Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

Solving the Indo-Japanese equation

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

In geopolitics, neighbours rarely make great alliances. However, distance does not impede strong partnerships.

In the case of Japan and India, historical bonds nurtured by Buddhism and the Japanese providing the wherewithal to freedom fighter Subhas Chandra Bose for the Indian National Army, provides for the necessary people-to-people connect.

The Japanese emperor’s recent visit to India is not just historic. In the context of the congruence of threat perception of the two countries, it was the expected announcement to the Asia-Pacific region of a partnership to counter an increasingly belligerent China.

The common threats that both nations face include oil from west Asia traversing sea lanes that the Chinese could interfere with, and territorial disputes. Indians face an increasing Chinese cartographic invasion that encompasses almost the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh. Repeated incursions across Indian perceptions of the line of actual control exacerbate the threat. The Japanese, on the other hand, are faced with Chinese claims on the Senkaku islands.

Slow change comes to India a year after Delhi gang rape

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

One year ago, a 23-year-old physiotherapy student was raped and murdered. Her story showed the world that women across India are viewed as dispensable, undeserving of full human rights.

One year later, what has changed?

It is heartening that the case of Nirbhaya, as she is known, led to the setting up of the Justice Verma commission that recommended strengthening outdated laws to protect women and their rights. Although change has been slow, more cases of sexual violence are being reported rather than silenced, scuttled or quietly settled. However, crime statistics and prosecution rates show that most of these crimes go unnoticed, unreported and absorbed into the culture of “that’s the way things are.”

Indian hedge funds get knocked down but get up again

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The fortunes of hedge funds focused on India continue to twist and turn, with many plots and subplots. After witnessing widespread losses and heavy redemptions in 2008, Indian hedge fund managers bounced back remarkably to post a 50 percent return in 2009. They continued their good form in 2010, delivering healthy gains of 12 percent during the year.

But in 2011, the managers witnessed losses amid declining markets and a depreciating rupee. At the end of that year, many managers expressed confidence in the underlying market for the following year and predicted gains for the rupee by mid-2012 — both these predictions came to pass. The Eurekahedge Indian Hedge Fund Index was up 13.13 percent in 2012, making it the strongest regional hedge fund mandate for the year. Some of the funds even witnessed asset inflows in 2012 and early 2013, a rarity for Indian hedge funds since the financial crisis.

Time to ride the rally in the run-up to 2014 elections

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Election fever in the world’s biggest democracy is gripping India in the run-up to general elections due in 2014. In the coming months, politics will be in focus especially among investors.

Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were a prelude to next year’s election. The four states make up 72 seats in the Lok Sabha. Historical data suggests the electorate votes on the same lines for the Lok Sabha in case state polls are held within 12 months of the general elections.

How the U.S. Fed’s tapering can affect Indian markets

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

It was never expected to be permanent. Quantitative Easing (QE), designed to pep up the U.S. economy after the financial crisis of 2008-09, has survived for five years. The United States is now on a rebound and unemployment is receding. That has tempted the U.S. Federal Reserve to reconsider tapering its economic stimulus.

This was first announced on May 17 and sent tremors through global markets. Asian markets were the most affected; India was worst-hit, having come to depend on FII investment. The knee-jerk reaction of FIIs was to reduce exposure to emerging market economies in the expectation that liquidity would dry up and interest rates would harden.

If change does come in 2014

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The market is pregnant with expectations of a change after the general elections which must be held by next May. You would have to travel far and wide before you come across anyone in India’s financial market who is not hoping – even praying – for change.

The mood on the current policy direction is so gloomy that any alternative is looking like manna from heaven.

Taking stock of the insurance sector

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

With half the financial year gone by, it’s time to take stock of the insurance sector. Let me start with life insurance.

It was a tough year as new norms for a majority of insurance products – which were to be effective Oct. 1, 2013 but later postponed to Jan. 1, 2014 – were hanging like a sword over the business.

Which inflation should the RBI target?

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is entrusted with the responsibility of maintaining price and financial stability, and it has used interest rate and money supply to pursue this objective with unwavering determination. Yet, inflation has survived with matching persistence.

The index that the RBI uses to target inflation is the wholesale price index (WPI), which is the combined price of a commodity basket comprising 676 items. A few prices in this basket can be too volatile or outside the scope of the RBI’s monetary policy, leading to poor results.

India Markets Weekahead: Results of state elections a key driver

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Markets had been on a roller-coaster ride but closed weak for the third week in the row with the Nifty in the 5950-6000 range providing support.

A hint from the U.S. Federal Reserve on tapering its bond-buying programme was enough to spook the markets. Though this is expected in the first quarter of the new year, it remains to be seen whether chairman-elect Janet Yellen’s dovish stance would postpone it further.

Mall developers take to revenue-sharing to woo retailers

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Over the last five to seven years, the retail segment in India has evolved towards a more organized pricing structure. After the real estate boom of 2005-06, when property prices increased to as much as 40 percent of a retailer’s operating costs, developers seemed more willing to share the business risk. They moved from a per-square-foot rental model to versions of the minimum guarantee and/or the revenue share model. Most investment-grade properties in major cities now follow this model, unlike shopping centres in smaller cities.

In the original model, rentals varied depending on the store and location. But with increased brand awareness and rising vacancies, developers saw the need for a customized tenancy mix, adopting efficient mall management techniques while protecting retailer interests to maximize their own earnings.

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