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Straight from the Specialists

Markets Weekahead – India story looks better; global headwinds could weigh

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The truncated Diwali week saw the Nifty closing at 8,014, recovering from a “breakdown” scare and ending about 3 percent higher to welcome the new Hindu calendar year – Samvat 2071.

The markets were aided by the performance of the BJP in assembly elections and a slew of reforms, which laid to rest the growing sense of inaction on the policy front. These included the long-awaited diesel deregulation, gas pricing and labour reforms, and a roadmap on coal sector reforms.

Development was the key poll plank for the BJP and the state election results will give the central government renewed confidence and impetus to push forward its reform agenda.

The global environment has also been kind. Lower commodity prices, especially crude oil, have truly been a blessing for the government. If oil prices had hovered above $110, there was a bleak chance of either the diesel deregulation or any hope of reining in the fiscal deficit.

China’s WMD cooperation with Pakistan looms over Xi-Modi talks

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily those of Thomson Reuters)

The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to India and his meeting with Indian Prime Minister  Narendra Modi this week has elicited considerable positive interest in both countries. It has the potential to recast the uneasy Asian strategic framework, and by extension the relations of emerging global powers that are currently clouded by acrimony and mutual mistrust.

Afghanistan a building block for China-India ties

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The appointment of a former ambassador to Kabul and New Delhi by China to the role of Special Envoy for Afghanistan highlights China’s thinking of what it can do in Afghanistan.

China is not seeking a leadership role in the country, but is rather looking for regional partners to support its efforts. A key partner is being sought in New Delhi where the Narendra Modi administration has welcomed Xi Jinping’s early overtures for a closer broader relationship. The opportunity presents itself that Afghanistan’s two largest Asian neighbours might be on the cusp of closer cooperation to help the nation onto a more stable footing.

Chinese general warns India even as Antony visits Beijing

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

India’s Defence Minister A. K. Antony is in Beijing on an official visit and a provocative curtain-raiser was provided by a retired major general of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) who cautioned India not to “provoke new problems and increase military deployments at the border area and stir up new trouble.”

Predictably, this statement by Major General Luo Yuan, who is associated with the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences, hit the headlines in both countries. Luo is no stranger to such controversy and has in the past made shrill and hostile remarks to local media and in Chinese cyberspace about Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. One assertion – since denied – was that China should bomb Tokyo if Japan stepped out of line in relation to the long-standing island dispute between the two East Asian neighbours.

Word and deed must match in Xi Jinping’s Boao speech

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily of Reuters)

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s maiden speech at the Boao forum is to be welcomed – but cautiously. The vision he has outlined of harmonious co-operation and co-existence among members of the global community has echoes of the 1954 Sino-Indian panchsheel (five principles of peaceful coexistence) agreement. History reminds us that the two Asian giants engaged in a brief border war in October 1962.

Low-key outcome as Singh meets Xi on BRICS sidelines

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The BRICS summit in Durban last week, which brought the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa together, is best recalled for the rich visual imagery that Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked. Putin suggested that the five countries were like the lion, elephant, buffalo, leopard and rhinoceros. Notwithstanding the normative vision for the developing world that was outlined by the leaders, the subtext is a logical extension of this animal metaphor.

Xi Jinping at the helm in Beijing, responsibility looms large

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The carefully orchestrated and much awaited leadership transition in Beijing was formally concluded on Thursday with the elevation of Xi Jinping as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Bashing China won’t fix U.S. economy

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

Both ends of the political spectrum seem to be competing to be tougher on China economic issues. They’re both wrong.

Can BRICS evolve into a power bloc?

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The fourth BRICS meeting held in New Delhi on March 29 did not end with mere rhetoric; it agreed to some substantive mutual arrangements that would promote common interests.

The rare earths distraction

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(The views expressed in this column are the author’s own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The U.S., EU and Japan are suing China in the World Trade Organisation (WTO), calling Chinese export quotas on rare earth elements an illegal trade practice.

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