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Straight from the Specialists

India Markets Weekahead: Time to lighten commitments as extended honeymoon almost over

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The past week was one of the most eventful post the general elections, and the action continued till Saturday with a landmark speech by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the U.N. General Assembly and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa Jayaram being sentenced to four years in jail in a corruption case. Markets were volatile and the Nifty closed the week at 7,968, down 2 percent despite a recovery on Friday.

The week started on a positive note but weaker European manufacturing data and concerns about growth in China led the markets to crack.  The Supreme Court’s decision to charge a penalty as well as deallocate almost all coal blocks awarded since 1993 led to another bout of selling in power, metal and banking stocks.

The deferring of decision to raise gas prices was also viewed negatively by investors as the new government was expected to be quick and decisive. As markets were sinking further below 7,900 levels, a ratings upgrade of the country by S&P came as a shot in the arm, helping the Nifty to bounce back above 7,950.  The launch of “Make in India” campaign was hailed by industry stalwarts as a game changer, boosting sagging market morale.

People walk past the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) building in Mumbai May 13, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/FilesMaharashtra’s assembly polls in October is being viewed as an important event to judge Modi’s continuing popularity, especially following the BJP’s weak performances in recent by-polls. The Sena-BJP combine was expected to have a cakewalk due to anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress-NCP combine. But the breakup of both these coalitions could throw up unexpected results and new post-poll alliances. A weak Maharashtra government may not bode well for the industrialization story.

India Markets Weekahead: Investors to remain bullish in election season

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

A surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the repo rate unchanged and a dovish statement from Ben Bernanke in his last news conference as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman improved sentiment with the Nifty closing 106 points higher at 6,274.

Markets tottered for three days during the week amid fears the Nifty could break a crucial support zone between 6,120 and 6,140. Investors had discounted a 25 bps hike in monetary policy based on inflation numbers that were the highest in 14 months. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan should be lauded for taking a practical stance as food inflation is expected to cool considerably in December due to improved supplies and the monsoon effect.

India Markets Weekahead – Opportunity for those who missed out rally

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

It was a second straight week of losses of 1.59 percent with the Nifty closing at 5,903. As discussed in this column a fortnight back, we are in a phase which would tire out the participants and change the mood to a negative consensus on the street.

India Markets Weekahead – Still time to tank up for a pre-budget rally

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

The Nifty has crossed 6,000 levels while the Sensex breached the psychological barrier of 20,000 to touch a two-year high — triggered by an overdrive of government action, encouraging macro numbers, corporate results and no bad news internationally.

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