Expert Zone

Straight from the Specialists

India Market Weekahead: Brace for volatility within a range

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It was a topsy-turvy week for markets as the benchmark indices hovered between positive and negative territory to finally end with a loss of 0.7 percent. A lacklustre budget initially triggered the weakness followed by a spate of negative events resulting in a fifth consecutive week of decline for the markets. The newly appointed railway minister’s move to roll back fares also unnerved investors.

A leaked draft report of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) revealed that between 2004 and 2009, the government gave away 155 coal acreages to private and public companies without a proper auctioning process. It is estimated that due to this, the government exchequer lost about $210 bln. The CAG later quashed reports of losses from the government’s coal block allocations policy. However, the already dwindling faith of investors in the current government got another jolt in the wake of numerous other scams that rocked the nation in the past.

The rupee weakened against the dollar beyond 51.30 as confidence in the global economy deteriorated again following weaker-than-expected Chinese and euro zone data. Weakness in equity markets and a strong dollar demand from oil importers kept the currency weak. With risk appetite on the weaker side due to doubts over capital inflows, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, undermined by high oil prices. The global economic outlook will remain an important market focus. Any further evidence of deterioration in the Chinese and the euro zone outlook would result in a defensive stance on risk appetite with a shift into instruments such as the yen and dollar.

India Market Weekahead: Global markets, FII action to be primary drivers

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

It was a flattish close for the markets in what was supposed to be an eventful week. But the biggest event — the budget – turned out to be a non-event.

It’s Budget week but be ready to book profits

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets ended in negative territory for the third straight week after the ruling Congress party suffered a setback in the recently held assembly elections, clouding the government’s ability to push major economic reforms. However, a sharp pullback of 2 percent seen on Friday saved the indexes from suffering major losses.

Brace for volatility, but utilise opportunity

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

After a 21 percent run so far this year due to unabated liquidity flow, markets paused for two weeks in a row with a cut of close to 5 percent. Data showing a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 December spooked investors while macroeconomic worries arising from high oil prices also weighed on sentiments.

India Market Weekahead: Need for caution as correction may be steep

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The Nifty extended its rally for the seventh consecutive week to touch 5600, returning 3 pct for the week and making it one of the best market rallies in recent times. The bourse continued to show strength on signs that euro zone officials would approve a long-awaited bailout for Greece next week to avoid any disorderly default.

India Market Weekahead: Too good to last much longer

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The market has continued its upward move for the sixth consecutive week, gaining over 15 pct in 2012 and 20 pct over its December bottom without any worthwhile correction. The excellent market rally during the past few weeks is helped by global liquidity and strong FII inflows. However, mild profit booking was seen as the Nifty approached the all important resistance zone of 5400-5450.

India Market Weekahead: Use opportunity to partially book profits

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets surged over 2 pct during the week and are up 14 pct YTD driven by liquidity inflows from foreign investors, a CRR cut by the RBI, hopes of interest rate cuts in coming months, positive economic data and the government’s intention to kick-start the process on the policy front. The rally was unaffected by the court verdict on the 2G scam and the indices resumed an upward march.

India Market Weekahead: Time to take profits but increase exposure on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets extended a winning streak and gained 3 pct during the week driven by strong inflows from foreign institutional investors, a decent set of quarterly numbers from key companies, positive news flows on the policy front and the RBI decision to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points.

India Market Weekahead: RBI policy holds the key

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Markets extended a rally for the third consecutive week led by strong FII inflows. FIIs have pumped in $1.2 billion so far this year as risk sentiment stabilised after several European debt auctions saw lower borrowing rates and overwhelming demand. Improvement in U.S. economic data, rupee appreciation and December quarter earnings exceeding lower expectations helped the market rally nearly 8 pct in three weeks.

Start topping up portfolio on correction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Indian equities have posted a good show so far this year with gains of around 5 pct. Receding euro zone debt worries and a stronger-than-expected growth in industrial production in November have strengthened investors’ sentiment. Food inflation continued to show a negative trend which also aided sentiment.

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