predictions.

Elaborate studio sets packed with guests and news anchors flanked by psephologists armed with data sets were all waiting to declare that Narendra Modi is coming to Delhi.

Markets Weekahead: ‎Time to book profits and not be greedy

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The highlight of the past week was a stupendous 3 percent rally on Friday with the Nifty ending at a record high of 6858. Investors were in a sombre mood earlier in the week, when the market was threatening to break a crucial support level around 6650.

The sudden turn on Friday and the ferocity of the move took most participants by surprise. It was a combination of fresh buying as well as short covering which resulted in a near 200 point rally. It seemed everyone wanted to join the bandwagon due to the fear of missing a bigger rally.

The Modi view on security issues

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A Sadhu or a Hindu holyman wears a badge with an image of Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, prime ministerial candidate for India's main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), outside an ashram in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh May 6, 2014. REUTERS/Anindito MukherjeeResults of the five-week general election will be announced on May 16, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Narendra Modi favoured to win.

Thus Modi’s views on major security and strategic issues facing India acquire greater salience.

A shortcut to industrial recovery

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A worker sprays water over piles of coal at Mundra Port Coal Terminal in the western Indian state of GujaratThe rate of growth in infrastructure industries falling to 2.6 percent in FY2013-14 came as a shock. That’s because these industries had been consistently growing at relatively high rates in the previous three years, in spite of the drop in production in other industries.

Infrastructure industries include coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizer, steel, cement and electricity. Production of natural gas has been shrinking since FY2011-12. Even so, the infrastructure group maintained steady growth between 5 percent and 6 percent. The sharp drop last year was caused by lower growth in the steel and cement industries.

India market weekahead – Partial profit-booking may be prudent before election results

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The so-called “rally of hope” stuttered during the week as Indian markets turned volatile. The Nifty closed at 6695, down 1.30 percent. The fear of the El Nino effect and the IMD forecast of below-normal rainfall seems to have made investors cautious.

With election results two weeks away, investors need to take a stand in the next few days. Although there can be a number of outcomes, only two would be termed positive for the markets – a landslide victory or a comfortable majority to form a stable government. The other scenarios such as a fractured mandate, a third front coalition or a weak UPA or NDA coalition would deflate the sentiment built up till date as the markets have already discounted a favourable outcome.

India’s next foreign policy

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(This piece comes from Project Syndicate. The opinions expressed are the author’s own)

A guest holds the flags of the United States and India and a program in the East Room at the White House in Washington, November 24, 2009.     REUTERS/Jim Young/FilesNext month, India will complete its marathon election. A new government is expected to assume power at the end of May, and, if the polls prove correct, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has named Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, will lead that government.

In defence of the defensives: Why IT, pharma stocks are not pariahs

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Expectation that the ongoing general election will throw up a stable government has spurred a return to risk in domestic equities. The consequent rally has meant those favoured defensives of the sluggish times – information technology and pharma stocks – received a shearing.

The CNX IT index shed 7.8 percent and CNX Pharma 10.1 percent in March – even as the benchmark Nifty surged 6.8 percent.

Third party premium for motor insurance increased

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

It is compulsory for every vehicle in India to have a third party insurance, which covers risks involving damage or loss to others caused by the vehicle you drive.

Since it is mandatory, the pricing has traditionally been administered by the insurance regulator, IRDA. With the price controlled and risk unlimited, the portfolio is bound to look messy.

The reform club

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

That custodian of the English language, the Oxford English Dictionary, describes a bubble as “anything fragile, unsubstantial, empty or worthless; a deceptive show”. Could this description apply to the current frenzy for “reform” that is seemingly sweeping the global economy? The answer is “yes, in part”. While there are some genuine attempts at reform, market expectations for reform will inevitably be disappointed in some parts of the world.

The global financial crisis has prompted politicians to advocate economic reform in two ways. First, the crisis demonstrated that the status quo needed to be changed — and in many cases that change required sizeable structural change. Second, as the structure of the world economy has changed (lower global capital flows, slower global trade, etc.) so economies have had to adapt the way that their economies are structured.

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