Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Market Weekahead: Too good to last much longer

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The market has continued its upward move for the sixth consecutive week, gaining over 15 pct in 2012 and 20 pct over its December bottom without any worthwhile correction. The excellent market rally during the past few weeks is helped by global liquidity and strong FII inflows. However, mild profit booking was seen as the Nifty approached the all important resistance zone of 5400-5450.

Economic data that came in during the week was subdued. India’s trade deficit rose to $148.7 billion during the first 10 months (April – January FY12). India’s GDP growth is expected to be 6.9 pct, according to advance estimates, which is the slowest growth since 2008-09 when India registered a growth rate of 6.7 pct.

Industrial production rose a slower-than-expected 1.8 pct in December which was sharply lower than 5.9 pct growth in November. The data was especially disappointing as other indicators like PMI and car sales were showing definite improvement. The markets did not react too adversely though we saw a bout of correction as buoyant markets look for the brighter side of any news flow.

India Market Weekahead: Use opportunity to partially book profits

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets surged over 2 pct during the week and are up 14 pct YTD driven by liquidity inflows from foreign investors, a CRR cut by the RBI, hopes of interest rate cuts in coming months, positive economic data and the government’s intention to kick-start the process on the policy front. The rally was unaffected by the court verdict on the 2G scam and the indices resumed an upward march.

India Market Weekahead: Time to take profits but increase exposure on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets extended a winning streak and gained 3 pct during the week driven by strong inflows from foreign institutional investors, a decent set of quarterly numbers from key companies, positive news flows on the policy front and the RBI decision to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points.

India Market Weekahead: RBI policy holds the key

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets extended a rally for the third consecutive week led by strong FII inflows. FIIs have pumped in $1.2 billion so far this year as risk sentiment stabilised after several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and overwhelming demand. Improvement in U.S. economic data, rupee appreciation and December quarter earnings exceeding lower expectations helped the market rally nearly 8 pct in three weeks.

Start topping up portfolio on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian equities have posted a good show so far this year with gains of around 5 pct. Receding euro zone debt worries and a stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production in November have strengthened investors’ sentiment. Food inflation continued to show a negative trend which also aided sentiment.

Volatile but undecided markets, awaiting cues

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Trading for the New Year began on a positive note after the government’s decision to allow foreign nationals to invest directly in the country’s listed companies and after data showed a sharp improvement in manufacturing activity in December.

India Market Weekahead: Testing times but patience to be rewarded

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Key indices witnessed a deep cut this week with the Nifty falling below the psychologically important support level of 4700 for the first time since November 2009. Experts have begun predicting a crash and rightly so, as all the levers of the economy have gone for a toss with pessimistic news flows. So the moot question is whether the market has discounted all the negatives? If yes, then why are Indian markets underperforming global counterparts week after week?

India Market Weekahead: Economic data to provide cues

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a sharp bounceback last week, Indian markets were not able to hold on to the gains and corrected by 3.7 pct during the week. The overall tone remained bearish on domestic concerns revolving around the government’s inability to push through key reforms and uncertainty over the Euro debt crisis and over the outcome of the European Union (EU) summit.

India Market Weekahead: EU summit, pace of local reforms to drive markets

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After falling to a new two-year low the previous week, the markets reversed a downtrend and benchmark indices logged their best weekly gain since July 2009.

India Market Weekahead: Investor confidence, patience to be tested

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The week that went by was quite a turbulent one which witnessed the Nifty plummet to a 2-year closing low on concerns of slowing growth, weak corporate earnings and a faltering rupee. Fears of a global economic slowdown continued to weigh on Indian stocks.

With increasing dollar demand in India as foreign investors withdrew from the country, the Indian rupee witnessed a sharp slide this week. At 52.76, the rupee plunged to record lows as fears of an unstable euro zone and a gloomy global economy persisted.

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